“If Donald Tusk agrees to have the other leaders of the opposition parties stand on this march as equals, it is possible that they will also appear there, but at the moment they feel blackmailed. On the other hand, the other leaders of the opposition parties are so far apart on this issue – on the one hand, they can hardly not applaud an important initiative by the opposition that mobilizes voters, but they also realize that if this event would be appropriated by the PO, participation in such a march is not in their interest,” says Prof. Arkadiusz Jabłoński, a sociologist from the Catholic University of Lublin, referring to the march organized by PO on June 4.
wPolityce.pl: Donald Tusk called everyone for a march organized by PO on June 4 “against high prices, theft and lies, for free elections and a democratic, European Poland.” What is the political significance of this initiative?
Prof. Arkadiusz Jablonski: This is another initiative to make PO the Leader of the Opposition, to indicate that Donald Tusk’s actions are the ones that should compel other opposition groups to support PO, as otherwise it will act for PiS. There is a hint of a kind of blackmail in this, which has long been heard not only in the statements of Donald Tusk. This blackmail is based on the fact that if the entire opposition does not join the initiatives of the PO, it will work for the government. The march on June 4 is treated with extreme reservations by the rest of the opposition, as this event could turn out to be a show of weakness, not strength, and not just the weakness of the PO, but of the entire opposition. If this march does not have a very large turnout, especially compared to the initiatives, let’s call them patriotic, then the weakness of the entire opposition would be revealed in this way.
How many people would have to attend such a march for the meeting to be considered a success?
The number of participants should be similar to large patriotic rallies, i.e. at least tens of thousands of people, but if it is to become a nationwide campaign showing strong support for the opposition, then this turnout should be closer to the turnout mentioned by President Wałęsa, i.e. a million people on the streets – this would be the real voice of the people, which could put the rulers in a very difficult situation.
However, given the gatherings of opposition supporters in the past, it is more likely that there will be around 20,000 participants in this march. And then what?
Then there would be an attempt to present this event as a success by circles closer to the opposition. If at least tens of thousands of people are present at this march, it can be said that the support for this event was enormous. However, if the number of participants in this march is significantly lower than in the rallies organized by patriotic circles, it will still be considered a failure. It seems to me that it was important for Donald Tusk to manage the June 4 date in such a way that other opposition groups could not come up with their own initiatives. Somehow it certainly succeeded.
What can the leaders of the other opposition parties do in the face of such a specific call to the board by Donald Tusk? Włodzimierz Czarzasty has already spoken out so much about this march that he will probably be there, it seems that Robert Biedroń also responded positively to the call of the head of the PO, but the rest of the opposition leaders are not eager for their participation.
There is still a lot to negotiate here. If Donald Tusk agrees to have the other leaders of the opposition parties stand on this march as equals, it is possible that they will also appear there, but at the moment they feel blackmailed. On the other hand, the other leaders of the opposition parties are so far apart on this issue – on the one hand, they can hardly not applaud an important initiative by the opposition that mobilizes voters, but they also realize that if this event would be appropriated by the PO, it is not in their interest to participate in such a march. It wouldn’t be in their best interest to appear on stage next to Donald Tusk, as there could be words advocating making one list. It would be a propaganda defeat for the rest of the opposition.
Donald Tusk could say from the podium that there is no single list yet, but at least he managed to call all opposition leaders to a march organized by the PO.
Yes, he could say: “We are here together, look how many people support us, so what’s stopping us from uniting”, etc. This would benefit Donald Tusk’s propaganda and the other opposition leaders would be left with nothing more to have.
Adam Stankiewicz spoke
READ ALSO:
– ONLY HERE. Vice-President of the PSL: On June 4, there will be a march of the Civic Platform, not of the entire opposition. I will not be there
– ONLY HERE. Members of PSL, Poland 2050 and the left are skeptical of Tusk’s march. “I’m not going”; ‘I don’t know what I’m going to do on June 4’
Source: wPolityce