This is a segment of the electorate that has always been targeted by political formations, because it has not yet had a vote decided and may eventually join their cause. However, in these elections, the interest in persuading the undecided increased exponentially, as they could be decisive in the outcome of the regional elections, given the tightness of the polls. And it is estimated that around 30% of voters will wait the week before 28M to determine which party they support; Young people, on the other hand, are another group that politicians try to persuade, although, according to experts, they often start from a progressive inclination.
Most polls published so far show that the color of the next Government of the Community of Valencia will be determined by a handful of votes. It will all depend on whether Unides Podem can break the 5% barrier, which is the minimum percentage required to be represented on the Cortes. If that were the case, Botànic would have been closer to rebroadcasting with the left-wing trio, otherwise it would have been right with PP at the helm who had all the points to win the presidency. of the Generalitat.
It is in this narrow context that the undecided will be of paramount importance in the outcome of the elections. As in the last election, it is estimated that around a third of voters will decide to vote within the last week, and this is no small percentage. Based on the level of turnout achieved in the last elections, there would be around 828,000 voters across the Community who would find themselves in this situation, 280,000 in the case of the province of Alicante. The undecided will also be important in the results of the municipal elections, but in this case everything will depend on the difference in support that exists between the left and the right in each of the municipalities.
The other group that can have a significant impact is particularly the group of young people who will vote for the first time in this call and who have reached the age of majority and will therefore have to decide whom to vote for. they give their support. It reaches 186,971 at the regional level and 59,550 at the provincial level.
So what do experts think about the behavior of these two groups? Carlos Gómez Gil, sociologist and professor at the University of Alicante (UA), points out that the 30% undecided rate is a common rate in the recent elections, both nationally and regionally, and there is no other explanation beyond that. They are people who stop making decisions. In his own words, “There are voters who are completely convinced and politicized, whose ideology and which party to vote for are clear from the start, but here we are talking about people who do this sort of thing, as in other matters. Therefore, we are not dealing with a conscious process of undefinedness, but that is how things work».
Regardless, Gómez Gil adds that the high percentage of undecided voters is crucial to mobilizing. Here, too, different tactics used by political formations come into play. As the UA professor was already pointing out at the time, the left is trying to sell the administration run by Botanic’s regional director, while the right “appeals more to courage and national-based criticism. With the constant references to Bildu and terrorism, we are now living proof of this.
And what can offer better results? Gómez Gil points out that the right-wing tactic, which he describes as “electric voting”, may work better in big cities where “the disturbances of national politics are more pervasive”. However, he adds, “I doubt that in small municipalities this can mobilize votes, because those at the proximity and management level outweigh.” And that’s because “we really have only one big city like Valencia, because the city that follows it like Alicante is medium-sized and has a very distinct neighborhood structure. in which proximity and knowledge of what’s close also prevails».
Regarding the votes of the youth, Gómez Gil points out that contrary to popular belief, there is a group that goes to the polls. According to the polls, only 2.5% of voters who are certain not to vote are young, compared to 3.4% of 55-64 year olds or 3.7% of 75 year olds. The expert points out that considering their political orientation, it is reasonable to think that they will support political formations that offer reliable solutions, especially considering that there is a voter group experiencing unemployment or housing problems. Although they mostly have a progressive profile. “We are talking about an open youth with very clear concepts of gender equality or recognition of the LGTB collective. Therefore, a group that leans more to the left than to the right is an ideology that finds more ground in older people. You could say that people become more conservative as they get older,” she emphasizes.
Lluís Catalá, professor of the Department of Sociology at the University of Alicante (UA), points out that although the percentage of undecided people is high, it is gradually decreasing. As he explained, “There were more people who didn’t know who to vote for at the time of full bipartisanship because they couldn’t find a viable option to respond to their demands.” But he adds that this is likely to change as other newer political formations emerge, notably Podemos, that broaden the spectrum and offer more possibilities and nuances to voters.
Concerning the youth, Catalá believes this is a largely rebel vote and does not necessarily result in majority parties. “We are talking about boys and girls who have not voted before, so the only political reference they have is the current government and opposition parties. So those who tend to vote left will certainly choose to support a party they recognize to be newer than the PSOE, such as Compromís. The same can happen on the right, but in this case by voting for Vox instead of voting for the PP,” he emphasizes.
In the same sense, the UA professor underlines that the votes of the young are more rebellious than those of the old. In his own words, “they are in reaction mode, they are more against it. Retirees’ votes are more conservative, which is evident in their support for political formations that, for example, offer greater guarantees in the collection of pensions.
Regardless, the reality is that all parties are trying to persuade the undecided and voters who will make their debut in the next election. They highlight their campaign from PSPV-PSOE, touring all parts of the Community for opposing ideas, all with a heavy presence on social networks. They express themselves in similar terms in PPCV, where they value more than 2,000 actions with different groups to prepare the government program. In Ciudadanos, they placed the undecideds at the center of their discourse and realized that they were mostly part of the electoral space, in line with Compromís, which, as at the beginning of the campaign, is now focused on mobilizing its usual electorate. The offers are mainly aimed at this group. Vox, for its part, focuses on the message, exposing their rule in Castilla y León, the only autonomy where they have government powers. Finally, Unides Podem focuses its campaign on the squares and neighborhoods of cities, promoting the administration and its candidates.