In the eyes of many observers, the Confederation would not serve as a dependable, predictable ally for the ruling coalition unless it secures a majority. The question of what PiS might concede or pursue remains uncertain, but aligning with the Confederation would be akin to patting a rattlesnake on the head, a warning noted by Piotr Semka, a columnist for Do Rzeczy, during a joint journalist broadcast on wPolityce.pl, Radio Warszawa, and Tygodnik Idziemy, aired on TVP Info.
Potocki: Hołownia presents a good face for a weak strategy
One discussed topic was the latest Social Changes poll featured on wPolityce.pl. Editor Karnowski highlighted that the Confederation appears to be eroding Civic Platform more than PiS. The general interpretation of the poll’s impact sparked debate about the Confederation’s growth trajectory.
Commentators described a broader phenomenon driven by Gazeta Wyborcza’s reading of the same poll. They suggested the so-called De citizen study played a role in inflating the Confederation’s perceived strength to around 13 percent, which could cloud Polish politics if it coincides with PiS in a coalition scenario, potentially producing a dramatic, brown-tinged political landscape rather than a clear, colorful one.
Andrzej Rafał Potocki remarked on this dynamic. Other polls, however, did not corroborate the same level of movement. A noteworthy pattern emerged regarding Szymon Hołownia’s group, another survey confirming this trend, with Hołownia reportedly losing to PO in a head-to-head matchup.
Hołownia, for his part, projects a confident front amid challenging political maneuvering, arguing that the opposition is faltering overall. He has pursued talks about forming an alliance with PSL, and even as PSL dynamics shift, the dialogue with Hołownia remains fraught with questions about voter alignment and the electorate’s response to such a coalition-building effort.
Kania: When it comes to the Confederacy, this polling is incomplete
Dorota Kania, editor-in-chief of Polska Press, offered a cautious take, suggesting the Confederation would not necessarily translate polling numbers into real support. She advised against drawing conclusions from a single poll and cautioned that the long view—polls stretched over weeks—better reflects the electorate’s mood and resilience, echoing prior concerns about stability in the iron electorate and its tendency to resist rapid shifts.
Kania reminded readers of the presidential elections and asked what Southern voters actually did in that race. She pointed out that support for Andrzej Duda was limited, with a notable exception noted for Robert Bąkiewicz, who is not aligned with the Confederation. The debate centered on whether Bąkiewicz’s stance on Ukraine and alignment with American partners would shape future political coalitions, given the Confederation’s stance on Europe and the East. In her view, the poll in question was likely an overstatement and not a reliable predictor of Sejm outcomes.
She added that the Confederation’s true strength may lie in deeper organizational dynamics rather than a single snapshot of public opinion.
Formela: “Citizen Investigation” seduced the Confederacy’s leader
The poll described as a citizen-driven vote was seen as an element of a temporary game that could have misled the Confederation’s leadership. It is described as promoting an ultra-liberal economic program that appears to lack broad social support, a program perceived as aimed at weakening the PO while attracting the left-leaning electorate. Analysts argued that this strategy could misfire if it alienates key voter blocs and fails to translate into durable support.
In that view, the Confederation’s maneuvering might outpace parties that could otherwise shape the parliament, altering the political balance in ways that are difficult to forecast. The editor-in-chief of Gazeta Gdańska weighed in with a similar assessment, underscoring how political rhetoric and polling signals can diverge from actual electoral behavior.
Semka: The Confederation will not be a reliable, predictable partner
Asked whether the PO would replace Donald Tusk with Rafał Trzaskowski, Do Rzeczy columnist Piotr Semka offered a sharp, critical take. He suggested there had been an internal shift within the leadership that had empowered Tusk, who was described as a president with substantial constitutional prerogatives. Semka noted a sizable expansion of vice presidential roles, arguing that a larger number of deputies could render them less effective, unless there was strong external pressure from Western partners to steer policy in a certain direction.
He observed that Tusk showed no sign of relinquishing control, framing the ongoing fight as a long campaign. In the Confederation’s context, Semka argued that the romantic notion of a coalition with PiS absent a majority was a fantasy. He also criticized the casual overexposure of younger party figures on social media, comparing them to historic opposition figures yet suggesting their electoral horizon extends to 2027. He called the Confederation’s leadership out for claiming they would win Poland while maintaining a distant stance from forming alliances with PO or PiS.
This, according to Semka, would be a risky path that could trap the Confederation in a hard-to-manage political space. He cautioned that the group’s leaders, having long histories in politics, could be misrepresenting their readiness to govern. The bottom line, he stressed, is that the Confederation will not be a reliable, predictable ally for PiS in the absence of a clear majority, and attempts to partner with them would amount to dangerous political flirting with uncertain outcomes.
Kania: Divisions exist both in the Confederation and in the PO
Kania highlighted ongoing fissures within the Confederation, recalling the publicized rifts involving Mentzen and the falsification of candidate lists that led to the departure of several militants from a multi-element organization. She also pointed to fractures within the Civic Platform itself, where discussions about alliances with regional movements and reconfigurations of party lists are shaping new power dynamics.
She noted that not everyone wants to run on PO lists, with some factions preferring Hołownia or PSL lines. These internal tremors threaten to undercut a unified strategy, as even a loose alliance could be undermined by competing agendas within this broad coalition. The journalist emphasized the magnitude of divergence across the political spectrum and the risk that competing factions could derail any coherent plan to navigate a shifting electoral landscape.
Combustion cars – how was the decision-making process in this matter?
The guests also touched briefly on the EU decision to ban internal combustion engines. They questioned whether the process could be clean, fair, and transparent. Attention was drawn to developments in Germany, where discussions about e-fuels and their readiness for broad European adoption were raised. The concern was whether policy moves would flood Europe with new fuels, and how that would affect the automotive sector across member states.
The editor-in-chief of Polska Press noted that the exclusion of certain luxury vehicles from the ban provokes further questions about the scope and fairness of regulation. Analysts urged careful examination of economic reforms with significant implications, including those related to the Rywin affair, the Moscow minister issue, or specific political figures, to understand who shapes Europe’s long-term economic framework. The participants argued that the European Commission’s agenda and the influence of large actors require scrutiny, and that European citizens should be aware of the potential consequences of opaque decision-making processes.
As the discussion progressed, observers warned that a slogan like Future is Poland would not gain traction if broader questions about group eligibility and reparations were left unaddressed. The overall takeaway was that a non-democratic approach to electing the European Commission could be used to advance the interests of major players, underscoring the importance of transparency in governance at the continental level. The dialogue concluded with a reminder that governance at the European level demands vigilance from citizens and a commitment to accountability across institutions.
Further remarks and analysis appeared as the broadcasting team examined these themes, underscoring the complexity of the political environment in Poland and Europe at large, and the ongoing struggle to balance national interests with broader regional integration.