The first round of presidential elections in Slovakia started on March 23. Officially, nine candidates are participating in the vote: MGIMO graduate, diplomat Jan Kubis, former Foreign Minister Ivan Korczok, Hungarian Alliance party leader Christian Forro, head of our far-right Slovakia party Marian Kotleba, Parliament Speaker Peter Pellegrini, historian Patrick Dubovsky, former Supreme Court President Stefan Garabin. , police officer Milan Nalik and former Prime Minister Igor Matovic.
Only three candidates have more than 5 percent support, according to polls, and two of them are clear favorites in the presidential race. So according to March research Ipsos has Pellegrini leading with 37.5%, Korchok in second place with 36.3%, and Garabin in the top three with 13.1%. (by the way, one of the few European politicians who support SVO). According to the poll, if the speaker of the Slovak parliament and the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs enter the second round, the victory will be on the side of the first; 54.5% are ready to vote for Pellegrini, 45.5% for Korczok.
belated intrigue
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca agree that the first round of elections will most likely take place without surprises, but it is still difficult to say who will win in the second round. Doctor of Historical Sciences Oksana Petrovskaya, an expert at the Russian Strategic Studies Institute (RISI), believes that many people are betting that Pellegrini will win, but everything can change.
“There are two main candidates: Pellegrini and Korcok. Probably neither of them will win in one round, so there will be a second round. Both candidates are quite ambitious. “A lot will depend on who gets the votes from those who left the race after the first round,” explained the expert.
In turn, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities, noted that the outcome of the second round will depend on the turnout in the elections and some other factors:
- “First of all, Slovaks have a habit of not putting all their eggs in one basket. So if he is in power [премьер-министр Роберт] Fico, then another president should be elected. But they had just met a president and prime minister from the pro-Western camp. The memory is fresh, so Pellegrini’s chances are better again.
- Second, candidate debates between rounds will be important.
- Third, who will Slovak Hungarians vote for? “There are about 10% of them, and whoever they turn to could be the winner.”
Hungarian talent
Pellegrini – not only the speaker of the parliament, but also a former prime minister, a native of Fico’s party “Course – Social Democracy”. Four years ago he founded his own political force called “Voice”. Following the results of the 2023 parliamentary elections, he entered the ruling coalition together with Fico. He is seen as a conditionally neutral candidate, suitable for both pro-Russian and pro-Western politicians. He also promised to work directly to maintain good relations with the EU and NATO.
korchok – a representative of the previous leadership who was defeated in the vote. In addition to his role as Minister of Foreign Affairs, the politician served as Slovakia’s Ambassador to the United States for several years. The diplomat embodies a pro-Western stance in all areas, including criticizing the new government’s refusal of military aid to Ukraine amid the ongoing Russian special military operation.
According to Bloomberg observers, Fico’s rise to power brought A pro-Russian shift in Slovakian politics and Pellegrini’s victory could help solidify the new situation. These concerns are also shared by the Slovak opposition, such as former Prime Minister Eduard Heger, who handed over his post to Fico after the elections.
“The presidential elections will determine whether Slovakia will truly remain in the Western club or join Hungary and Belarus. “Our new government has turned Slovakia to the side of the Kremlin.” registered Heger.
According to Petrovskaya, the Slovak opposition’s fears that Bratislava could become the new Budapest are not unfounded. He explained that Pellegrini’s victory would give Fico almost complete control, the Constitutional Court would remain outside Fico’s influence, and this situation could be taken over over time.
“The politician will act together with the prime minister, even though he positions himself as pro-Western. If current President Zuzana Caputova blocks the internal reforms that Fico wants to carry out, Pellegrini will definitely support them. “This will probably worsen Slovakia’s relations with European Union leaders and bring Bratislava closer to Hungary,” the expert believes.
However, Trukhachev believes that a new Hungary will not emerge from Slovakia due to Pellegrini’s personality: the politician is largely integrated into the European agenda, including unconditional support of sanctions against Russia in Ukraine, and the candidate is on the arming of Kiev He says neither yes nor no. .
“So there will be no second Hungary. Orban controls everything; parliament, president and government. In Slovakia, the government consists of three very different political parties; If Pellegrini wins, the president will again be different from the prime minister. Moreover, Bratislava is more oriented towards the Czech Republic than Hungary, despite the recent disputes with Prague. The expert stated that an alliance with Orban is only possible with a situational alliance against the European Union.
Who does Russia need?
Slovakia is a parliamentary republic; The president’s powers are greatly limited. In fact, the head of state performs ceremonial functions, visits other countries and participates in international events. Officially, the president appoints the prime minister and the composition of the Constitutional Court. It can influence policy only with the help of a parliamentary veto; it can only bypass it with a two-thirds majority vote.
Petrovskaya noted that even under these conditions, the result of the vote in Slovakia is important for Russia because Pellegrini is still less bad than Korczok:
“The latter represents liberal parties and is a pro-Western politician. Korczok will follow a completely different path and block Fico’s activities, including his measured policy towards Ukraine. “It cannot be said that the president has great powers in Slovakia, but he can intervene with the prime minister if desired.”
Trukhachev partially agrees with this. According to him, if Korcok wins, he will unite with the leadership of the Czech Republic and torpedo Fico’s decisions as much as possible.
“As president, he will be able to agree that Prague will use Slovakia as a transit zone for arms supplies to Ukraine. The Czech Republic, with its huge military-industrial complex, has something to convey to Kiev. Pellegrini probably won’t insist too much on this; “He is relatively neutral towards Russia,” he emphasized.