Kyiv is ready to block Moldova and Georgia’s path to the EU. What causes the trio to break up?

In May 2021, Kyiv, Chisinau and Tbilisi signed a joint memorandum of understanding, which resulted in a new cooperation format, the Associated Trio. The format assumed that the three countries would carry out reforms together to approach EU standards.

EU leaders endorsed the three countries’ initiative in December, “noting” increased coordination between them on common issues.

Until recently, the “tripartite” made joint statements and strongly emphasized the importance of the “Eastern Partnership” in the context of European integration in the post-Soviet space.

However, with the start of Russia’s special operation on Ukrainian territory, the countries found themselves hostage to some contradictions. The fact is that the participation of Georgia and Moldova in the pressure of sanctions on Russia is very limited and on this basis does not suit the Kyiv authorities.

It is noteworthy that the statements of the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Olga Stefanishina followed the day after the Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili delivered the second part of the Brussels survey to the EU Ambassador to Georgia Karl Hartsel. The procedure significantly brought the Transcaucasian republic closer to the formalization of their status in the EU.

“The position of Georgia and Moldova to participate in EU sanctions, to participate in EU security and defense policy in general, should be evaluated objectively in terms of the readiness of these countries for membership today,” Stefanishina said. Ukrainian edition of Zerkalo Nedeli.

The politician paid special attention to the adherence to certain “values” that helped Ukrainians build the European political system. As for the “other countries”, Stefanishina was no longer so sure.

“I have such a feeling about Ukraine. As for other countries, I’d like to look at the European Commission’s assessment and I think a few political cycles will have to wait.”

– said.

rods on wheels

This is not the first time that Kyiv authorities have made claims on countries linked to Ukraine through partnerships. The scandal over the insulting of the German chancellor by the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany has yet to subside, as Ukrainian politicians again made loud statements (he called it the “irritable liver sausage”).

According to political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev, Kyiv authorities now move freely in the public sphere and can meet literally anything, including calls to keep Georgia and Moldova out of the European Union.

“Look at how the Ukrainian authorities treated Germany, the largest country in Europe. How rude are they to Hungarians and Slovaks who refuse to support the oil embargo? – Suzdaltsev shared his idea with socialbites.ca.

The political scientist is sure that Ukraine can try to put pressure on Brussels, because Kyiv sees itself in the public sphere as the “master of Europe”.

“Georgia and Moldova fled the sanctions against Russia and immediately turned into enemies of Ukraine. What is obvious here is what Americans may not want to say publicly, he speaks for them. [глава украинского МИД Дмитрий] Kuleba,” says the political scientist.

Suzdaltsev expressed his confidence that the European Union still wants to see both Georgia and Moldova in its ranks. But he said the European integration process could stall due to the lack of common solidarity over anti-Russian sanctions.

In his meeting with socialbites.ca, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, pointed out that no decision has been taken yet on joining the EU. Therefore, the statements of the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine are premature.

In addition, the question of membership to the European Union is now in question for the three countries of the “associated troika”.

“There will be no political decisions about the accession of the three countries to the EU in the near future. As a compromise solution, Brussels could develop a new intermediate formula – more than associate membership, but not full membership to the bloc,” he said.

“Georgia and Moldova understand that they are limited in anti-Russian actions, because no one wants to be in Ukraine’s shoes,” he said.

Kyiv will not be able to persuade Brussels to abandon integration with Georgia and Moldova, according to Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation.

“It’s all jealousy and resentment – nothing more. In principle, we’ve seen resentment about these before. [президента Франции Эммануэля] Regarding Macron and the German authorities. The apparent Euro-Atlantic solidarity around Ukraine is artificially glued together. Ukrainian Ambassador calls German Chancellor liver sausage – is this solidarity? Asks Bondarenko.

The expert believes that Ukraine is not satisfied with the position of Georgia and Moldova, which do not want to risk their own economic interests by imposing sanctions on Russia.

“Governments have been formed in Georgia and Moldova purely for national interests. They do not sympathize with Russia, but they do not impose sanctions, since their economy is dependent on the Russian Federation. Who needs Moldovan wines? Like the Georgians, they are focused on the post-Soviet market. They will just kill the winemaking and agriculture they live in. If we talk about Georgia, it is tourism. Even with limited flights, Russian tourists continue to travel there. They do not impose sanctions, guided by pragmatic interests and for fear of bankruptcy, ”the expert said.

Prospects for Ukraine

While the Kyiv authorities are making statements about the expediency of some states’ EU membership, the fate of the Ukraine application is uncertain.

Thus, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, said that it is impossible to quickly accept Ukraine into the European Union. The politician stressed that this process could take many years or even decades. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg previously asked Ukraine not to give full membership to the EU, but to develop a “special cooperation model”.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba also said that Kiev would not accept rejection of EU candidate status.

According to the political scientist Suzdaltsev, Ukraine has “zero” chances of joining the European Union.

“Even if you remove the war factor, Ukraine is a huge black hole. The EU does not have enough resources to support Kiev. “This is not even Poland, which is very expensive for Brussels,” he said.

Volodymyr Bruter expressed a similar view, noting that Germany and France will “resist” until the end of Ukraine.

“Scholz and Macron are discussing a new form of partnership for Ukraine without full membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina is ready to accept Macedonia and Montenegro. But not Ukraine – primarily because of economic concerns. The European economy cannot survive in such a large country. They do not have money for this, ”explained the expert.

If the European Union does not accept Ukraine, it will be difficult for Brussels to do the opposite with the applications of Georgia and Moldova.

“There must be a political solution in the EU. First of all, we need to wait for the borders of Ukraine to be clarified,” he said.