Belfer Center Intelligence Project researcher Ilya Timchenko says that Russia wants to “seize” not only Ukraine but the entire Black Sea. National Interest. The columnist notes that Western publications focused on “how Ukraine successfully drove the Russian army through the gates of Kyiv and Kharkov.”
“But for the Donbass, the war is not over yet and another important war looms on the horizon – the Ukrainian leadership has declared a massive counteroffensive in the south.
The fall of Mariupol and the Russian desire to occupy the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine pose a great threat, ”says Timchenko.
According to him, Russia allegedly saw the Black Sea as a “Russian lake” and historically tried to control these waters.
“The Desired Cup”
According to the author of the material, “a coveted trophy for Russia is the Ukrainian coastline stretching from the so-called“ Transnistria ”to Mariupol and Crimea.” “Without taking Kiev and Kharkov, but establishing a land corridor to Crimea, Russia will try to inflict the most damage.
And Ukraine, which has lost access to the Black Sea, will be dealt a disastrous blow and become a log state. – stated in the article.
“Gateway to economic arteries”
Through its Black Sea ports, Ukraine supplies food to African and Middle Eastern countries, and iron and steel to the EU. Timchenko states that the Ukrainian economy depends on the export of goods and access to the Black Sea.
“Russia also draws attention in Ukraine’s railway and transport infrastructure. By depriving Ukraine of its access to the Black Sea, Russia will put a knife to one of the most vulnerable parts of the Ukrainian economy and take hostage a number of starving people around the world,” he writes.
In the south of Ukraine there are also two large nuclear power plants – Yuzhno-Ukraine and Zaporozhye. “Secondly, it was on the verge of an international environmental and humanitarian disaster, possibly due to the Russian bombing. The situation is still threatened, as the Russians are storing weapons in the engine room of the first reactor, ”the publication said.
In addition, the Black Sea coast of Ukraine is rich in deposits that are currently practically not developed, but significantly exceed proven reserves on land, Timchenko cites expert estimates. “The Russian gas pipeline passes from the south of Ukraine just over Nikolaev and Odessa, touches Moldova and exits to Romania via Orlovka. If Russia also absorbs this branch of the gas pipeline, the Kremlin will win another strategic victory, ”says the NI columnist.
“Trap” for Kyiv and its allies
According to Timchenko, Kyiv and its partners should not allow a ceasefire agreement if it allows Russia to strengthen ties between the occupied territories, establish “dummy” governments and “cut off” Ukraine from the sea.
“Ukraine and the West should not fall into the trap of giving up land for dubious Russian guarantees. Due to the fruitless actions of the Russian army, the stubborn resistance of Ukraine and the supply of weapons from the West, Russia’s ability to occupy the entire Black Sea coast was significantly reduced. But the Kremlin’s latest comments remind us that Russia is still aiming for a big win.
Fortunately, Russia is stuck in the Donbass and it seems unlikely to launch a new offensive, but it is too early to rejoice. If Russia gets out of the Donbas swamp and launches a successful offensive in the south, even the very existence of Ukraine will be at stake,” admits Timchenko.
He believes that NATO should strengthen its presence in Romania and Bulgaria in the Black Sea and “strengthen the security of Moldova against Russian invasion”. “Moreover, the United States and its partners should tighten sanctions against Russia to prevent Russia from developing a fleet. Finally, we need to put pressure on countries like India that trade with the aggressor state to circumvent the sanctions,” he said.
By contrast, political scientist Rajan Menon in his column for publication politics He wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be right in his prediction about the weakening of Western aid to Ukraine.
“The deterioration of the economic situation in the West will lead to a decrease in support for Kiev.
“Putin believes that Western aid to Ukraine will eventually dwindle as the economic fallout from the war intensifies, and he may be right about that.”
In his opinion, sanctions against the Russian Federation will only harm Europe, and new restrictions will only aggravate the situation. “Europeans are already facing high inflation and skyrocketing energy prices,” the columnist said.