Isolation or speculation
According to foreign media reports this week, Xi Jinping allegedly invited European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron, to visit Beijing later in the year. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese side wanted to schedule the visit of foreign leaders to either the 20th National Congress of the CCP or the G20 meeting.
European politicians have refused to visit the president, who is running for a third term, according to The South China Morning Post. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately denied the information about the invitation.
However, in the West, this alleged refusal has led to speculation about the possible isolation of Beijing, especially against the background of China’s accusations of aiding the Russian side in the conflict in Ukraine.
Andrey Vinogradov, Associate Professor at the HSE School of Oriental Studies and Head of the Center for Experts and Analytics for East and Southeast Asia (IFES RAS), is skeptical of such a message and sees no reason not to believe the Chinese side’s denials. According to him, if China is interested in such a meeting, the details could be decided during the G20 summit in Indonesia in the fall.
“Logic shows that in this case China is telling the truth – such things can be said orally at the autumn G20 meeting, but not now. The PRC-EU summit was held in April. The next is in 2023, ”Vinogradov said in a conversation with socialbites.ca.
Until recently, Beijing was able to find a common language with Europeans on many issues, including trade and investment relations. And although there were serious contradictions between the parties about the alleged oppression of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and the Uyghur population there, this did not hinder the development of business relations.
According to Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) at the National Research University School of Economics,
Europe’s economic dependence on China will not allow Brussels to isolate Beijing in foreign policy, but the cooling of Sino-European relations is indeed happening.
“First, it is still possible for leaders to visit each other. But there are serious problems with unity against China in Europe. It can be recalled that Polish President Andrzej Duda unexpectedly went to the opening of the Olympics, but the Americans did not force anyone to go there. Duda, the head of the conservative government, was dissatisfied with the attitude of the American Democrats and decided to show it to everyone. The Chinese know how to use the peculiarities of European politics to their advantage. Moreover, the Chinese themselves do not try to maintain a lively relationship at all costs. During COVID-19, they separated three officials from the entire senior leadership who carried out all contacts, and the leader himself did not communicate with anyone, ”explained Vasily Kashin.
It is noteworthy that in April European authorities expressed serious concerns about China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Then the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, promised to ensure that Beijing does not help Russia circumvent sanctions.
But the alarming tone of the European bureaucracy did not affect relations between the EU and China, which cannot be said about relations between Beijing and Washington.
The United States constantly threatens China with various restrictions if Beijing provides military or financial assistance to Russia to circumvent sanctions. Washington is confident that Beijing can financially support the Russian special operation in Ukraine.
China’s Foreign Ministry rejects such statements and calls for a peaceful solution in Eastern Europe. The day before, China’s Ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and the start of negotiations with the participation of all interested parties, including the United States and NATO allies.
However, even such statements do not help to reduce the degree of tension in relations between Beijing and Washington, as the countries still have not found a consensus on resolving the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan factor
The US is confident that China has not given up on the idea of forcibly annexing Taiwan to the mainland. This view was voiced tonight by CIA director William Burns.
At the same time, US attempts to accuse the PRC of preparing an attack on Taiwan seem inept and ignorant, former UN Deputy Secretary General, Soviet and Russian diplomat Sergei Ordzhonikidze told Gazeta.ru. According to him, the US will not try to isolate China on the foreign policy plane, but it can apply military pressure to Beijing.
“The US intends to accuse China of preparing an attack. They are doing their best to piss off China with their incompetent and ridiculous policies. This indicates an exaggerated assessment of his own abilities – economic, financial and military. They are not that strong and unified. The Americans will help the Japanese in every possible way, persuade them to change the constitution, which prohibits them from having full-fledged armed forces. Washington’s task is to create a belt of aggressors around China, armed with American weapons, similar to the Asian NATO counterpart. But this is a clumsy pressure. Not all states in Asia accept such participation,” he said.
Andrey Vinogradov of the National Research University Higher School of Economics also believes that the West is deliberately escalating the situation around Taiwan.
“Today it can no longer be ruled out that China will be forced to take some kind of ‘decisive’ step regarding Taiwan.
This will lead to an additional aggravation of the situation. It is difficult to say what steps these will be, they will look at the situation. In any case, by the end of this year (to be more precise, before the party congress in Beijing in November), China is extremely disadvantaged by the worsening of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. And also in the South China Sea. “Escalating the situation on the eve of the congress is more beneficial for China’s strategic enemies,” said an associate professor at the National Research University’s School of Economics.
impossible isolation
Under the current circumstances, China’s foreign policy isolation is unlikely, as Andrey Vinogradov is confident that such a decision will have large-scale consequences for the West.
“How do you imagine that? I’m not talking about the economy –
China is not only a leader in the world in terms of trade and economic relations, but also a manufacturing factory. The USA and the EU are the main buyers of Chinese products (but today they are already one of the main buyers – China’s trade with ASEAN countries has surpassed that with the USA and the EU).
The attempt to isolate Russia turned out to have extremely difficult consequences for Europe. And what if you try to tighten sanctions against China? It is clear that the economy today is subject to politics and political goals. But discounting completely would be at your own detriment, ”explained Vinogradov.
Sergei Ordzhonikidze expressed a similar view, noting that China’s diplomatic isolation will inevitably lead to a deterioration in economic relations, in which the EU is very interested.
“China is the world’s second economic center, and even with an incredibly strong will it will not be possible to isolate it. Foreign policy isolation is impossible because one is linked to the other. Politics always keeps up with the economy. If they continue to bother the big giant, economic ties will suffer from this,” Ordzhonikidze summarized.