DVS retired?
By 2025 the European Union prepares to introduce a new Euro-7 environmental standard. Emission limits for nitrogen oxides will drop to 30 mg/km. Vehicles with such clean engines are predicted to cost more, affecting buyers across the market.
The proposed rules could be read as a push toward phasing out combustion engines. From 2025, many European carmakers plan to focus on electric powertrains. Despite roughly 17 percent of new car sales in the EU, a rapid switch to electric vehicles is unlikely in the short term.
Even the largest European truck manufacturers, including Daimler Trucks, Scania, and MAN, do not anticipate halting combustion engine production before 2040. The consensus among many automakers interviewed is that a full shift to alternative propulsion will take longer than imagined.
Main reasons
1. Limited charging infrastructure
Electric vehicles depend on a robust charging network, which cannot be built overnight. Car owners already struggle to locate charging points, and a surge in EVs could place unsustainable loads on the electricity grid.
2. Battery costs
Advanced batteries rely on rare earths and high-tech components that come with high price tags. Sanctions and supply chain disruptions add further difficulty to battery production and procurement.
3. Environmental impact of battery production
A substantial share of electricity is still generated from coal, contributing to pollution. Lithium extraction requires significant water resources and often impacts ecosystems on a large scale. The full life cycle of combustion engines is presented as less hazardous than that of hybrid and electric options when considering raw materials, manufacturing, operation, and end of life.
4. Cold climate performance
Battery efficiency decreases as temperatures drop, and energy capacity falls over time. In colder regions, conventional engines can still have an edge due to better reliability in low temperatures.
Expert commentary
Anna Utkina, Head of Press Service of the AvtoSpetsCentre Group of Companies
Hydrogen as a smoother transition
From Moscow, several electric cars show signs of battery depletion on cold roads, worsening traffic. In subzero temperatures, electric ranges can shrink significantly. The viewpoint shared is that internal combustion engines may persist longer, with a gradual move toward alternative fuels like hydrogen, especially in harsh climates.
5. Reliability concerns
Electronics in control systems can exhibit unpredictable behavior as components age. Fully electric vehicles are not immune to such issues, making reliability a shared concern across propulsion types.
6. Range for long trips
Long-haul freight faces challenges with current battery ranges. Heavy trucks are likely to continue using internal combustion engines while gradually becoming cleaner through enhanced emissions controls. Light vehicles can travel hundreds of kilometers between charges, and new fast-charging technologies can restore range quickly, such as a Hyundai Ioniq 5 which can add roughly 480-500 km in about 20 minutes.
7. Economic viability
Producing internal combustion engine vehicles often remains cheaper than equivalent electric or hybrid models, influencing market economics and consumer decisions.
Carmakers and the future of combustion engines
Most automakers interviewed, including notable names like VAZ, Porsche, and Nissan, offered ambiguous views on the long-term fate of gasoline engines. Audi indicated petrol cars will persist but with a growing share of electric and hybrid models. Subaru stated a cautious stance on a full shift. Mitsubishi echoed concerns about the practical limitations of electric vehicles, noting a niche role rather than a broad replacement. Volvo presented a clearer trajectory, signaling a staged electrification: starting in 2022 with hybrid and mild hybrid models, progressing toward a fully electric lineup by 2030. Expert commentary
Roman Timashov, Service Director of AVTODOM Altufievo
ICE vehicles may gradually disappear over the next three decades, though petrol and diesel will still serve extreme or demanding conditions. The adaptation of combustion engines will continue to improve through optimized processes and better exhaust treatment, allowing petrol engines to meet strict standards for the foreseeable future.
In regions with extreme climates, electric vehicles face significant hurdles due to battery sensitivity to cold. The trend suggests that, while electric and hybrid vehicles will grow, combustion engines will retain leadership in long journeys and challenging environments for an extended period.
Not for Russia
Technology keeps advancing, and electric transport is evolving. Yet until significantly higher power reserves and practical performance are achieved, combustion engines will remain competitive in expansive terrains. For the time being, petrol and diesel fuels remain abundant here.
- Spare parts and consumables under the TM Za Rulem are available in bulk through the company store.
- Behind the wheel continues to be a topic on Telegram.