According to Politico, US President Joe Biden and his aides are increasingly frustrated by their failure to turn the tide against a series of issues that threaten to overwhelm the presidential administration. According to the publication, the country’s current leader is increasingly being compared to the 39th US President, Democrat Jimmy Carter, who failed to be reelected for a second term amid a wave of internal and external crises.
The parallel between the two heads of state is largely due to the fact that Carter faced rising oil prices and rising inflation during his presidency, and he faced external problems in the form of a revolution in Iran and the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan. .
As Politico points out, the main challenges for Biden are broadly similar – a serious jump in inflation, a rise in fuel prices with rising oil prices, and a Russian military special operation in Ukraine.
In addition, the problems for the current president have been the delay of the gun ownership bill, the risk of a Supreme Court review of the right to abortion, the crisis in the baby food supply, and the continuation of COVID-19. Pandemic.
From the point of view of the columnist for the publication, the most serious issues for Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole are the economic issues that concern voters more – despite the White House’s focus. Support for Kiev in the Ukrainian crisis and conflict with Russia.
Politico, describing the increase in gasoline prices and the increase in inflation as the most painful, pointing out that fears have increased in the Biden administration and the Democratic Party, pointing out that these problems are unlikely to be resolved before the midterm elections to Congress. The preservation of the Democrat majority in both houses is at stake.
What challenges threaten Biden?
According to experts interviewed by socialbites.ca, the main problem for the White House president and his team is the economy. That’s why Vladimir Vasiliev, principal investigator of the US and Canadian Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the situation under the Biden administration has really gotten worse lately.
“The possible recession is the most dire factor for the White House. There cannot be two views on problems in the economy. So this situation is either bad or good. According to recent polls, most Americans believe the economy is getting worse. And it’s almost a decision by the Biden administration from the voter standpoint,” he said.
American political scientist Malek Lipov partially agrees with this, emphasizing that there is a fuel crisis with record gasoline prices and the highest inflation in the last 40 years. “Against this background, it is possible that the United States is facing a serious crisis while the economy is really slowing down,” said the expert.
What will the White House do?
While Biden explains the increase in fuel prices with Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Moscow claims that the increase in gasoline prices is precisely due to the sanctions imposed by Washington on Russia.
According to American media, the Biden administration is trying to change the situation, including by putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase Riyadh’s oil production, which should lower the price. However, it has not yet been possible to reverse the situation with the rising prices in the USA.
As for inflation, the White House left the search for a solution at the mercy of the Federal Reserve Service (Fed), allowing for tighter monetary policy and rate hikes. In the US media, these measures are called negative for the economy as a whole, without excluding a recession in the near term.
According to political scientist Malek Lipov, it seems unlikely that the Biden administration will improve the economic situation before the midterm elections. According to him, in this case, we should just wait for it to deteriorate.
“The situation is likely to get worse because we saw the US economy decline in the first quarter, a slight increase is projected in the second, it will fall again in the third.
Moreover, given high inflation, the situation in the economy will become more and more unfavourable. Therefore, at this time, Democrats are actively using third-rate issues related to cultural or gun issues in the United States to somehow score points before the election. At the same time, they are unlikely to pedal matters of foreign policy, since the situation in Ukraine is developing unfavorably for the United States, and America’s attempts to blame Russia for all its problems no longer work, ”says the expert.
Vladimir Vasilyev of the USA and Canada Institute does not exclude that despite the Democratic Party’s attempts to hide the existence of problems in the media space, in the end, the White House will not be able to change the situation in the economy. .
“The most influential American economists agree that the country has two options – a soft landing or a hard landing. But in both cases, it is clear that the United States cannot avoid a recession in its economy. In such cases, the White House, which cannot solve the problems in the economy, can not solve the foreign policy crisis and the situation in the country. In other words, the Biden administration could bring the country to the brink of a world war or nuclear conflict with Russia.
If the White House goes this route, we could have a second edition of the Cuban Missile Crisis, with all its consequences, by October.”
Added the expert.
What can Democrats expect from the election?
Mid-term congress elections will be held in November 2022. Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole are approaching them with a serious drop in ratings in the face of the problems in the background. That is, according to polls by Rasmussen Reports, only 40% of Americans approve of the work of the president, 58% of those polled are disappointed with the leader of the country. Also, according to the survey, 40% of those polled are ready to vote Democrats in the upcoming elections, while 48% support the Republican Party.
As Vladimir Vasiliev of the USA and Canada Institute notes, the Congressional midterm elections are the literal first election for any new US president. According to him, it can be called a referendum for the Americans, which raises the question of whether they made the right choice.
“The current problems of the USA can be called the way the president does not fulfill his obligations. And if they don’t, Americans wonder if they’re choosing the right one.
Under these circumstances, it is not possible to exclude the election of opposition politicians from the Republican Party in the Congress midterm elections, which will be a vote of no confidence in the Biden administration. “If the Democrats lose a majority in both houses of Congress, that will put an end to the entire internal political agenda of the White House,” he said.
On the other hand, political scientist Malek Lipov states that before the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, the influence of the Democrats in Congress is expected to decrease somewhat after the elections. But, according to him, the current economic problems of the United States worsen the position of the party.
“Currently, the Democratic Party is threatened with the loss of more than 30 seats in the House of Representatives and 2-3 mandates in the Senate. So the Democrats risk losing their majority in both houses of Congress. Given that the moment with the economy is unlikely to be somewhat deployed, the Democratic Party elections will be very painful, ”says the expert.