Without the deals of the century
US President Joe Biden has wrapped up his Middle East tour that leaves more questions than answers.
But one thing is known: the Americans will not give up their position in the region. According to Biden, the US will never create “a vacuum in the region that China, Russia and Iran can fill”.
Experts agree that it is impossible to call Biden’s tour a “breakthrough”, despite a series of agreements.
Thus, in Israel, Biden signed the “Jerusalem Declaration” with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on expanding cooperation in the field of security between the two countries. It proclaims Israel’s principle of “qualitative military superiority” in the Middle East and affirms US plans to implement the Memorandum of Understanding of $38 billion in military aid.
During a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Biden said the United States would not stop trying to bring Israel and Palestine closer without saying how it would bring them together. Americans recognize the right of the Palestinian people to have a state of their own, but they also recognize that until now the principle of “two states for two peoples” has been impossible to achieve.
Another of Biden’s goals during the tour was to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. The media has been closely watching how negotiations will progress with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, whom Biden believes was responsible for the murder of senior opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the consulate in Istanbul in 2018. The Crown Prince had previously accepted his responsibility, but assured that the officials under his administration were unaware of certain actions.
But four years later, this story still divides sides – Biden assured that he remembered again that the prince was involved in the murder, and said he did not regret his campaign statement “to make Saudi Arabia a pariah country”.
Judging by the series of leaks in Al Arabia, the conversation really did not work – Al Saud, in response to reproaches, said that KSA officials had already investigated the Khashoggi case and put an end to it, and Washington should not impose values. in other countries. In addition, he recalled the torture inflicted by US soldiers in Iraq and the recent murder of an Arab journalist by an Israeli sniper, but this incident did not receive such a strong response from the United States.
In addition, the media wrote that Biden may try to persuade the Saudis to increase oil production significantly, so that it becomes cheaper. And if there was such an attempt, then it did not succeed – the crown prince openly allowed the production capacity to increase from a nominal capacity of 12 million (with real production) to a maximum of 13 million barrels per day by 2027. 10 million barrels/day). ./day), citing a lack of capacity. Traditionally, Riyadh will not violate the OPEC+ group countries’ agreement to reduce oil production.
Andrey Chuprygin, senior lecturer at the HSE School of Oriental Studies, said in a conversation with socialbites.ca that despite a number of signals from Riyadh, improving relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia has been beneficial for both sides. He’s trying to build relationships with Biden.
Biden got off to a pretty bad start with Saudi Arabia. This is because he took a very tough stance against bin Salmal during the election campaign due to the Khashoggi murder and human rights in general. This has not gone unnoticed in Saudi Arabia.
But now, at least for economic reasons, it is still necessary to build relationships. But even now we see a certain flick of the nose
– At least consider that Biden was not very well received, which a lot has been written about. And the joint statement of the USA and Saudi Arabia is about nothing globally, ”says the expert.
In particular, the analyst believes that the statement on “commitment to help the Ukrainian people” and respect for international law does not mean that the Saudis have taken a tougher stance on the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv.
“Now almost no meeting of heads of state can do without an expression of support for the Ukrainian people. At the same time, Russia was never mentioned there so that there would not be another unnecessary irritant between Washington and Riyadh taking a different stand,” says Chuprigin.
what’s next
American writer Malek Lipov, speaking to socialbites.ca, expressed the opinion that the failure of success in the USA in the Middle East is due to the fact that the figure of the leader of this country does not allow to talk about long-term plans. .
“Let’s say now the result is, for example, a series of agreements in which Saudi Arabia will assume the obligation to invest in 5G and 6G networks created by the US and possibly supply weapons to Riyadh, but all this is a special case. A visit cannot be called a failure, but neither is success, something by the way. It shows that Biden’s weakness already affects foreign policy in general, with many seeing him as a “lame duck”.
Sergey Demidenko, Associate Professor of Social Sciences at the RANEPA Institute of Social Sciences, also believes that Biden is trying, above all, to score tactically in the eyes of the audience, including achieving success in a foreign language. policy.
“Biden is trying to build on Trump’s success in the Middle East and will sort of run for president. Here he is trying to kill this card. But I doubt it will work: Biden has no alternative to the ‘deal of the century’, Israel’s plight It’s hard to do anything with Iran, including Iran.
As a result, he is just trying to do something in foreign policy for the sake of domestic influence. After all, he first tried to raise the grade on infrastructure projects, then on Russian-Ukrainian history, which, apparently, did not start. But it will certainly not succeed in the Middle East, ”says the expert.
The Iranian theme and the nuclear threat emanating from it sounded different these days. Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid even stated that a “last resort” – the use of military force – is not excluded if Tehran does not want to abandon the development of weapons of mass destruction. This caused a sarcastic response from the representative of the Iranian Armed Forces: Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi described such threats as “hallucinations”.
Experts agreed that Biden’s actions will have little impact on current trends in the region.
Thus, a conditional anti-Iran coalition, which could be formed, for example, by Israel and Saudi Arabia, which has no diplomatic relations, is unlikely to become legally official, which does not exclude the possibility of their being left behind. -scenes dialogue.
Both Arabs and Israel fear a possible hegemony in the Iranian region, which has nuclear status against the background of the dwindling American presence. By the way, even under Trump, the Jewish state was officially recognized by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
However, Sergei Demidenko ruled out the possibility of an imminent dissolution in relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia due to the religious factor.
“Israeli-Arab relations may indeed continue to improve, but most likely with Riyadh’s satellites, for example Kuwait and Oman, but not Saudi Arabia itself. Its foreign policy is religiously determined, and although they try to innovate under Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, these principles will remain the same. Simply because the only opposition in this country is the religious community, which doesn’t appreciate rapprochement with Israel. So Saudi Arabia will maneuver and negotiate, but not directly,” says the expert.
How to protect Iran from nuclear
The “Jerusalem Declaration”, signed by the United States and Israel, includes an obligation to “never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons” and to “combat its destabilizing activities” by Tehran. Experts agree that the Americans will sooner or later re-establish the nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) that Biden has repeatedly championed.
The JCPOA was concluded in 2015 between Tehran and six mediators: the US, France, UK, Germany, China and Russia. Its terms included Iran’s refusal to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. In 2018, the United States withdrew from the agreement at the initiative of former President Donald Trump.
Andrey Chuprygin says Biden was in favor of improving relations with Tehran at the beginning of his presidency. According to him, a number of signals indicate that he is not opposed to bringing relations with Iran and Riyadh to “working condition”. And it is precisely the de-escalation of tensions in the region that will allow Israel to “breathe”, and this is becoming “the central part of the new structure of the Middle East region” at the suggestion of the US.
“The decision on the Iran nuclear deal will be reached. I think Iran is looking at Biden’s policy right now, doing business, trying to get as much as possible. Russia will also have to consider its own interests in this context. But objectively, this agreement is beneficial for all parties, and therefore sooner or later it will return, ”Chuprygin is sure.
Malek Lipov also agreed with this view, adding that for now, the Biden administration trusts that Iran will want to go “to the world” due to the difficult situation it is in.
But we also understand that Biden is unlikely to engage in a direct military conflict with Iran. So I think efforts to restore the Iran nuclear deal will continue after the Ukraine crisis is over, once it is possible for US representatives to sit at the same negotiating table with Russia. “But I don’t expect that until the special operations in Ukraine ends,” he said.