pieces of the puzzle

as are, Pedro Sánchez’s decision to postpone the general elections to 23 July It forces Mazón to delay as much as possible the irreparable deal with the far right. PP tries to avoid agreements with the party. abacalhas become one of the “star” themes of this new and impetuous election campaign, especially in the Valencian Community. The legal deadlines set June 26, when the Valencia Cortes will be formed, as the first milestone. From there the calendar leaves will begin to fall. The first vote for the investment, which Mazón will need an absolute majority, can take place exactly on the last day of the campaign, 21 July. If he didn’t get enough votes, he would get a second chance two days later. the date of the vote to determine the central government, however, there may be arguments that delay that session of Cortes for another 24 hours. On that second day, a simple majority would have sufficed to proclaim Mazón president. But I couldn’t have done it without his help. vox. In any case, a two-month period will begin to count, and after that, if no one is appointed, new elections will have to be held.

This will not happen. The question for PP is not when to reach an agreement with Vox, but when to sign it. So, knowing that Mazón will fail, the theory circulates (though not conclusive) that he could go to the first ballot without a deal with Vox to save his general election campaign and only to sign the alliance and submit his candidacy. again to be approved by the Cortes after being held.

It is true that Mazón has insisted on his desire to rule alone for months. But the numbers don’t give it away, and Vox doesn’t seem to give up on presenting itself on a platform as challenging as its own. It is Spain’s fourth community by residents and GDP. Abascal’s has not grown as much as hoped, and they are not as decisive in as many municipalities as they think. But they keep moving forward. In cities like Elche, the community’s third city, PP needs your vote to become mayor. And in the Cortes, not only does Mazón need seats to be sworn in as head of the Generalitat, they are the only ones who can stabilize his government and guarantee the approval of budgets. In the Valencian Community, bipartisanship ended a long time ago. But just to make way bookselling Worse still, the parties that dreamed of a surprise that never came in 2015 are no longer a part of it: for the first time since their emergence, neither Ciudadanos nor Podemos will be represented in the Valencian Parliament in this legislature.

Thus, with the creation of the autonomous assembly on 26 June, we will begin to see how the pieces of the new Valencian political puzzle fit into place. The members of the Council, consisting of the president of the Cortes, the second authority of the community, and a total of five deputies, must be elected. This parliamentary arithmetic indicates that three will correspond to PP and two to PSOE. Compromís and Vox would have no seat in the body that governs Parliament, unless the popular and socialists gave each a seat.

In the case of Mazón, history forces him to make that concession. When one party needed the other to rule, the Cortes presidency was the first bargaining chip. In 1995, Zaplana had to hand over the administration of the Parliament to Vicente González Lizondo, then president of the Union of Valencia. And Ximo Puig handed it over in 2015 to the then leader of the Bloc, Enric Morera, the most important nationalist force in the Reconciliation coalition, who has presided over the House for the past eight years. However, it is not predictable that Mazón will give this permission. extreme right There will be the Presidency of the Cortes before the 23J general election, as it would be as much to make it clear as to make an agreement that it would not be appropriate to take lightly until the elections are held. So if there’s no agreement between PP and Vox, and it looks like when lawmakers take office at the end of June, Mazón can use the precedent set by Puig on an interim basis. In 2015, socialist Francesc Colomer presided over the Cortes for twenty days, while PSOE, Compromís and Podemos continued to negotiate the first Botànic. Having signed this, Colomer resigned to leave the post to Morera and was appointed as the regional Tourism Secretary.

However, as Mark Twain said, history repeats itself sometimes, but never again. The conditions under which Mazón would have to act are fundamentally different from those faced by Zaplana or Puig. Although his constituency was on the right, González Lizondo’s Valencian League was above all a party that described itself as “regionalist” and thus abandoned broad-based competition with the PP; a legislator to devour him. Twenty years later, when an alliance was again formed between a more cross-professional party and a nationalist party, this time on the left, the PSOE and Compromís had a common goal: Restoring the Community’s reputation after scandals Dozens of them exploded in the final years of the PP’s mandate, and this goal silenced their differences in the first phase.

But PP and Vox are national parties without any regionalist or nationalist nuances and compete directly in the same niche. Feijóo’s result in the general election in July could alleviate or further complicate the situation for Mazón. But whatever happens, he’ll still need Vox, and Vox won’t be an ally he can neglect for a moment. Before the polls opened last Sunday, Vox made it difficult for PP by picking a single candidate as the headline. The fact that Carlos Flores has been convicted of ill-treatment already puts not only Mazón in a difficult position, but also Feijóo himself. But in addition to that, he is someone with a solid legal background and an extensive arsenal of rhetoric. The far-right has nothing to do with the figure that the Castilla y Leon Government has promoted to vice-president.

Everything suggests that dealing with Vox in Valencia will be much more difficult than in Valladolid. And, of course, the far-right will demand not only the autonomous presidency of Parliament, but also the Consell and vice-presidential offices of some consulates, as well as demanding the disbanding of appointments in companies and institutions affiliated with the Generalitat. Mazón is trying to steer the talks through “programmatic agreements”, not with the government. It was the first thing Moreno Bonilla did when he became president of the Andalucía Junta. Vox came out of this experience burnt out. The ten assistants Mazón is missing are the same thing that Mañueco lost in Castilla y Leon when he succumbed to all of Abascal’s dictates, and what Vox now wants to repeat here. The path that the rest of the legislature will take will depend on how this pulse now takes place on both sides.

On the left, the tension will increase both within each power and between parties acting on that side of the ideological spectrum. There are still those who advocate maintaining a common line of action between the PSOE and Compromís in search of a new “progressive majority” as if four years had passed in four days. But this looks like a mirage. HE botanicalHe died at 28M, already badly injured after a shaken legislature. It is strange because it is obvious that it has to be written, but it seems necessary to underline it.

At the national socialist committee held this week, Ximo Puig has already stated that he does not intend to relinquish any of the two positions corresponding to him in the PSOE’s Table of Cortes to Compromís. Until it happens, we won’t know if it is. But it would be expected. The call for a general election may give the wrong idea that the left is united against the threat that the right will reach the Spanish government along with the extreme right. But it is not. Now it’s time for each bar to hold its candle. And socialists know that the only way to save furniture in this new call is to definitely mark the differences with those who have had partners so far.

No one was surprised by the call last Monday. general elections. However, after analyzing the maneuver after the initial surprise, it’s true that Pedro Sánchez didn’t have a better option after a serious setback. 28 Million. In the votes, the PSOE did not suffer as big a rout as it seemed. But in regional power, the bleeding was one of the biggest in its recent history. For Sánchez, it was a matter of trying to capitalize on the former before PP became even more solid with the latter. And for that, he had to act fast, as he did. His worth is that he saw first of all that this was his trump card and had the courage to play it. But just because the move is talented doesn’t mean it has more reason to go well. Is it possible that Sánchez will get a sufficient result to re-establish the government after 23J? Clear. If there is one thing Spanish national politics has proven in recent years, it is the unprecedented speed with which events occur, from the first successful no-confidence motion to the formation of the first coalition government after the restoration of democracy. . But today it is difficult to imagine such a situation. After the elections, it seems more likely to conclude that a new phase will open in the PSOE, without Sánchez at the helm. And if that happens, Ximo Puig will have to rethink his own strategy.