Who will win the elections?

On July 4, 2021 (“The show begins”) I wrote here about the real threat. Arrival of Carlos Mazón as regional chairman of the PP It was aimed at the parties of the Valencian Community running the Generalitat. “The head of the Diputación de Alicante opens a new phase where the PP has set aside the complexes and is convinced that he can return to power in the Community,” one of the summaries of this text said. A year later, the popular celebrated yesterday (again, things never change in Valencia) that first anniversary of his accession to the throne, then turned into a tailwind with a breeze. PSOE and Comprois also did not react that day. (Unidas Podemos is only a stone guest on this land) and it is unclear whether they are now in a position to do so.

Recent polls by political parties put the right-wing bloc represented by PP and Vox ahead of the left in votes and seats in a way that did not exist a year ago. These are surveys, that is, photographs of a time and circumstances. In Andalusia, the most populous region of Spain and the most symbolic for the PSOE, they are held at the sweetest moment for the people, counting the votes that the government gives them by an absolute majority. And in the most difficult situation for the left since 2015, 25 years later the Generalitat has fundamentally saved its government (not only) because of the Compromís crisis.

For the first time in history, in the 2019 elections, which had to be called separately from the municipal elections and combined with the national elections to save the furniture for Podemos (which gave Botanic the re-recognition of victory), the split and the conflict for the entire legislature between the PSOE and Compromís) left, PP, Ciudadanos and It added 52 MPs, compared to the 47 Vox achieved.

But this result was misleading.

First of all, because vote difference between the two blocks It was just over 40,000 out of a census of 3.6 million.

Second, the PP, who previously dominated the entire spectrum of the right, had to do so now if it wasn’t bleeding enough this time, as it felt it had already suffered against the liberal center that Citizens claimed to have embodied since 2015. It competes with another brand strong on its far-right: Vox.

The same can be said of the PSOE on the other side. But not exactly like that. Socialists have always had to fight for votes with formations with great pedigrees to their left, such as the extinct UPV or the eternal Esquerra Unida. Entities that often did not get enough votes to enter the Valencian Parliament, but still removed seats from the final total of the left. But since PP swallowed the former Valencian Union more than two decades ago, it never suffered a loss until 2015 and at rates in 2019.

Third, the final result, Botànic II three signatories the two are no longer part of Consell, but also have a trompe l’oeil because candidates of the right took second, third, and fifth places on the ballots and in MPs. Those on the left ruled Place the PSOE in front of the PP. However, the Compromis were relegated to fourth power and United We Can fell behind Vox, the sixth group of a six-half bike. I mean, in 2019 Ximo Puig’s associates failed him and actually fell back seven seats despite a brand new alliance with the EU: two Compromís and five Podemos.

The polls currently circulating are reversing the scenario that occurred on election night 2019, and some (logically PP-oriented ones) are reaching. 52 seats estimated for the block on the right, against 47 for the left. How can this be reversed? Well, as you can see by looking at the previous figures, it doesn’t take a lot of votes to go from one side to the other for this to happen.

The point is, in one bloc, the PP on the right actually reclaims the 18 orphans left by Cs, who didn’t even get to 3% of the vote when they reached almost 18% in the previous election, while on the left, the fall of Compromis, angered by the incomprehensible Peronist proposed by the electoral coalition. , seems about to stay at home and abstain, PSOE can’t make up, which is growing again as before. 2019 but not enough.

Political scientists once in the Valencian Community d’hont’s law, the “premium” to become the party with the most votes requires three to five more seats. Well, that’s it: PP is growing based on regaining a good portion of what the Citizens lost in their day, being first party once again and reaping the rewards it entails. And what the popular ones don’t write is eating a Vox, whose growth has slowed but continues to gain seats anyway.

While currently on the side forming a government, the PSOE also rises, but does not recur as the dominant force and then goes down without transferring enough of its potential allies to tip the balance in their favour, just like in the past. 2015. If you compromise, it could lose up to seven of its 17 seats in these polls (very well in Valencia, but sinking in Alicante and Castellón, so much so that I would be in the place of former Minister Vicen Marzà. He does not accept any other position other than list chairperson in that province. and still not clear). And Podemos would lose at least one.

Politics is experiencing an acceleration dynamic that we have never seen before. A year ago, on the day that Mazón’s godfather, Casado, was declared leader of the PPCV, I dared to write that contrary to what was said in Valencia, the most powerful person in that photograph was not the party’s national president. day defended one case and another the opposite, but the person who pioneered the position, namely, Mazón who is clear on what he wants. This was another mockery to me. But twelve months later, with what’s left of Casado already history, Mazón celebrated his anniversary. So what the polls say today can dance tomorrow. But regardless, that’s already two issues, Ximo Puig and him. Both have strong and weak points. How you handle them will determine the final outcome.

In Puig’s case, you don’t have to be very smart to realize that he is the greatest asset. In fact, even the polls by the PP that gave the right bloc an absolute majority to lead still falter on two key questions. When interviewers ask respondents who they think will win the election, they answer the PSOE. When asked who they would choose as president, they give the answer to Puig. Yet. But either way, PP and Mazón, who were formerly far from PSOE and Puig, are now at their peak. There’s also the problem that Puig has everything that doesn’t depend on him: his partners are down, but he can’t seem to find a way to go after those voters without losing votes for center; Pedro Sánchez gives him more distress than joy; the war and the economy, the national and international situation, in short, he can do very little… everything is hurting him. The polls depict moments, but they also point to trends. And his own party, as I warned here earlier, is entrenched in fatalism: no one tries to explain the reasons why they can win, everyone insists on justifying the reasons for what they can lose.

In Mazón’s case, it’s the other way around: anything he doesn’t manage benefits him. It doesn’t matter what Vox does: if it gets bigger, it will ally with the far right seamlessly and if it includes it, as in Andalusia, and the polls show it could be here too, those who didn’t get votes for Abascal would not abstain, like those who fell behind on the Compromís road. , it will go directly to the PP basket. Feijóo is not only adding at the moment, he is giving wings to Mazón, his friend Casado is filling them with lead. The hardships of the recession that the war in Ukraine has dragged us through will not be paid for by it, but rather it can benefit from them. And its people, far from resignation, believe that Palau will become their property in a few months.

I said it for your property, I said fine. Because the only advantage Puig has left is, sense of proximity The biggest hurdle Mazón still faces is convincing the people, but above all the Valencian elite, that he is not a corrected and expanded version of Zaplana, and to an understanding of exercise. strength. It is difficult because the pressure that Mazón has begun to exert on key social actors is increasingly similar to that experienced in the mid-1990s with the rise of the new Aznar PP and its correspondent in the Valencian Community.

It is enough to see what happened to the Alicante Chamber of Commerce. The Mazón elections were held almost as if they were primaries for autonomous elections. Thus, suddenly, the presidency of an institution that is obscure even to those of us who always pay attention to it, has become a political target caliber enough to mobilize any popular mayor calling on businessmen of their districts. Be very clear who they will vote for. And they logically voted for what they were told: They would not meet Mazón They wouldn’t be brave enough to do something like this that they didn’t care about when the other side let them do it without hesitation. To leave the field before you even start a war. Baño came out with more than three thousand votes, but if that was what was needed he would have been elected with more than ten thousand votes. Because if Mazón showed one thing this year of his reign, it’s that he didn’t come, that he didn’t ask for forgiveness and permission (despite all that PP still owes us in that sense). Coming to win. While the Left, or at least a significant part of it, is busy making arguments for defeat.

Source: Informacion


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