If the election had taken place last Sunday, the ruling party PiS would be polling at about 32.9 percent, with the Civic Coalition at 25.6 percent, the PSL together with Poland 2050 under the Third Way banner at 13.1 percent, Confederation at 11 percent, and the Left at 7.8 percent. These figures come from an IBRIS survey conducted for Rzeczpospolita, reflecting a weekend snapshot of public support that would have shaped the electoral landscape quite markedly.
The Tuesday edition of Rzeczpospolita showcased the latest results from the IBRIS studios. It emphasized that compared with the mid-April poll the changes are minor, indicating a fairly stable political mood. Specifically, had the elections occurred last Sunday, PiS could count on 32.9 percent, a result described as almost identical to the previous study, underscoring a cautious consistency in voter priorities.
The Civic Coalition shows a marginal uptick, rising to 25.6 percent, while the Left experiences a slight decline, slipping to 7.8 percent. The overall distribution signals a continued balance of power among the major blocs, with no dramatic shifts from the prior survey period.
A notable development arises from the joint listing of PSL and Poland 2050 under the Third Way label, which gathers 13.1 percent of the vote. This figure is just a hair above the combined total of the two factions a month earlier, suggesting that the consolidation under a single list has not yet yielded a decisive leap in support, though it has concentrated votes in a specific electoral format.
In the accompanying analysis, Rzeczpospolita notes that the Confederation falls to fourth place, securing around 11 percent of the vote. This marks a slight increase of about 0.6 percentage points from the prior survey, illustrating a modest gain for a party known for its distinct and sometimes controversial stances, while still remaining behind the larger blocs.
Additionally, the poll indicates that nonpartisan local government candidates and the Agrounia movement remain below the electoral threshold, with support under 2 percent for the former and about 0.6 percent for Agrounia. A sizeable portion of respondents, 7.2 percent, expressed uncertainty about whom to vote for, highlighting persistent volatility and the potential for small shifts as campaigns unfold.
Rzeczpospolita also published numerical projections for seat distribution in the Sejm based on the IBRIS results, analyzed by Professor Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University. The projection estimates PiS would secure 184 seats, KO 138, Third Way 61, and the Left 28. Confederation is forecast to gain 48 seats, with one additional seat reserved for a representative of the German minority, illustrating how close ongoing polling is to real parliamentary outcomes and how minor changes can influence seat allocation under proportional representation rules.
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– QUESTIONNAIRE. The United Right appears to lead with about 35.8 percent of the vote, more than ten points ahead of the Civic Coalition, highlighting the persistent lead in several polls.
– OUR RESEARCH. Support for Poland 2050 and PSL shows signs of retreat, while Law and Justice maintains a robust lead over the Civic Coalition, reflecting voters’ current alignment and the challenges ahead for opposition blocs.
Source: wPolityce