A new element has been added in the regional elections, where polls showed a scenario of technical draw between right and left and everything would be determined by a handful of votes for the Generalitat government. more uncertainty for results. And this is nothing more than the rain forecast, which threatens to reduce participation and becomes a decisive factor in tipping the balance to one side or the other. Different political formations are fully aware of this and will mobilize their voters in this final distance of the campaign and will work to ensure that no one stays at home and encounters unwanted surprises.
Not a single drop had fallen since the beginning of the year, and amid the controversy over the cuts to the Tagus-Segura transfer that has largely dominated the electoral debate, farmers in the state were confirming that they were desperate for the impact this drought situation would have on their crops. But coincidence meant that after months of famine, heavy rains broke out at the very last stage of the campaign; elections.
Jorge Olcina, director of the University of Alicante’s (UA) Climatology Laboratory, points out that a second DANA will form, which will primarily affect the center and west of the peninsula, but that the peninsula will also be separated. A trail of instability on the Mediterranean coast that could lead to a Friday-to-Sunday storm. In his words, it is a situation that requires daily or even hourly monitoring. However, for now, it can be said that the weather is uncertain on Sunday, but it is still unclear whether it will be a rainy day.
In any case, the sheer threat has already raised alarm bells in different political groups, who are aware that any mistake by their potential voters can have decisive consequences.
The poll published last Sunday by Invest Group for the Iberian Press newspapers (INFORMACIÓN, Levante-EMV and Mediterráneo-El Periódico de Castellón) in the Community of Valencia predicts that the PP will win the election after swallowing almost all the Citizens. However, Botànic could hold the government for a third legislature despite having a single MP, notably 50 MPs compared to 49. The seat in dispute is specifically located in Valencia, and PSPV, Unides Podem and Vox would fight for it. The same survey highlights that the key to victory for the left will be in turnout, which is estimated at over 71.5%, according to the same study’s estimates.
In this sense, considering the abstention rates, it should be noted that the turnout in the previous regional elections moved around this figure. Although it fluctuated from 24% in 1995 to 32.2% in 1999 since the beginning of democracy, it remained at 26.3% in 2019 without going any further.
Therefore, any small change that can be recorded seems decisive for the results to be achieved next Sunday, so the weather forecast has become a serious threat to be considered. Carlos Gómez Gil, sociologist and professor at the University of Alicante (UA), thinks bad weather can affect participation, but that’s similar to what a gorgeous sunny day would do. As he points out, “there will be people who decide to stay home if it rains, but there will also be quite a few people who will choose to go to the beach or go out for fun if it’s the other way around. weekend. So I wouldn’t say it could be more demobilizing one way or the other ».
Gómez Gil also points out that if it finally rains, everything will depend on density. “It’s not the same thing when a calf arrives or a low amount of rain, because even after such a long drought it can be pleasant,” the expert said.
In any case, the UA professor thinks that if the rain finally gets heavy enough, it will basically act as a deterrent for people who don’t have a particular interest in voting or who aren’t clear who to vote for. “People who are interested – he explains – will go one way or another. The problem may be with unmotivated people who will use any excuse to stay at home.
This percentage of voters, in any case, is not small at all. It is estimated that 30 percent of the voters did not decide which political formation to vote for until the last week. This is a non-trivial group that can be of decisive importance in determining the color of regional government in the context of such stringent consequences. If a rainy Sunday occurs, a significant portion of this group may decide not to go to the polls.
Another segment of the population that may be affected by bad weather conditions is the elderly, who prefer to stay at home partially for health reasons. In any case, Gómez Gil is again referring to the intensity of the rain at this point. “It is clear that if it rains heavily and continuously, it will deter them, but otherwise they will go to vote, because they are people with very fixed traditions, they will certainly benefit from their morning walk or leaving mass. to put their votes in the ballot box,” he predicts.
Regardless, the truth is that all political establishments, both on the left where participation needs to be maximized, and on the right, where they do, are already paying attention to what’s going to happen this Sunday. they do not want to lose a single vote of their potential voters.
Call
PSPV campaign manager Miquel Soler thinks very much like the UA professor in the sense that he doesn’t know whether a rainy day or another day when the nice weather invites you in summer is more harmful. to take a look at the beaches. He also emphasizes that everything will depend on whether it rains constantly or not. In any case, what is very clear in the socialist ranks is that they cannot do much in the face of inclement weather and what they have above all is to mobilize their constituents and call for active participation. It is possible to formalize a third Botànic, once again at the forefront of the Generalitat Valenciana. The consolation Soler points to is that if it accelerates, it will affect all parties equally.
Alberto Ibáñez, who is also the campaign manager, but in this case from Compromís, refers to himself in similar terms. Of course, the Valencia formation puts the utmost emphasis on turnout, to the point where it envisions a campaign finale where one of the main elements of its rhetoric will be keeping its voters in maximum tension. In fact, they are expected to publish a video on social networks in which the message that the progress and rights made in these last two assemblies cannot remain on paper. Compromís’ view is that the oscillations that can be recorded in turnout due to rain are at most half a percentage point, but as Ibáñez points out, a percentage that should not be neglected in the current conditions of a technical draw. .
The third left formation involved is Unides Podem, which tried to get as much support as possible right from the start, taking into account that some polls have cast doubt on whether it will achieve the minimum 5% support required for representation. At the Valencian Courts. Campaigner César Lledó reiterates his confidence in exceeding these votes, although he is also aware that rain can affect turnout. In this sense, he emphasizes that they will continue to mobilize the voter base in the remaining campaign activities and to call on the people to go to schools en masse on Sunday.
He is shown less worried in the ranks of PP. Miguel Barrachina, the person in charge of the election operation, is confident that bad weather will not change the outcome, given the illusion of change they perceive among their voters. He adds that these excuses are from other political formations, citing the PSOE, saying that he changed the central action he had planned in Valencia to keep it secret while they risked and filled the arena. In any case, he emphasizes that his party has been trying to mobilize since the beginning of the campaign and will continue to do so in this last period.
Provincial coordinator Juan Ignacio López-Bas on behalf of Ciudadanos does not hesitate to point out that rains may make conditions, although he does not know how it will translate into results that both his own political formation and others can achieve. In any case, the oranges will apply for vote mobilization, both in pending cases and through social networks.
Alicante’s regional candidate, Vox’s Ana Vega, has great confidence in her voters as she claims loyalty is around 85%. However, he is also in favor of encouraging people to vote, convinced that a change is needed in the Generalitat Valenciana and that the left must be thrown out.