Czech concerns
Lukasz described the gas situation in Kovanda as “tenfold uncertainty”. He also fears that the failure of the Czechs’ Green Policy “will eventually pay off”. According to his data, electricity prices are breaking records, reaching almost 480 euros per megawatt hour. And in the pre-pandemic years of 2018 and 2019, the average cost was just 46 euros.
“German electricity, which will become ten times more expensive in the coming months and years, will also gradually increase the electricity bills of Czech homes. “The sharp rise in electricity prices in the Czech Republic will certainly not end with the approaching heating season,” said Trinity Bank chief economist.
He suggested that Berlin “live in an illusion” that “super-expensive electricity is only a matter of one, maximum two heating seasons”. At the same time, in his opinion, “many Czechs have not yet really felt the sharp rise in prices.” But Kovanda is confident the cost will rise over the next few years.
Experts fear that a gas shortage could force Germany to launch the “embarrassing” Nord Stream 2 in the fall or winter in a situation worsening with gas reserves in the country. He believes Berlin may decide to take this step because of the ongoing drought and the drop in the water level on the Rhine, which could hamper shipping and the supply of coal to German power plants.
“This greatly increases the likelihood that Germany will find itself in an even more difficult situation in the fall or winter, and it may have to go to power delivery or the notorious launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline,” said Kovanda.
According to him, the difficulties that Germany may face will benefit Russia.
“Greens and environmentalists, including German politicians, are trying to attribute the sharp rise in electricity prices to Vladimir Putin, or rather his special operation in Ukraine. In fact, it is primarily the result of the fatal failure of promoted energy policies known as the “energy transition”. It fatally aggravated Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, ”the analyst is sure.
“Harmful” rejection for Germany’s economy
On August 15, German journalist Nikolaus Blom stated in an article for Der Spiegel that the refusal to launch Nord Stream 2 hurt the German economy.
“Our goal is to stop buying Russian gas. If the rejection of Nord Stream 2 precipitated the complete cessation of imports of Russian raw materials. But this is not so, ”the journalist wrote.
According to him, Berlin is no closer to the goal of completely phasing out Russian gas if “a pipeline is shut down, but at the same time” the Germans “demand to send more fuel through another pipe”.
At the same time, Blom is confident that the launch of Nord Stream 2 will help reduce social tensions in the country.
On 27 June, the European Commission announced on its website that the European Union had approved new law mandating bloc countries to have underground gas storage facilities by 1 November this year. And in the following years, states will have to fill them 90%.
“According to the new legislation, 18 (out of 27) Member States with underground gas storage facilities will need to fill their storage facilities up to 80% by 1 November and are encouraged to target 85%. In the coming years, the target will be 90%.”
The European Commission announced that after the European Parliament, the energy ministers of the EU countries voted for the innovation. The new regulation entered into force on 28 June.
At the same time, Dutch Minister of Climate and Energy Rob Jetten warned that the gas crisis would “spread quickly” across Europe. In an interview with Politico, he said that if at least one country does not fill their coffers, the “domino effect” of the crisis will spread to all EU countries.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview with the Portuguese newspaper Diario de Noticias on 30 June that the 27 member states of the EU should “voluntarily save gas” to ensure “energy security” in winter. She also acknowledged the need for the “temporary” use of coal for power generation.
“The switch to coal should be a temporary solution if necessary. Renewable energy sources or less polluting options are preferred, but I always insist that European countries choose their own energy balance,” he said.
The 2,460-kilometer Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline runs through the bottom of the Baltic Sea. It was supposed to pump up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia to Germany. The pipeline was fully operational in September 2021, but on February 22, 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stopped the certification of the new pipeline.