What does Erdogan want?
On the day that official negotiations between NATO and Finland and Sweden on alliance membership began, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again stated that Ankara does not support the Scandinavian states’ aspirations to join the alliance.
We will say no to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. “Sweden is a real terror nest,” he said.
The refusal of these states to extradite the representatives of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the Turkish side considers terrorists and persecuted since 1984, and the supporters of the terrorist organization FETO, to Turkey stems from such a discourse. Fethullah Gülen, a former preacher accused by Ankara of the 2016 coup attempt and also recognized as a terrorist in Turkey.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg, Ankara is not limited to demanding that Sweden and Finland publicly condemn the PKK, but also intends to resolve its other conflicts within NATO.
Thus, to support the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, Turkey hopes to return to the program for the procurement of the latest F-35 fighters and lift US sanctions for the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense. systems. Ankara also has a pending request from the US to purchase dozens of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade kits for its already existing fleet.
Can Turkey set conditions for NATO?
According to Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Faculty of World Economy and International Relations at the Higher School of Economics, “Turkey has every opportunity to determine the conditions for the admission of new members to NATO.”
Because Turkey has the second largest army in NATO after the USA. It controls a NATO outpost and strategically important straits in Southeast Europe and the Mediterranean, ”the expert said in a conversation with Gazeta.ru. ru”.
He also reminded that the numerous conflicts between the USA and Turkey, France and Turkey, Greece and Turkey in recent years had no effect on Ankara’s participation in the activities of the North Atlantic Alliance.
“Despite all these very serious conflicts, the issue of Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO did not come to the fore. Why? Because both sides understand that neither the United States nor NATO as a whole can afford to lose Turkey, nor that Turkey is interested in withdrawing from NATO – that’s its position, the status of relatively non-Western players – the same Russia and Russia. the same will sharply weaken the status of Russia. Middle Eastern countries, “- said Dmitry Suslov.
Turkologist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, noted that if this situation creates difficulties for someone, it is certainly not for Ankara.
Making such serious demands, Turkey risks nothing. For Turks, all of this is the tenth thing. They can wait for their satisfaction – where to rush. But those who want to join the alliance, apparently, have a lot to hurry, ”he told socialbites.ca.
How will the dispute be resolved?
“Everything will depend on the position of those who want to join NATO: whether they will meet Turkey’s demands. Of course, it should be borne in mind that their desire to join NATO is extremely serious, but if they are, they will apparently have the desire to solve the problem, ”said Nadein-Raevsky.
Dmitry Suslov agrees with this view. “Turkey positions itself not only as a NATO country, but also as a regional powerhouse that pursues an independent, sovereign policy and defends its national interests. Erdogan will not take a step back in this situation,” he said.
Experts believe that the only way out of this conflict is a compromise, but achieving this will not be easy.
“Of course, it will be very difficult to come to an agreement because the solution to this conflict is actually full of humiliation of Sweden or Turkey, which supports the Kurds much more.
It is clear that in order to get Sweden and Finland into NATO, these countries would have to accept a serious foreign policy contempt. But they will have to,” Dmitry Suslov predicts.
Therefore, the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO risks being delayed, but the scenario in which the Scandinavian countries never joined the alliance is considered unrealistic by the expert. “The US has already been significantly engaged here. And it is unacceptable for them to remove this issue from the agenda,” he said.
“Most likely, reconciliation will come to change Stockholm and Helsinki’s policy towards the Kurds. However, we should not wait for the S-400, F-35 and other problems of Turkey-NATO relations to be resolved. These are general Turkish requests, but not strict requirements specifically linked to this issue,” he said.
Source: Gazeta
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