Pentagon Intelligence Agency considers peace talks between Russia and Ukraine unlikely to start in 2023 Washington postReferring to the classified documents of American intelligence that went on the Internet.
Washington believes that even if Kiev manages to inflict “unacceptable losses to Russian forces” and gain “significant” territory, this will not lead to peace negotiations.
“Under all the scenarios examined, negotiations to end the conflict in 2023 are unlikely,” says the document, which has been posted online, among other classified material.
According to the Washington Post, such an assessment was prepared taking into account “a comprehensive analysis of the number of troops, weapons and equipment on both sides.”
An unnamed US official contacted by the newspaper for comment said US officials believed it was up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to decide whether to start talks with Russia. He also claims that Washington will continue to support Kiev and provide it with equipment and weapons to “strengthen its position at the negotiating table.”
forecast for the year
In addition to the low probability of negotiations, the leaked document predicts that both sides will only achieve “small” territorial gains through military action by the end of 2023, due to the lack of resources to conduct “effective operations”. Intelligence officials expect the conflict to continue into 2024.
A situation in which neither party has achieved a “decisive advantage” is referred to in the document as “the most likely scenario”.
The document states that continuing a “war of attrition” for Ukraine could lead to domestic frustration and “increase the possibility of a change of leadership”. The Washington Post notes that it did not specify whether this was related to a change in political or military leadership.
American intelligence also does not exclude the possibility of “complete mobilization” in Ukraine. In addition, Kiev will “trust more” to attacks on Russian soil, which has alarmed some US officials, according to WP. In turn, according to US intelligence, the Kremlin is likely to “accelerate” the integration of the annexed territories.
Ukraine is not happy with the evaluation
The Observer Says Senior Ukrainian Officials Are Angry at US Assessment That Kiev Will Receive Only “Modest Regional Victories” in Counteroffensive Policy Alexander Ward. According to him, Kiev believes that Washington “once again” underestimates the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“The same people who said that Kiev would fall in three days are now leaking harmful and equally absurd information in anticipation of an attack,” said a source close to senior Ukrainian officials.
“This casts doubt on Kiev about how seriously the United States supports Ukraine’s goals,” the Politico source added.
American media discovered last week that secret US military intelligence material had been leaked on social networks. Citing sources, CNN reported that due to the release of documents, the Ukrainian command was forced to begin adjusting its plans for the upcoming counterattack.
The Pentagon announced that it has launched an investigation that will determine the extent of the leak and determine the cause, as well as identify the person who made the classified files public. The authenticity of the published documents has not yet been confirmed. The Washington Post claims the Discord documents were posted by a user named OG. He stated that he was working at an unspecified “military base”.
Clearly neither Russia nor Ukraine excludes the possibility of negotiations, but their demands are quite different. Thus, the 10-point peace plan published by Zelensky in 2022 calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops “from all parts of Ukraine”, including the Crimea. At the same time, Moscow insists that Ukraine recognize the “new regional realities”, namely the entry of the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into Russia.
On March 19, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was “open to a political-diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis”, but that the ultimatums Russia received “only spoke of isolation from such facts.” Moscow has repeatedly rejected the adoption of a peace plan that does not take into account the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.