“PiS probably gets about 40 percent of the vote. vote, but most likely the rest of the opposition, apart from the Confederacy, will together have the majority of the seats. However, it is one thing to have the most seats, but quite another to be able to form a government. The prospect of Tusk as Prime Minister would be daunting to many, and it is hard to imagine Trzaskowski in this position. The fact that the opposition is likely to have more seats than PiS therefore does not bring anything new compared to the 2019 elections,” says Prof. Henryk Domański, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Sciences.
wPolityce.pl: How would you summarize the political situation of individual parties after the winter?
Prof Hendrik Domanski: When it comes to successes, I think it applies to PSL as it maintains support above 5 percent. This confirms that this is a party that still counts.
However, there are still polls in which PSL is below the electoral threshold.
Yes, but this is not the situation that was, say, a few years ago, ie where the PSL fluctuated well below five percent and everyone was amazed how it happened that it got into parliament. However, when it comes to other political parties, the distances between them are in fact very stable. I see no signs of an increase in the Confederation’s ratings, although it should be emphasized that support for the Confederation remains more or less stable at around 7-9 percent, proving that there is a demand in Polish society for a party that however, is somewhat anti-Ukrainian and sometimes pro-Russian. As far as PiS is concerned, government ratings on so-called social voting have risen very sharply since January, by about 5-4 percent. I mean the answers to questions from CBOS, such as: “What is your attitude towards Prime Minister Morawiecki’s government?”, “How do you assess the current economic situation?”. This situation is due to stabilization – fuel prices are not rising, issues related to energy prices have not proved deadly for Poland. This is actually the most important thing for the rulers that they came out of the winter unscathed.
When it comes to PiS, you talk about stable viewing figures for this party, but before the start of winter there were many voices that this party could look very battered after this time of year, including through to the lack of coal, rise in energy prices. Meanwhile, a series of recent polls show a slight upward movement for this party.
This is probably related to the above-mentioned improvement in the assessment of the social and economic situation in Poland.
How do you think the upcoming election campaign will play out in light of this outline of the post-winter situation? How many election commissions will the opposition set up?
This variant of Poland’s start in 2050 with PSL is the most likely. My guess is that KO and Lewica will start separately. So there would be a list of Poland 2050 and PSL, Links, KO and of course the fourth Confederation. However, what has changed in recent months and is worth noting is the strong weakening of Donald Tusk’s position as a reliable politician who guaranteed the success of the opposition. At the moment his situation is worsening after various speeches and accusations against him, including by supporters of the PO, that there is no coherence here and that there is contradiction with himself. There is also internal conflict within the PO between Trzaskowski and Tusk, which also weakens the PO’s ratings. Several reports indicate that a scenario is emerging where Tusk would be replaced by Trzaskowski. This would have both advantages and disadvantages from the point of view of the PO, but people probably wouldn’t believe it anyway and thought that if the opposition won, Tusk would still be Prime Minister, or at least he would rule from the back seat . I would like to add one more important thing to the picture of the situation after the winter: the issue of obtaining funds from the KPO has become completely secondary. It is not mentioned at all, as if people were already convinced that we will not get this money before the elections anyway, because the European Union does not want it.
Earlier there were many voices that this could be the central issue of the election campaign, even the key, which could cause PiS to lose. The opposition will probably try to return to it and there will probably be no money, if only because, as everything indicates, the Constitutional Tribunal will not even raise the question of amending the law in the Supreme Court.
Poles believe it is necessary to be in the European Union, but on the other hand they see it pursuing interests that do not necessarily coincide with Poland’s interests. You see such a more realistic picture of the EU. Certainly the PO will use the subject of KPO as it is currently difficult to find a serious topic apart from some errors related to agricultural policy and grain imports from Ukraine, but here we have to adapt to the EU decision to maintain duty-free imports of grain from Ukraine so that the government can easily neutralize this topic – that it is not the government’s fault, but that the EU throws logs under your feet.
Then how did you present the situation of PiS before the election campaign? You indicate that he will likely face four opposition lists, including the Confederacy.
This does not change anything compared to 2019, PiS will probably get about 40 percent. vote, but most likely the rest of the opposition, apart from the Confederacy, will together have the majority of the seats. However, it is one thing to have the most seats, but quite another to be able to form a government. The prospect of Tusk as Prime Minister would be daunting to many, and it is hard to imagine Trzaskowski in this position. So the fact that the opposition is likely to have more seats than PiS brings nothing new compared to the 2019 election.
With a majority, the opposition can try to form a coalition government. Unless you think that PiS will form a coalition with one of the opposition parties or deal with the issue of attracting some deputies from individual parties to its side, which was recently mentioned by Ryszard Terlecki in an interview for “Sieci”.
Theoretically, one can imagine a situation where the government consists of the KO, Left, PSL and Poland 2050. However, the figure of Donald Tusk and the somewhat disheartening person Rafał Trzaskowski contradict this scenario. Can you imagine another prime minister from the opposition? Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz?
Perhaps that’s right, the name of the PSL leader as Prime Minister appears somewhere in there as one of the possible scenarios.
Let’s say, but it is still difficult to imagine a coalition government of opposition formations. All opposition parties should be equally interested in beating PiS, and I argue that’s not the case at all – it’s the PO that cares. That means that after the elections we can remain uncertain about who will govern, because then anything can happen.
For example, do you see a scenario where PiS forms a coalition with PSL and Poland 2050?
A coalition with PSL is the most likely scenario, and in addition there could be those individual transfers from MPs to PiS that you mentioned. It is striking that the opposition parties are currently unwilling to talk about their post-election government, which probably means they are aware of the many problems that a coalition government of the opposition parties would cause.
Adam Stankiewicz spoke
Source: wPolityce