Dealers in Russia anticipate a notable shift in the mix of Chinese automotive brands represented in the market. Izvestia reported this perspective, citing the head of the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers ROAD, Alexey Podshchekoldin. The estimate for 2024 suggests about 60 Chinese brands would be present in the federation, including those not officially entering the domestic market. This projection reflects a broader expectation that the scale of production in China could translate into intensified competition on Russian roads, even as some brands may struggle to establish lasting presence within the country.
Podshchekoldin noted that China’s automotive sector operates at a capacity of roughly 30 million vehicles per year, while actual output sits around 24–25 million units. In his view, Chinese manufacturers will strive to push as many vehicles as possible into the Russian market. He predicted that, over the next few years, only a fraction of the current 60 brands would endure in Russia, potentially leaving as few as 10 to 20 brands in the long run. This assessment underscores the potential for consolidation as competition intensifies and market conditions evolve. – (ROAD attribution)
According to the association, vehicle sales in Russia for January through February 2024 rose by about 77 percent year over year, reaching roughly 201,300 units in total. Within this period, around 68,500 units (34 percent) were produced in Russia, while approximately 113,200 units represented vehicles from China. The remainder, about 19,600 units, were imports from other countries, comprising roughly 10 percent of the total. This breakdown illustrates a strong shift toward Chinese imports during the start of the year, alongside a significant share of locally produced vehicles as producers and dealers respond to demand and pricing dynamics. (ROAD attribution)
Earlier in the year, ROAD indicated that stock levels among dealers in Russia could be substantially depleted in the coming months. This stock drawdown was expected to lead to price adjustments for 2024 model-year cars as inventories tightened and supply chains recalibrated. The forecast suggested that pricing for vehicles produced in 2024 could diverge notably from previous patterns as dealers manage limited availability and shifting demand. (ROAD attribution)
In a separate development, Pushkov’s earlier remarks drew attention to a different set of market signals, including commentary on infrastructure and trade-related events outside Russia. Observers noted that signals from the United States, such as transportation and infrastructure developments, could influence global supply chains and market sentiment, though the direct impact on the Russian auto sector remains nuanced and contingent on a range of geopolitical and economic factors. (ROAD attribution)