Despite the stabilization of the ruble in April, new car prices have not returned to January levels. There was only a local decrease – in some salons, on some models or on individual copies. Cars are still one and a half to two times more expensive than in the middle of winter, although dealers were not childish then.
It won’t get any cheaper in the near future. The delivery schedule is broken, the assembly works intermittently and all over the world. Virtually all European, Japanese, American, Korean and Chinese brands have closed their factories. The “underproduction” of cars on a global scale runs into the millions. And that will remain so for a long time to come, and two German concerns have explicitly indicated that they want to maintain the deficit for a few more years. It is more profitable to produce less and sell more expensively.
Where and how to buy new cars now? Are they available somewhere at reasonable prices?
official channels
Lada dealers lure quite interesting offers. So, Tekhinkom and Torgmash in early May assured that Grant could be bought for 728 thousand, and Vesta – for 1 million 122 thousand. Communication with managers gives different results: there are no live cars at these prices, there is one Grant for 850, subject to trade-in and a loan. Vesta is cheaper than 1.5 million, not to be found.
Logan is even more expensive – most likely it will be richly equipped and less than two million. Rio and Solaris – from two and a half. Crete – about four. It is better not to think about Sportage and Santa Fe.
Kaliningrad Avtotor has been collecting Korean cars for the longest time, but went on a company holiday in May. The Tula factory Haval and the coast “Mazda Sollers” – too. Admittedly, the last two claimed they would just keep working.
Still, the Mazda 6, CX‑5 and CX‑9 are available! The indicated price for the CX-5 is 3-4 million rubles, depending on the configuration. The real price – add another half a million, it should be enough.
The exchange rate of the ruble does not affect prices in any way. And it has no impact until the production process in all factories stabilizes.
grey area
One of the methods used by gray traders is the sale of the remains of previous production years. For example, you can find the Kia Rio 2020. It is not difficult to believe in the indicated price “from 819 thousand”, but everything falls into place when mentioning a trade-in “on very favorable terms” and a loan.
For last year’s Renault Duster they ask 770 thousand, also with trade-in and a loan. However, an attempt to book a car failed: it turned out that at the moment only Kaptur with a 1.3 turbo engine and a CVT is for sale for 1.5 million. Duster is clearly a bluff, as is Captur’s price.
Gray dealers change offers, prices and sales conditions very quickly. Often they announce a “liquidation of the warehouse” with a significant price reduction – to lure buyers. In any case, it is necessary to read subtle explanations in fine print. There you can see that the loan interest is 8% – subject to a deposit of 20% of the cost, additional purchases of additional phases for a certain amount and registration of insurance with a certain company. Otherwise the rate is already 28% or 48% – the guys are not shy.
Buying from a gray dealer is a big risk. No wonder there are so many ads on the web “Did you buy a car from a gray dealer? Be assisted by a lawyer! There are many ways to get a divorce – often they sell cars with hidden defects or simply seize the “non-refundable” prepayment. In the end you will never spend less than the official one Under current schemes, gray dealers get most of their cars from the same officials — and they won’t trade at a loss.
Will foreigners help us?
At some stages, first of the pandemic and then of the sanctions shocks, it became interesting to buy new cars in the neighboring countries of the EAEU. So, last year in the salons of Belarus many models were sold much cheaper than in our country. BUT this year, in March-April, Kazakhstan was very profitable: the same models were 10-30% cheaper there
Armenia did the same. But there, only premium brands turned out to be profitable: BMW, Audi, Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, which came to the showrooms directly from Europe. More basic cars in most cases come to Armenian dealers from Russian factories – and as we know, they are worth it.
It doesn’t mean at all that everyone should fly to Kazakhstan now. The situation is changing rapidly. In May, Kazakh dealers responded logically to the increased demand from the Russians by raising prices. In addition, in the salons almost the same shortage of goods was formed as in ours, at least among cheap brands.
All the nuances of buying a car in Kazakhstan are discussed here.
It makes sense to constantly monitor the market and price situation related to Belarus and Kazakhstan. The moment may well come again when the supply reacts to a decrease in demand – and it will be possible to gain 300-500 thousand rubles.
operational forecast
For some reason, market analysts agree that Russian new car prices will fall slightly over the next two or three months. This could be provided that all factories that were closed would reopen in the summer. However, there are no conditions attached to this. Even when they start, they operate chaotically, with interruptions and downtime. The point is not just in the lack of electronic components, but in general a global disruption of the supply of everything from everywhere.
Accordingly, dealers will continue to manipulate prices within an arbitrary range, with a sense of the exact limit of effective demand. And they will break our hands with perks, trade-ins, insurance and loans. When all this will stop is unclear. It is very likely that shortages and high prices will continue for many years to come. Hence the advice: take care of the cars you have and do not rush to part with them.
- What is the future of our car market? Express prediction from the editor-in-chief “Behind the wheel” here.
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