Election frenzy. It happens once in a while. The alternation between the main parties, the PSOE and the PP, has been registered since the beginning of democracy in all governments, from the center to the autonomous, although in coalition with other formations as in recent times, it has also passed through many local administrators. . But experts warn that the cycle change in the last election, which had full effect on the Generalitat, spoiled plans, as politics and national strife outweighed local government.
A simple look at the graph of the percentage of votes received by different political entities in the Valencian Community from 1977 to the present shows that: Change between PSOE and PP has been steady Since the fall of UCD led by Adolfo Suárez. Socialists reached their highest level of support in 1982, which coincided with Felipe González’s accession to the Head of Government; this dynamic was sustained only a year later when Joan Lerma did the same at the Generalitat. This support remained fairly high until González’s popularity fell and the first cycle change by PP.
It was Eduardo Zaplana who first managed to lead the Generalitat with an absolute majority in 1995, and a year later it was José María Aznar who arrived in La Moncloa after fierce opposition to the Socialists. The popular ones had a long and sweet term in the Community from there, with Zaplana himself reaching an absolute majority in 1999 and his replacement as José Luis Olivas at the end of the legislature, coinciding with his appointment as minister. Then came Francisco Camps’ three consecutive wins in 2003, 2007 and 2011; This year marks the last year PP reached the highest level of support in the Valencian Community, and also coincides with the inauguration of Mariano Rajoy as the country’s president. . replaced the socialist José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who led the two legislatures after his first victory in 2004He is in complete conflict over the Iraq war and the Atocha attacks.
In the midst of all this, although the PSOE did not allow it to retake the Generalitat, it had a slight boost of support in Valencian territory coinciding with the arrival of Zapatero.
The PP’s biggest setback was to await the resignation of Camps, who, despite receiving less than popular votes, was attributed to the PSOE, precisely as the cause of the lawsuits and corruption scandals plaguing the party. He re-chaired the Council with Ximo Puig in 2015, thanks to the first Botànic pact also ratified by Compromís and Podemos. This coalition of purples in the District Executive was renewed four years later with Pedro Sánchez at the head of the Government since 2018, with the Socialists ahead at the polls.
And so far, the changes in the cycle recorded until the 28th of May election day, leading to a new spin that would allow the popular Carlos Mazón to head the Generalitat, and where, according to experts, the parameters were broken that were customary when determining outcomes and alternations. This is the view of Carlos Gómez Gil, sociologist and professor at the University of Alicante (UA), and he does not hesitate to point out that the specificity and value of locality and autonomy is a very exceptional choice. was blown up. As he stated, “This is the first major election event unaffected by factors such as proximity, territoriality, and direct problems of people. everything changed national issues, noise, and never-before-seen toxicity in politics».
The expert pointed out that the evaluation of the administration, the proposals of mayors and regional candidates have so far prevailed in such elections, “We found ourselves as a kind of political trump card. Like those related to ETA, they crossed all lines and real atrocities were heard”. Gómez Gil said that all of these, He adds that it concludes that “for the first time, a very valuable administration of an autonomous government does not translate into supporting the same ruler.”
For the UA sociologist, This is a new phenomenon that needs careful study. and affirms that the right moves like a fish in water. “As we see it in countries like Italy or Bulgaria, it’s not just here. The problem with leftist formations is that they don’t know how to interpret it and they feel overwhelmed. While they are fighting, he works in other coordinates that are correct and he is very clear about what he wants and how he wants to do it.”
A similar comment was made by Victoria Rodríguez, professor of Political Sciences at the Miguel Hernández University (UMH) in Elche, who acknowledged that general politics had a major impact in these elections and that the PP’s tactic of promoting anti-party voting had a major impact. is a comment. central government. Despite this, he thinks that support for the popular has not increased as much as expected. “We’ve seen how Ciudadanos got their votes – underlines – this is something they can achieve in practice without campaigning, because it has already been seen that this was due to Albert Rivera’s strategy error by not supporting Pedro Sánchez.” Rodríguez notes that Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s more moderate and centrist profile also contributes to this, but adds that “they will need more support if they want to win national elections.”
For the UMH professor, The decisive factor in these elections was the collapse of Podemos., something that statesmen emphasize distrust. “They didn’t screw things up here at the Generalitat, but they were brought down by the decline at the national level,” he emphasizes.
Rodríguez thinks that a similar trend of change to 1995 has been entered and there is more to see, such as Vox’s capacity to grow. «Something similar can happen to Ciudadanos, because it is an emotional vote, a punishment., but at a party with structure. We will see if it consolidates,” he emphasizes.
Regarding the changes in the cycle, the expert draws attention to the fact that they are non-ideological and fit voters who choose according to different conditions. “A smart, rational vote after all”, concludes.