“Erdogan pressed everybody”: what Turkey is trying to achieve with NATO enlargement

Finland and Sweden, which want to join NATO, have promised Ankara that they will not support the Kurds, which consists of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and supporters of Erdogan’s main rival, preacher Fethullah Gülen. , living in the United States. In addition, Finns and Swedes will have to block the activities of militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party and those inspired by its affiliated structures and groups.

Northern European countries will also evaluate the deportation or extradition requests of terrorist suspects in Turkey and will fight against “disinformation” against Ankara.

In addition, Sweden and Finland lifted the embargo on arms sales to Ankara and will support Turkey’s participation in the European Union’s Permanent Structured Security and Defense Cooperation (PESCO). In return, they approved their invitation to NATO.

The wording in the document was clearly arranged in such a way that Helsinki and Stockholm would not automatically agree with their views, taking into account Turkey’s interests. Of all listed organizations, only the PKK is recognized as a terrorist organization in all EU countries. However, Gülen’s supporters are referred to in the text as “an organization referred to as FETO in Turkey” (short for Fethullah Terrorist Organization).

The North Atlantic Alliance formally invited Sweden and Finland to join it. The membership of Sweden and Finland will now have to be ratified by the parliaments of the 30 NATO member states. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that the protocol regarding their entry should be signed on 5 July and after that the Scandinavian countries will be the fastest countries in history to join the alliance.

Warrior Bonus

After signing the document with Finland and Sweden at the NATO summit, perhaps the most important event took place for Erdogan – a meeting with US President Joe Biden.

According to the news that HaberTürk based on a source from the Turkish delegation, the American president said that he would be interested in the supply of fourth generation F-16 warplanes to Turkey after he returned to Washington during the talks.

We are talking about the approval of Ankara’s request for the supply of 40 aircraft and nearly 80 upgrade kits for the warplanes delivered last year. Also, the US president promised to work on a positive view on the deal in Congress.

Whether this is a response to Turkey’s benevolence in expanding the alliance is not known for certain.

And so far, there is no information about Ankara’s possible return to the program, where it expects to produce the latest fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, which the Americans excluded after purchasing the Russian S-400 air defense systems.

What do they think in Russia?

Russia’s parliament has been hesitant about Ankara’s decision to pave the way for Russia’s neighbors to join the North Atlantic Alliance.

Otari Arshba, coordinator of the parliamentary group responsible for relations with the Parliament of the Republic of Turkey, told Gazeta.ru that Turkey’s decision to approve the applications of Finland and Sweden will not worsen relations with Russia.

“We were friends, we will be friends and we will work. As our president said, this is Sweden and Finland’s business. We do not interfere in this matter and this does not threaten us,” he said.

During his meeting with socialbites.ca, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council International Relations Committee Vladimir Dzhabarov said that he was not at all surprised by the change in Ankara’s position.

“In any case, the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO is not of particular concern, so there is no disappointment with Erdogan’s decision. Finland and Sweden have long been integrated into the European Union and NATO. The main thing is that they do not plant nuclear weapons in their territory, but I think they understand everything very well. That’s why you need to take it calmly,” he said.

public relations hit

Erdogan described Turkey’s acceptance of Sweden and Finland’s terms for NATO membership as a diplomatic victory.

Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, Director of the Black Sea-Caspian Region Political and Social Research Institute, expressed the opinion that Erdogan’s tactics are effective in his meeting with socialbites.ca.

“Erdogan really pressed everyone and ensured that their demands were met. He won a major diplomatic victory. Another thing is that this will require a change in Finnish and certainly Swedish laws. And secondly, many people in parliament are Kurdish by nationality, which is important.

But in any case, this is a serious blow to the Kurdish movement. Europeans had to bow under Erdogan – I really want to join NATO,” he said.

However, not everyone is enthusiastic in Turkey. For example, Turkish journalist Abdurrahman Kamburoğlu, in his meeting with socialbites.ca, said that there are two points of view regarding the agreements reached in the country.

“The president’s supporters believe this is his success. It’s like he found his own way and got what he needed from the other side. The opposition claims that it is of no use to the country. And so far Turkey has received practically nothing. These are all promises of Finland and Sweden that they will extradite groups of people considered terrorists in Turkey. And in fact, there are no details on how it will all work. And will it ever happen? After all, Turkey, for example, has been unable to take some people from NATO countries for a long time, which it simply calls unfounded accusations. This is often discussed here,” he said.

At the same time, Kamburoğlu admits that Erdogan was successful, at least for himself.

“This is a game for the domestic public because there is a presidential election next year. And now Erdogan had to show once again that he plays an important role and that much depends on him.

But I think Turkey would somehow encourage these countries to join NATO, it just didn’t miss the chance to score points. This does not suit the opposition, which is not opposed to the joining of these countries to NATO. In other words, Erdogan’s public relations goals can of course be followed here,” he says.

everything is not so clear

RIAC expert Kirill Semyonov shares a similar perspective and believes it is too early to call Turkey’s agreements with Sweden and Finland a clear victory for Ankara.

It cannot be said that Erdogan has achieved all the goals he set at the beginning.

The real question here is what they are. Yes, all this is presented as a convincing victory for the domestic audience, the President of course fulfilled his duty in this regard. But if the aim is for Sweden and Finland to cease full cooperation with the various Kurdish organisations, big questions arise here. This memorandum does not give any guarantees to Turkey,” he said.

A closer look reveals that Erdogan’s diplomatic victory does not seem very convincing, indirectly through the official statements of the leaders. As a matter of fact, the Associated Press, citing a high-ranking representative of the US administration, claims that the US did not promise Turkey anything in return for changing its stance on Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto assured that Helsinki and Ankara were not negotiating the extradition of certain persons.

Perhaps Erdogan only discussed this issue with Sweden, where around 100,000 Kurds (1% of the population) live. He claims that Stockholm has guaranteed the deportation of 73 members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and has already expelled “three or four people”. At the same time, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that the country’s authorities would not extradite their citizens.

But in this case, Erdogan is always ready to support the game to prevent NATO enlargement. He states that Sweden and Turkey have only received invitations so far and it is impossible for them to join NATO without the approval of the Turkish parliament. Who may disapprove if something goes wrong (the majority in parliament belongs to the pro-presidential Justice and Development Party).

“No one should doubt that if we see attempts to delay the fulfillment of promises or hypocrisy, we will return to our original position,” he said.