“Tusk can say that he will pay even 10,000 zlotys, that he will do this or that. The result of this will be that he will not win any votes, while he will lose liberal votes, says Prof. Mieczysław Ryba, historian, member of the Board of the Institute of National Remembrance.
READ ALSO: Hołownia against valorization of 500 plus. Will he support the PO project? “There is no place in Poland today to give everything to everyone”
wPolityce.pl: Jarosław Kaczyński announced the 800 plus program. How do you assess the promise of this valorisation?
Prof Mieczyslaw Ryba: From the perspective of Law and Justice and the policies it pursues, it is a strong shot aimed at a particular section of society. This program is declared at a high level of credibility, because let’s not forget that when similar promises are made by Civic Platform, it is simply counterproductive. However, when PiS talks about it, it is credible to its core voters and mobilizes for elections.
In response to the ruling party’s proposal, Donald Tusk made a proposal to pay out 800 plus from 1 June. Is this just a form of overcoming the demands of PiS, or would it actually be better to accelerate this valorization?
Tusk can say that he will pay even 10,000 zlotys, that he will do this or that. The result will be that he will not win any votes, but that he will lose liberal votes. Many small entrepreneurs, self-employed people who are against PiS’s social policy, have voted for Burgerplatform. I think it could be up to 20 percent of the electorate that escapes the Platform towards the Confederacy. From the point of view of the PO, playing a game in the discipline of PiS – social and family policy, where PiS has great credibility and for which it is the main area of focus – is a mistake in my opinion. The platform has nothing to gain here. However, they have no other idea, so they imitate the ruling party, only more. If people have the choice between the real PiS and the counterfeit PiS, it is obvious that they will choose the original.
In the context of Donald Tusk outbidding PiS for social promises, how much can the Confederacy gain from disappointed PO voters of liberal origin?
If the Confederacy does not adopt very radical positions, strange events, for example from Korwin-Mikke, but consistently criticizes this policy, as it does from its own point of view, it has a very good chance of winning the votes of the free market PO. voters. The PO is no longer a free market party and if you think about it you don’t know what it is. Economically it is unknown, ideologically it has moved to the left, trying to become comparable to its various competitors, without bringing any quality of its own, apart from consistent anti-PiS. Here is its only credibility and it is really trying to dominate other opposition parties in this area, while it does not have its positive program and it is difficult to say what the Civic Platform actually is.
There are voices again, for example from PSL and the Hołownia movement, that Poland cannot afford this valorisation. Isn’t such a story suicidal action by the opposition – to say such things just before the parliamentary elections?
Depends on who. From the point of view of the PSL, this is probably not a good move, because the small voters of the Farmer’s Party don’t feel that way. It’s different from Hołownia, but when we talk about Kosiniak-Kamysz, I don’t think it’s a good move. However, from a Confederate point of view, it’s a hit because it’s not a majority of voters, but it’s real and these various social issues excite some voters for various reasons. This is primarily a story of big budget expenses, covered by their taxes. This is where the Confederacy can really win.
Kosiniak-Kamysz and Hołownia say that the payment of 800 plus benefits should depend on the income criterion and the status of a working person. How to evaluate such an idea in the context of Jarosław Kaczyński’s?
This is an attempt to stand out. On the other hand, the question we are talking about – a typical “social assistance”, also for the poor, or a family policy that actually supports families regardless of their material status – these are two approaches, two different philosophies of life.
Is the submission of social proposals at the PiS weekend convention just the beginning or the culmination of the ruling party’s election bids?
I honestly don’t know. Thanks to them, PiS can certainly strengthen itself in the social electorate, but will not gain new voters. It seems to me that ideological issues will also be emphasized, such as defending children against sexualization, which is extremely important to many people and is becoming increasingly important. Issues of security and infrastructure will also be discussed, which are also in dispute. Even if PiS continues to raise social issues, it doesn’t really need to multiply its electorate.
How should the implementation of the “welfare state” program be judged after several years of rule by Law and Justice?
It is enough not only to look at the average wage and unemployment, because everything has changed radically. It is enough to go to the countryside or to a small town to see what they look like. People’s well-being or well-being is not only a derivative of how much we earn, which is of course very important, but also the roads we have, whether we have a water supply system, sewage system, etc. are the issues that made the province very different then headquarters. Poland “A” and “B”, large agglomerations versus small towns – this has radically changed in favor and the huge gap between them has been bridged.
Assuming Civic Platform won the election or assembled a governing coalition, would Donald Tusk continue this PiS-initiated social policy trend?
It’s all very vague. Something would have to be maintained, then other things could be introduced that would change his view of it. Donald Tusk has changed his mind so many times that even at the level of comments, seeing what he will implement and what he won’t is a fortune telling. If Tusk came to power, he would have a very exotic coalition – from the left to Hołownia. In such a situation it would be very difficult to draw an optimal line.
Interviewed by Pawel Nienaltowski
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Source: wPolityce