Poland’s political landscape could shift dramatically if PSL and Poland 2050 chose to contest the election on a joint list. A recent IBRiS poll, reported by Rzeczpospolita, suggests that a combined bid would secure 241 seats in the Sejm, effectively giving the opposition the ability to form a government. By contrast, if the parties run separately, the opposition would win 227 seats. These figures hinge on the d’Hondt method used in seat allocation and reflect how strategic cooperation can alter the balance of power in Poland’s parliament.
The latest IBRiS survey, commissioned by Rzeczpospolita, examined Polish party preferences under two scenarios: a full, separate start for all parties and a single, officially negotiated joint list featuring PSL and Poland 2050. The joint result surpasses the combined totals of separate starts, underscoring how electoral collaboration can amplify potential influence in the Sejm. In practical terms, the joint list could translate into more seats and a clearer path to government formation for the opposition, should the numbers hold in actual voting conditions.
– according to the report in Rzeczpospolita.
Opposition separately? PiS wins
When parties run individually, the analysis shows the opposition would reach 227 seats, while PiS and Konfederacja would still hold a governing majority if their coalition holds steady. The polling data also notes a rising profile for the Confederation, which gains three percentage points since February as it starts to appear as a distinct political force, independent of both PiS and the broader democratic opposition, thanks to ongoing debate and positioning.
Professor Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University comments that some voters from the Civic Coalition, particularly those with liberal leanings, might shift away from the left-leaning direction and consider Konfederacja as an alternative. The poll highlights that voters weigh not only party loyalty but also the potential impact of coalition strategies on governing capability and policy direction.
In the poll results, 34.3 percent would vote for PiS or the United Right if all parties ran separately. The Civic Coalition attracts 26.4 percent, the Confederation 9 percent, the left consisting of the SLD, Spring, and the Together party 8.5 percent, Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 at 7.9 percent, and PSL – Polish Coalition at 6.2 percent. About 7.7 percent of respondents are unsure who to vote for. If Poland 2050 runs jointly with PSL and the Local Government Movement Yes for Poland, support shifts to 15.3 percent for the joint list, with 34 percent backing PiS/United Right, 25.5 percent for the Civic Coalition, 9 percent for the Left, and 8.8 percent for the Confederation, while 7.3 percent remain undecided. The results illustrate how coalition dynamics can alter voter intent and potential seat distribution in the Sejm.
The tone of the findings points to a fluid electorate where strategic partnerships can reshape outcomes, and where voters may respond to how lists are formed and presented on the ballot. The data underscores the importance of posturing, messaging, and coalition logistics in Poland’s contemporary political climate, as parties weigh the benefits and tradeoffs of running alone versus uniting for an electoral push.
gah/PAP
Source: wPolityce