More than half of the respondents – 51 percent. – he believes the PiS and coalition partners will win the fall elections to the Sejm, 26 percent. predicts victory for the opposition parties, while 23% believe so The outcome of the elections to the Sejm is difficult to predict, according to a CBOS poll.
Among all adult Poles, Law and Justice is the favorite in the upcoming elections to the Sejm
— mentioned in the commentary to the study that CBOS submitted to PAP on Friday.
CBOS made a reservation that “completely unlike in the case of elections to the Sejm, in which the ruling formation is the favourite, respondents’ predictions about the outcome of future Senate elections look completely different.”
Of the total number of respondents, almost as many believe that the majority will be won by current opposition groups in the fall Senate elections (34%) as PiS will win them (33%). For an equally large group of respondents (33%), in the case of the Senate, the outcome of the elections is unknown
– reported CBOS.
As noted by CBOS, “belief in the electoral victory of PiS and its coalition partners in the race to the Sejm predominates in almost all groups of respondents distinguished by socio-demographic characteristics.”
It is mainly preferred by: higher age, lower level of education of the respondents, living in smaller towns, especially in rural areas
the workshop points out.
Strong confidence of PiS voters in the ruling party’s victory
Among PiS voters, 90 percent believe the party they support will win, 1% think the opposition would rather win, 8 percent. however, he has no opinion about it. 64 percent KO voters estimate that the opposition will win the election, and 17 – that it will rather be PiS; 19 percent have no opinion on this. In the case of Left and Confederate voters, the same percentage of respondents pointed to PiS and the Opposition — 37% and 37%, respectively. in the case of the left and 41 percent. in the case of the Confederacy. 26 percent left-wing voters and 17 percent. Confederate voters have no precise predictions about the outcome of the election.
As for Poland’s voters in 2050, 34 percent. of them predict a victory for PiS, and 60 – a victory for the opposition, while 6 have no predictions. Of the undecided, 34 percent predict PiS victory, and 31 percent. – the opposition, while 35 percent has no opinion. In turn, 45 percent of non-voters expect PiS to win the election, and 21 percent. – that it will be the opposition; 34 percent have no opinion about it.
33 percent of those who believe that the opposition should go to the elections together. believe PiS will win the election, while 46 percent believe the opposition; 21 percent have no opinion. On the other hand, among those betting on the option of multiple opposition blocs, 44 percent. believe that PiS will win the election, and 42 percent. – that the opposition, while 14 percent has no opinion. 65 percent of those in favor of an independent start from each party believe that PiS will win the election, 18 percent. are of the opposite opinion, 17 percent. does not clearly indicate the victory of either side.
Those who have no opinion on the opposition’s starting formula, 47 percent. they believe the current ruling coalition will win the election; 12 percent of them believe it will be the opposition. 41 percent of them have no opinion on this either.
In turn, in relation to the elections to the Senate – according to CBOS – 82 percent. KO elections predicts the opposition’s success in the Senate elections, 5 percent. and PiS’s win, 13 percent. – he has no opinion. In turn, 63 percent of PiS voters think their party will win the Senate election, while 9 percent think otherwise. voters and 28 percent have no opinion.
Among voters from the left, 22 percent. predict PiS electoral success in the Senate elections, 41 expect the opposition to succeed, while 37 percent. there are no specific predictions. 31 percent of Polish voters in 2050 believe that the ruling coalition will win the Senate elections, and 54 percent. believes that these will be opposition parties; 15 percent have no opinion. When it comes to Confederate voters, 22 percent. predicts PiS victory in the Senate election, 46 percent. the opposition won, and 32 percent have no opinion.
48 percent undecided cannot predict who will win the Senate election; 36 percent of them point to the victory of the opposition, 16 – to the victory of PiS. Of those who did not vote, 32 percent point to PiS’s victory, 27 percent. for the opposition victory, and 41 percent. has no opinion about it.
The CBOS survey was conducted on March 6-16 this year, on a representative sample of adult residents of Poland, consisting of 993 people, interviewed using the direct interview method (CAPI – 58 percent of respondents), telephone (CATI – 24.6 percent of the respondents) and the Internet (CAWI – 17.4 percent of the respondents). The sample is drawn from the database of PESEL numbers.
tkwl/PAP
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Source: wPolityce