“Hard times are coming for Europeans”

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The EU oil embargo will reduce Russia’s energy revenues by 60-80 billion Euros per year. This estimate was made by economists interviewed by the publication. Der Spiegel.

Who is most affected by the oil embargo?

The publication states that Russian oil will soon cease to flow to the European Union by sea. “After that sanction decisions experts and politicians calculate what will have a greater impact: a fall in Russian incomes or a rise in prices in Europe.

Could a boycott empty Putin’s military coffers? Or will it plunge the West into recession?

Market experts and economists predict that both will likely happen. In the long run, this decision could reduce the Kremlin’s energy revenue by €60-80 billion a year. But for now, Putin’s finances will continue to flow, as the embargo is full of exceptions and loopholes. A visible sign: the ruble strengthened slightly midweek,” the article says.

“There is still a long way to go”

Der Spiegel states that there are no signs of panic in the oil markets, and that the price of Brent oil has dropped after the sanction decision.

“After all the measures taken are implemented, the embargo may become a problem for Russia. But there is still a long way to go,” says Steffen Bukold, head of the Energy Comment analytics company. According to him, the new decisions will not have serious consequences neither for the Russian Federation nor for Europe, since both sides will have time to prepare for the embargo.

The EU also plans to make it harder for Russian oil exports across the oceans. “Most of the Russian oil is transported in European-owned tankers. And these tankers are usually insured by European or American companies. We have to use it,” said Fatih Birol, President of the International Energy Agency.

Steffen Bukold believes that tanker trade between Russia and EU importers will only collapse in the coming months. “Companies will not wait until the last moment, but will refocus and not renew expiring contracts. Russia will look for new customers, especially in Asia,” he said.

“Inflationary pressures will continue”

Guntram Wolf, head of the Brueghel Research Center in Brussels, warns that European businesses and consumers will suffer from high oil prices.

“Inflationary pressures will continue, resulting in a significant loss of purchasing power. This will force politicians to take action. As in the past few months, governments will likely try to cushion the price shock through fuel cuts, tax cuts and income support that could increase debt levels,” he predicts.

Wolf added that at the same time, the pressure on the European Central Bank has increased. “On the one hand, the regulator must raise interest rates to contain inflation. On the other hand, it should ensure that risk premiums are not too high for heavily indebted countries such as Italy or Greece. “The central bank is facing a difficult balancing act,” he said. According to him, difficult times are coming for Europeans.

“It is not yet clear who will emerge victorious from the Euro-Russian economic war.

Russia has to deal with the long-term failure of traditional energy markets in Europe. The EU needs a concept to overcome the economic and social consequences of the embargo,” writes Der Spiegel.

“The USA already got what it wanted”

In response, Bundestag MP Petr Bystron pointed to a change in Washington’s stance on the situation in Ukraine. According to him, this is evidenced by the statements of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and publications in the American press.

Kissinger had previously urged the West to influence Kiev to continue negotiations with Moscow. Bystron said his statements directly contradict the views of Western European politicians who oppose a peaceful resolution of the situation.

“However, Kissinger transferred the change in the narrative of the conflict only to European soil,” the German parliamentarian wrote in a column. iDNES.cz.

According to him, the change of attitude towards Ukraine in the United States began with an article. New York TimesEmphasizing that an armed conflict with Russia is not in the interests of the states. At the same time, the publication in March wrote that, according to Bystron, “Ukraine must be liberated no matter how long it lasts”.

“Of course, neither Henry Kissinger nor the New York Times editorial columnists suddenly became fans of Vladimir Putin.

Their 180-degree turn means that the US has already gotten what it wants and is therefore not interested in continuing the conflict,” he said.

Bystron added that over the past 30 years, Americans have “already maximized their sphere of influence by moving the border from the center of Europe to the shores of the Dnieper.”

“The fact that one day the scythe will find a stone was inevitably understood by everyone, at least from the moment Putin openly opposed NATO’s eastward expansion in his speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007,” he said.

According to the Bundestag MP, Washington can no longer intervene in the situation in Ukraine, as its territory is “in the sphere of influence of another world power.”

“Russia is isolated from the West, and the West is isolated from the world”

Against this background, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that the crisis in Ukraine shows that the West is isolated from the world. Unlike the United States and its allies, most states refused to condemn it. Russian special operationsclaims.

“The crisis in Ukraine has revealed a very painful truth. The response from the West was unanimous, but what do we mean by the West?

Some countries such as Australia and Japan that have traditional ties with the USA in the USA, Europe and the Pacific region. And from other countries of the world? Almost nothing,” Berlusconi wrote in an article Giornale.

He drew particular attention to Turkey, which, despite its important role in NATO, refused to impose sanctions against Russia. “What the Ukrainian crisis has shown us is an alarming sign for today and especially for the future. Russia is isolated from the West, but the West is isolated from the rest of the world,” the former Prime Minister of Italy concluded.

Recall that on March 2, during a special session of the UN General Assembly, it adopted a resolution. Condemned the special military operation of the Russian Federation in UkraineIt started on February 24.

Representatives of 141 countries voted in favor, while 35 abstained.

Only five countries voted against this document – Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Russia and Syria.

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