The second round of the municipal elections is on Sunday. Poles will go to the polls again in no fewer than 748 places. This also applies to 9 major provincial cities. Can you expect surprises? “There may be surprises. The trend of change is visible in these local elections. Changes have already taken place in many cities and municipalities,” said Prof. Bartłomiej Bishop.
Candidates who will compete for the position of president include: in 9 provincial cities: Gorzów Wielkopolski, Kielce, Kraków, Olsztyn, Poznań, Rzeszów, Toruń, Wrocław and Zielona Góra. Residents of 60 so-called presidential towns, including: Bełchatów, Bielsko-Biała, Częstochowa, Elbląg or Gdynia. The Ipsos exit poll results are only available in three cities: Kraków, Wrocław and Rzeszów.
There may be surprises. The trend of change is visible in these local elections. Changes have already taken place in many cities and municipalities. The incumbent party usually has a better chance and wins statistically. Most municipal heads, mayors and presidents remain for another term. However, it seems to me that this will not be the case this year, there are many indications of that. Some of these people didn’t make it to the second round of the election, and some are surprised that they even have a second round. For example, Kraków, where we see from polls that there is a small difference between Gibała and Miszalski. Obviously this is influenced by big politics, whether these big formations put forward their candidates, who they will support or not. These results may not be obvious to candidates. There is also the issue of turnout, which is lower in the second round
– said political scientist Prof. Bartłomiej Bishop.
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The turnout will be lower
The question remains how voters with established political views will vote in cities where their parties no longer have candidates.
A large proportion of these voters will not vote. Because my candidate is not in the second round, I will not go to the second round. In turn, such mobilization can take place in cities where there is a large negative electorate for the incumbent mayor. When we talk about Poznań, the question arises whether these voters will vote against Jacek Jaśkowiak. However, here I would bet more on Wrocław, where many voters will vote against President Sutryk. We’ve already seen major symptoms of discontent here because he didn’t win in the first round. Poznań, in turn, is a more difficult area for PiS; it is a city in Greater Poland, which votes more for centrist, centre-left and left-wing parties. However, I would bet that the turnout in Poznań will be lower than in the first round
– said a scientist from the University of Warsaw.
The voting will take place on Sunday at 1 p.m. 7-21. In the second election round, the candidate who receives the largest number of valid votes wins.
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Source: wPolityce