The EU expects a new wave of migration from Africa. What will happen to the Ukrainian refugees?

Europe faces a new migrant crisis

Reports by European institutions, cited by El País, predict that the world will face “high risks of instability and increased fragmentation of the international community” in the near future. It is said that the cause of the impending crises is world famine, which will be one of the consequences of the armed conflict in Ukraine.

As expected, the crisis will encompass most parts of the world, from Latin America and South Asia to Africa and the Middle East. But states close to Europe, such as Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya and others, may face the most serious consequences.

For Europe, rising electricity and food prices, and their possible scarcity, are fraught with a new migration crisis that will affect primarily the association’s southern countries, Spain and Italy.

Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Faculty of World Economy and International Relations at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in a meeting with socialbites.ca, described the migration crisis predicted by Brussels as “inevitable” and emphasized that it will no longer be like that. possible to completely neutralize the consequences of food shortages.

“Actually, the European Union will be faced with a new influx of refugees from Africa. Where they always run, they will traditionally run. These are developed European countries, especially Germany. This will be a challenge for the EU’s political elite, for the European economies. “A new crisis is coming in the European Union,” he said.

How big will the crisis be?

Unlike the European migration crisis in 2015, when refugees from the Middle East first flocked to the EU, North Africa will be the main source of current migration flows.

As Dmitry Suslov explains, this is primarily due to the fact that “Middle Eastern countries are in a more prosperous situation in terms of food security than African countries”.

The same factor allows us to make an assumption about the routes of future migration flows.

Moreover, the EU cannot be expected to close its borders to African citizens in order to prevent a crisis. “Nevertheless, for the EU as a whole and for countries like France or Italy, relations with Africa are very important. If they close the borders, they will lose Africa forever,” explained Dmitry Suslov.

However, it is extremely difficult to predict at this stage whether the impending crisis will exceed the scale that occurred in Europe seven years ago.

“Everything will depend on the extent of the famine the world expects and its consequences. If the impact of the crisis can be somewhat mitigated, the flow of refugees from African countries may be less than in the 2015 migration crisis. If not, maybe more, ”Suslov suggested.

At the same time, according to him, Russia can play its role in this story: “Moscow, of course, against this background will try to strengthen its relations with African countries, provide them with a large amount of food.”

“We must understand that Europe is provoking this crisis by playing with the United States.

The reason for this migration crisis is the sanctions that we do not apply. It is a fact that they have created a humanitarian disaster in the world. And the fact that they have to pay for it is also a fact. Who is guilty – will be punished,

Maria Butina, member of the State Duma Committee on International Relations, told socialbites.ca.

A similar point of view was expressed by Sergei Tsekov, a member of the Federation Council Committee on International Relations in a conversation with the broadcast: “Europe, of course, must welcome and equip immigrants. They have been plundering Africa for millennia and now they have to pay for it.”

What will happen to the Ukrainian refugees?

At the same time, Senator Tsekov believes that the first victims of the impending migration crisis will be Ukrainian refugees who have fled to Europe in the past three months.

The expert community agrees with this assessment. As Dmitry Suslov of the National Research University Higher School of Economics points out, negative trends regarding Ukrainian refugees in Europe will only increase as the migration crisis develops.

“They are already constantly worsening the conditions of their stay and reducing the benefits initially available to them,” the expert said.

According to him, this is due to the “narrowing of the objectives of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine.”

“There is no longer any question of conducting ground operations on the territory of Central and Western Ukraine; Not to mention Kyiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Lvov; and in general, most of Ukraine’s territory remains relatively safe.

Under these conditions, the Europeans begin to force the Ukrainians to retreat.

This is especially true for those who do not want to work in the European Union, who do not want to be cheap labor. Those who want to work will work. But for those who want to live on benefits, they are starting to make it very clear that the situation in Ukraine is not so bad that they stay in the EU.”

How will this affect Russia?

Maria Butina believes that it is not worth waiting for Ukrainian refugees from Europe to move to Russia.

“Ukrainian evacuees from the war zone initially have a choice: they can choose to evacuate to Russia, they can choose to evacuate to European countries. It is their right, they make their choice. If they chose Europe, it is probably better for them, and they are unlikely to change their minds in favor of Russia. Despite the fact that I think that the European attitude towards Ukrainians has already begun – frankly, they can be blamed for their misbehavior, too high demands, etc. Prejudicedly blame for it – they are unlikely to live there happily.

However, this is their decision. “You have to pay for your mistakes,” he said.

Sergey Tsekov noted that the increase in the number of Ukrainian refugees is not a problem for Moscow.

“We are already hosting Ukrainian refugees in Russia – we already have more than a million of them. And even if the flow increases, of course we will go further. Our people, brother. We won’t even think about it too much,” said the senator.

At the same time, neither experts nor politicians believe that Russia can become one of the destinations for refugees from Africa. This is due both to the country’s distance from the African continent and to the immigration standards of the Russian Federation.

Russia has established a migrant admission procedure and, unlike Europe, which creates a migration crisis with its populist slogans, it takes the protection of its borders and the security of our state very seriously. I am not afraid that immigrants will flow into Russia – everything is fine with the protection of the borders. Everything will be fine for us, but Europe really needs to think better,” Maria Butina summed up.