The campaign is three days away, but different political forces have been calculating for some time the results they can achieve and how abstaining will affect them in a scenario where results are expected very tightly. at the regional level. So much so that it is very possible that the balances will change one way or another. depending on Combines What We Can Do whether or not to reach the 5% barrier would be represented. And here the left makes all kinds of impressions as if they’ve seen the ears of the wolf, because Botànic members are turning to mobilize their constituencies, fearing they may pay the price for the wear and tear in Government. It’s something the PP threw out the rest, fully aware that a possible attack on Consell’s presidency depended on only a handful of votes.
It has always abstained in the autonomous elections of the Valencian Community, and moreover with very similar registrations. Thus, since the first elections in 1983, the rate has been approaching 30%, the lowest level at 32.2% in 1999, when it was highest, and 24% in 1995, when the PP reached the Generalitat. In the last call in 2019, it remained at 26.3%.
It is also the case in the province of Alicante, with some very specific exceptions, that the level of abstention is higher than that of Valencia and Castellón and logically higher than the Community average. The highest peak was recorded in 2015 with 34% and the lowest in 1995 with 24.8%. In the elections four years ago, the record was 27.9%.
So everything indicates that abstention will once again be present in the elections on 28 May and at similar rates based on historical data. Something that will be of paramount importance in a scenario where some polls have warned that the Generalitat Government will narrowly decide and there will be options to reorganize the Botànic pass. Unides Podem receives at least 5% of the votes.
Lluís Catalá, PhD in Sociology and professor at the University of Alicante (UA), explains that high abstention has always hurt the left more because of what the expert calls the vote of discontent, but since 2010 he has added that: first of all, the right is hurt by cases of corruption. gives.
In the face of these elections, it is the left that is most at risk of being harmed by the challenge of the abstentionists. This is what Catalá points out, pointing out that only one out of three elections had progressive voters who voted, and they did so at times like the 2004 general election, which coincided with the 11M attacks. “Now – he emphasizes – things have changed as the parties that gained momentum at that time had already touched the government, and on top of that a certain atmosphere of division was perceived due to the presentation and absence of Sumar. The deal with United We Can. All this is a breeding ground for abstentions ».
Victoria Rodríguez, professor of Political Science and Management at Miguel Hernández University (UMH), points out that, like the PP, the PSOE has a more loyal vote, so abstaining votes can affect it. smaller parties, so I find it normal that they try to encourage mobilization. But he also warns that political changes normally occur when high levels of participation are achieved. Regarding the wear and tear of government action, he points out that “this may affect the Socialists more, the party that holds the presidency.”
With all this, it is not surprising that all parties, both right and left, are turning to their own mobilization, as another determinant factor is predicted to be above 20 percent. percentage of voters decide they will vote during the campaign and 10% last week.
And what are the different political forces doing in this highly ambiguous context? PSPV campaign manager Miquel Soler said: “We want everyone to vote because we’re talking about elections that directly affect citizens, but logically, we’re interested in making it clear that everything is set very well and they can’t stay.” at home. Thus, activities are organized for young people and all kinds of groups, especially those who will vote for the first time.
On behalf of Compromís, its spokesperson, Alberto Ibáñez, says, “We are focused on explaining our rule and making it clear that a handful of votes depend on us to keep moving forward or return to the catacombs.” In this sense, they also pay special attention to the young electorate by using dissemination tools such as Tik Tok or podcasts.
César Lledó, campaign manager of Unides Podem, the entity in the center of all eyes, believes they will break the 5% election barrier. In his words, “We’re not particularly worried because both our polls and other external polls put us well above that percentage, so we don’t think we’re in that scenario.” In any case, the formation is doing everything it can to mobilize its potential voters, running its electoral routes through different municipalities designed for this purpose.
The right side is also in active mode. “Contrary to the mantra that abstinence benefits right-wing formations, we got the best results when more people voted,” says PP campaign manager Miguel Barrachina. Popular, in this sense, maintains a frenzied agenda for the dissemination of “cross-propositions that can even catch the discontent of the left.”
Election manager Fernando Llopis from Ciudadanos isn’t throwing in the towel despite negative polls. “There is no party to replace our political ideology. That’s why we’re holding multiple events and getting together with groups to continue to support us.”
Finally, Vox candidate for the Alicante autonomous election, Ana Vega, says, “We are not particularly worried about abstaining, as we have such a loyal electorate.” However, he acknowledges that things will be very tight and “that’s why we’re trying to attract more support.”