Pelosi flew away, the residue remained
Nancy Pelosi managed to grab the attention of the world – for several hours hundreds of thousands of people watched the flight path of the C-40C, checking the news reports every minute in anticipation of a dramatic result. There was no sensation. Pelosi safely disembarked, greeted the crowd at Songshan Airport, declared her “unshakable” support for Taiwanese democracy, and set off for the Grand Hyatt Hotel.
Pelosi said, “Today, our proud delegation has come to Taiwan to state that we will not renounce our commitment to Taiwan and that we are proud of our friendship that has stood the test of time.” said. He met with Taiwan’s chief of staff, Tsai Ing-wen, and later presented the Speaker with the Auspicious Clouds Honorary Order.
Pelosi’s decision to visit the island, despite warnings from Beijing and Washington, sparked strong reactions even in the democratic camp. The New York Times scolded the US House speaker for recklessness, and his colleagues at the Washington Post predicted the dire consequences Taiwan would face because of the speaker’s visit.
Chinese officials meanwhile did not wait for Pelosi to leave Taipei and made it clear to Tsai Ing-wen’s administration that Taiwan would be responsible for the results of the American politician’s visit – just hours after the speaker’s arrival in Beijing. Simultaneous large-scale exercises in several waters around the island. Prior to the exercise, there was a mass movement of ground troops to the coastline in Fujian province, which is less than 300 km from Taiwan.
Following the start of the exercises, Beijing announced the imposition of economic sanctions against Taipei. The main measures include stopping the supply of natural sand, which is important for the manufacture of semiconductors, as well as suspending imports of citrus and two types of fish products.
At the same time, the rhetoric of official Chinese officials indirectly indicates their readiness to go beyond mere economic repression.
Ma Xiaoguang, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the People’s Republic of China State Council, said the “subversive actions” of Taiwanese authorities would hasten the collapse of the Taiwanese administration head and the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s administration. The ministry said Beijing would “not leave room” for pro-Taiwanese independence forces.
However, China will not launch a military operation anytime soon, as it has enough economic strength to complicate life for the Tsai Ing-wen administration and force the Taiwanese establishment to reconsider its priorities before the next presidential election in 2024. Andrey Vinogradov, Associate Professor from the HSE School of Oriental Studies and Head of the East and Southeast Asia Expert and Analytical Center of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, informed socialbites.ca about this.
“Beijing does not have to force the use of force to solve the problem today. He has at least one more year. Everything there will depend on the further development of the international situation. Including how prepared the United States is to continue its policy of aggravating relations with Beijing.”,
Vinogradov told socialbites.ca.
According to Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, at this stage Beijing may avoid a military operation against Taiwan by focusing on economic pressure. But the interlocutor of socialbites.ca is confident that in the future Beijing will be able to shift the vector of its decision to a strong one.
“Practice shows that Beijing will gradually impose sanctions – the process will take weeks, months. The military exercises will become increasingly aggressive against Taipei. All this will bring maximum inconvenience to the Taiwanese leadership. It will have negative effects on the economy, for example, due to disruption of transport communications. But “This is only the first stage of the development of the situation and the crisis,” he said.
“Then there can be both stability and more tension. Much will depend on the actions of the United States and Taiwan itself. At a certain stage the question of military operation will arise, but it will depend on the actions of all parties. There is no such solution for the time being. ”,
— Explained the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University School of Economics.
Status quo lost
As early as last week, when US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met for the first time since May, the head of the White House stated that Washington strongly opposes any unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability. Taiwan Strait.
However, the risk of escalating the situation in the region to the point of no return is realized precisely by the efforts of Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives. A number of Chinese media have already announced that the so-called “red line” in Sino-American relations has been crossed.
Andrei Vinogradov is unsure whether the parties will be able to return to the situation that had developed in the region prior to Nancy Pelosi’s visit.
“Relations between the PRC and the US seem to be taking a hostile turn at last. Beijing for quite some time – even at times [экс-президента США Дональда] Trump – at least hoped that he could maintain the appearance of normal relations with the United States and allow him to continue to benefit from the existing international division of labor around the world. Now, it looks like China will have to rethink its foreign policy strategy and foreign economic activity. By shifting the focus to more active cooperation with countries that do not support the US and NATO partners. The Russian Federation, the SCO and what they call their objective and closest allies – including more active cooperation with developing countries, ”explained Associate Professor at the HSE School of Oriental Studies.
Vasily Kashin expressed a similar view that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would have “irreversible and tragic consequences” for US-China relations.
“Pelosi’s visit marked a turning point in the development of the situation on the island. The Chinese constantly evolved into a military scenario. However, this event can push them to a final and irreversible decision, because
Beijing can draw disappointing conclusions about the degree of America’s determination to intervene in conflicts and intervene in any way possible. “The visit will have serious and tragic consequences,” he said.
Vasily Kashin is confident that the parties to the status quo established before Pelosi’s visit are unlikely to return, because Washington did not properly condemn Pelosi’s attempt to meet with Tsai Ing-wen.
“There is no going back to the status quo. While Washington emphasized Pelosi’s independence, the situation changed irrevocably as there was no overt condemnation. The Chinese proceed from the fact that the action was agreed with the White House. No matter how the Americans claim otherwise, Beijing will want to give a reasonable answer,” Kashin concluded.