The entire zone that we built on the border with Belarus was ahead of the whole cycle of hybrid activities of the Russian Federation with the help of Belarus, aimed at destabilizing the situation on the border, by weeks or even months, says Prof. Potr Grochmalski, an expert on international security. He clearly sees a Russian trace in the riots in France.
wPolityce.pl: Is the Wagner Group moving to Belarus a real threat to Poland?
prof. Grochmalski pot: Absolutely yes. And it is good, which is clear that Polish policy is trying to recognize these threats and react in advance.
We live in a world of information warfare and disinformation. From the information that appears Russian military portals and blogs show that, in addition to organizing a training ground or a center for the Wagner Group in Osipowicze, the construction of a Training Center and the activities of the Group in the triangle between Brest, Baronowicze and Grodno are considered.
The situation is very dynamic. We do not know the content of the agreements between Putin and Lukashenko’s teams, what plans they have in the wake of the Wagner Group’s move and activities in Belarus.
These are formations that – especially after Bachmut – have been adapted, among other things, to the effective use of drones, including kamikaze drones. These are formations that can bombard the border area in various ways, but can also train others in sabotage activities. After all, they carried out a project to train Belarusians in 2021. Therefore, the relations of the Wagner Group with the army of Belarus were built earlier.
The scenario of actions is quite understandable. It is about the “gray zone”, when Putin, who officially admitted to financing the Wagner group, confirmed that it was a formation of the Russian state, despite the fact that it was illegal and in violation of internal regulations. On the other hand, deploying a formation such as the Wagner group for various types of activities, which may even be of a quasi-kinetic nature, will make it difficult or difficult for NATO countries, including Poland, to respond in accordance with art . . 5 of the North Atlantic Pact.
This is one of the very dangerous elements of the current situation, when it is possible to introduce destabilizing solutions that are difficult to recognize and define as aggression in terms of art. 5. Action is therefore needed here, including counterintelligence activities
In addition to drones that can fly into Polish airspace, can we expect encroachments on Polish territory or other actions? It is known that the actions of a trained and equipped military group of mercenaries are different from attacks on our border by ordinary migrants.
I have already mentioned kamikaze drones. So it doesn’t necessarily have to be a direct attack. The Wagner Group are platoon-sized formations that perform extreme operations, with very high dynamics of situation changes, using advanced technology. This allows to minimize losses, especially of heavy equipment, and to approach the fortifications as closely as possible, in this case the fortifications of the Polish-Belarusian border, and for example throw grenades or even hand-to-hand combat. And it must be said that the Wagnerians are the best trained Russian formations in this regard, operating according to non-standard procedures. These are attack formations prepared not to defend, but to attack, to harass, to look for solutions with high dynamics of operations. It is not surprising that after the Wagnerians crossed the Belarusian border, the Ukrainians also reinforced more than 1,000 km of the border from the Belarusian side.
Is Poland responding adequately to the new threat on the border with Belarus?
Therefore, the procedures introduced by Poland are completely rational. They also have a somewhat daunting dimension. The entire zone that we built on the border with Belarus was ahead of the whole cycle of hybrid operations of the Russian Federation with the help of Belarus, aimed at destabilizing the situation on the border, by weeks or even months. This has already prevented some scenarios from Russia and Belarus from being implemented.
We sent reinforcements in the form of a special formation to respond quickly. And at the moment, these are activities between the formations that specialize in countering the deep destabilization of states, and the formations that are supposed to identify and eliminate threats.
500 new police officers from the prevention and counter-terrorism units, who will join 5,000 border guards and 2,000 soldiers – is that enough?
This is definitely a very strong signal. If action is taken from that side, I am convinced that a very important element will be the speed and effectiveness of the deployment of these formations. However, what has been built and the experience Poland has already gained is unique in Europe and on the scale of the European Union. We are the best prepared state when it comes to the resilience of the external borders. Firstly, the experience, and secondly, the cooperation with Ukrainians and Lithuania, has resulted in us building a system of understanding what is happening in the border area of the European Union and dealing with difficult situations related to it. Through reconnaissance systems, we are able to see potential regroupings and potential threats associated with them.
The above forces are on the one hand a strong impulse for society and on the other hand they are complementary to those points of our border defense that may need to be supplemented. So at this stage, these new powers will certainly be enough. This is one step ahead of events – weeks or even months. It does not follow directly from the already real threat. It is the effect of imagination, foresight and security.
I would like to emphasize that we have acquired the competence of cooperation between different formations in this border area, for example cooperation between special forces and territorial defense forces committed to the border area. This is all very important.
Should the current events of the riots in France and Belgium be read only as hooligan debaucheries of non-assimilated youth from a migrant background, or are these – in your opinion – actions inspired from outside?
This must be linked to France’s base towards the NATO summit in Vilnius and Macron’s attitude, which started to move towards the Three Seas countries. That is why I see these riots as a sure instrument of Russian influence. Russia has built such instruments. Putin is and will continue to destabilize Europe with this wave of migration. Such signals have been coming for a long time, but are underestimated. If I were to map all the subversive or subversive-terrorist actions that the Russians have carried out in Europe, we would see that only a few countries have not been hit by the Russians so far. We have examples from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. The indications of a link between the activity in France and the forthcoming NATO summit are legitimate.
The Russians built up such means of influence, including through mafia influence, restricting certain circles. In addition, there are of course mistakes in the internal politics of individual countries. For example, I read a famous Senate report, terrifying to the French, which assessed how much the Muslim communities of France have built absolutely autonomous areas where everything, the entire living space from birth to death, is created by local Muslim communes. It was truly a terrifying signal. It turned out that the number of such organizations is worrying. Then came all kinds of suggestions for solutions, but it’s a bit too late. There is no dearth of voices from the circles of the French services that the milk has already spilled, that the scale of the threats is already huge, so – as we see it now in France – one spark is really enough to even the whole country to destabilize.
It’s not that the Russians just use those swollen tendencies to inflate them. In my opinion, this Russian trace is absolutely visible here.
The interviewer was Radoslaw Molenda
Source: wPolityce