“Alyaksandr Lukashenko declared himself the main author of the agreement that halted the advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebels on Moscow. How it really happened, no one knows, but this version has been recognized as valid, and Lukashenko will definitely use this success, experts say.
Lukashenko will bill the Kremlin
Alyaksandr Lukashenka officially acted as the one who helped Vladimir Putin, at least temporarily, to get out of a critical and potentially very risky situation. There is no doubt that he will charge the Kremlin for this help
Anna Maria Dyner, a Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) analyst specializing in Belarusian issues, said in an interview with PAP.
On Saturday evening, when the leading troops of Wagner’s rebels were due to be within two hours of Moscow, Lukashenko’s press office unilaterally announced that he had negotiated an agreement (in consultation with Vladimir Putin) and that Prigozhin and his men had agreed to an escalation.” Shortly afterwards, the head of the Wagner Group himself announced that he would return his troops to “prevent bloodshed.” Later, a Kremlin spokesman announced that charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that he and his militants “go to White Russia would move”.
More question marks than answers
There are more question marks than answers in the whole matter, but while no one confirmed Lukashenko’s version, no one denied it either, so it became valid. It can therefore be cautiously stated that Lukashenko has actually managed to gain an image advantage from this crisis
Dyner said.
Belarusian independent analysts admit that Lukashenko took advantage of this situation in terms of his image. However, they point out that the Belarusian leader, an ally of Putin, could simply be used to get out of the crisis.
What variants did Putin have? Killing Prigozhin may be too cruel. Giving in to him is difficult for the Kremlin. So you can push it to Belarus
– said analyst Alaksandr Kłaskouski on Radio Swaboda.
ISW: Lukashenko’s cards have become stronger
According to experts at the American Institute for War Studies (ISW), Lukashenko’s cards have become stronger. He helped Putin in a difficult situation, which he can now use, for example, to postpone the formalization of the Union state of Belarus and Russia, under pressure from Moscow, and to counter any plans to involve Belarusian troops in Ukraine. to go, which is not in his favor for political reasons.
However, this does not alter the fact that Belarus’s heavy dependence on Russia greatly limits Lukashenko’s room for political maneuver.
Dyner said.
What about the Wagner group?
It is not clear what Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s announcement means that the Wagnerians will “go over to Belarus”. This mercenary formation has become a source of serious problems for the Russian authorities and poses a real challenge to internal security.
The Wagner Group as we know it is unlikely to move to Belarus. Such groups are not only illegal, but can also pose a threat to the Belarusian regime. In addition, this would potentially mean a reduction or loss of income for that part of the Russian elite that has benefited so far
noted Dyner.
Despite the temporary resolution of the crisis, recent events in Russia bode badly for both the Kremlin and Lukashenko in the long run
concluded the analyst.
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rm/PAP
Source: wPolityce