The political landscape before the elections. Head of the Social Changes studio in “Salon Dziennikarski”: PiS and PO voters are determined

The voters of Law and Justice and the Civic Platform are decisive: there is no movement among the voters. The most interesting question is about the Third Way, said Marek Grabowski, head of the Social Changes studio, in “Salon Dziennikarski”, referring to the latest survey on support for political parties.

Jacek Karnowski’s guests – Jolanta Hajdasz, director of the SDP Press Freedom Monitoring Center, Andrzej Rafał Potocki from the weekly magazine “Sieci”, Marek Formela from “Gazeta Gdańska” and Marek grabowski from the Social Changes studio – were asked about the latest research commissioned by the wPolityce.pl portal of the Social Changes studio. The research shows that if the elections were to take place next Sunday, the United Right would win.

Currently, 39 percent want to vote for the United Right. subjects; for KO – 30 percent, for Confederation – 10 percent, for Left – 9 percent, and for Third Way – 8 percent. Below the threshold would be nonpartisan local governments with 2 percent support. The indicated turnout is 71%. (without changes). 23 percent respondents do not intend to participate in the elections, and 6 percent have no opinion.

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Question about the Third Way

Marek Grabowski, head of the Social Chalegs studio, pointed out in “Salon Dziennikarski” that “the research is closest to reality.”

We have been using this methodology for years. During the presidential elections we had the highest accuracy of results, confirmed by the Jagiellonian University. We have strong arguments. In some studies the jumps are very sudden, for example by 4%. in the case of the Third Way, and this is practically half the electorate. We perform tests weekly. Such jumps do not exist. We examine how determined the electorate is to vote. The voters of Law and Justice and the Civic Platform are decisive: there is no movement among the voters

– emphasized Marek Grabowski.

The sociologist pointed out that things are starting to get interesting in the case of the Confederation, whose results are around 10 percent, and in the case of the Third Way.

I understand 7-8 percent. Third Way voters on the fence. It’s not like they’re just a reservoir for PO. Some people there absolutely don’t like Tusk and have a positive attitude towards PiS

– said Grabowski.

Marek Formela, editor-in-chief of “Gazeta Gdańska,” added that in the case of the Third Way, “PSL is the base, and Hołownia’s movement is an improvised political entity dependent on the energy of PO and Tusk.”

The real political landscape

When Andrzej Rafał Potocki was asked about the political landscape in Poland, he pointed out that it is difficult to assess the situation because “the polls, as the young people say, are crazy.”

A columnist for the weekly magazine “Sieci” recalled what happened after the June 4 march, when research commissioned by media favorable to the opposition showed spikes even before the march.

Taking into account the average, the results from the Social Changes studio, which I have confidence in, tend to indicate that if the Third Way is eliminated, PiS will have an independent majority. If the Third Way is introduced and the difference between PiS and PO is large, the Left and the Third Way could result in a minority government.

– said Potocki.

Gierki Owsiak

Jolanta Hajdasz added that Law and Justice is the winner of this election, regardless of the outcome, because they won thanks to the way and style of campaigning.

All PiS voters, conservatives, can be proud of the way the campaign was conducted, what issues were discussed and how they responded to the opposition’s insults.

– emphasized the director of CMWP.

When asked about the Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity’s posters about the alleged fight against sepsis and the actions of Jerzy Owsiak, who took part in the opposition march on October 1, Hajdasz said that “it’s a shame.”

Owsiak portrayed himself as a secular saint from liberal circles, he had to show that you can act selflessly, show who he is in favor of, who he serves

– said Jolanta Hajdasz.

The face of the Civic Platform

Marek Formela pointed out that “the highlight of the PO capabilities was the march, where it turned out that thanks to the calculations of Prof. Kisielewicz there were about 300,000. people”.

I would also like to evaluate the polls: the PiS result is between 38 and 39 percent. seems certain. It is a consistent, substantive conversation with Poland. This is not a conversation about emotions. It is a conversation about the interests of different social groups, confirmed by the results of the changes in power. Stable employment, rules of the game – there are problems, Morawiecki talked about it, but it is impossible to rule flawlessly for 8 years. PO responds with aggression and vulgarity – these are the bowels of PO. This sight is worth seeing

– points out the editor-in-chief of “Gazeta Gdańska”.

Formela opined that Tusk’s march “took good advantage of the tsarist style – this speech about the social and social aspects of the left could be poisonous for PO, it will take away part of the electorate and restore confidence that the left can take social responsibility to have.”

Formela also added that “it is impossible to vote for the Third Way in good conscience because this is the path of two leaders going in different directions.”

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