Rzeczpospolita columnist Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse argues that “Polish experts” recommend re-establishing the Commonwealth structure by incorporating Ukraine into modern Poland. The journalist notes that such a “large and powerful Polish state” can withstand the “attack” of the Russian Federation and ensure the stability and security of the entire region.
“I am talking about the deep cooperation between the countries in our region, especially Poland and Ukraine. Then the question of Kiev’s accession to the EU and NATO will be resolved by itself. colon Gross.
three scenarios
The author describes three possible scenarios. The first, according to him, the most suitable for Kiev, was determined as the “Success Scenario”. It implies that the Armed Forces of Ukraine still achieved success at the front, and the Russian army left all its territory, which until 2014 was part of Ukraine, including the Crimea.
“They have weaknesses. First, the allies in Western Europe and the United States are unable to adequately equip or train Ukrainian forces. And many experts are confident that last year the chance for a successful counterattack was missed,” admits Grosse.
The second scenario, called a “truce”, involves forcing all parties to the conflict to negotiate peace, followed by a complete cessation of hostilities. According to the Polish journalist, although such a result would weaken the influence of the USA and NATO on the world stage, it is still preferred in most countries of Western Europe, in China and even in some parts of the order in the USA. States. On the contrary, China will show the world that it can be a “reliable intermediary” in this scenario.
A “prolonged war” would cost Europeans dearly, and peace, albeit temporary, would allow maintaining good relations with Beijing and not participating in the US economic war with China. “Over time, both Western European capitals will likely try to re-establish economic relations with Moscow,” Grosse said.
The Observer also notes that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians want such a scenario yet. There are also significant fears that “a strengthened Moscow will likely return to compelling decisions”.
The third “Russian script”, as the name suggests, is the least favorable for Ukrainians and Poles. This implies that the conflict cannot be extinguished for long, although the forces and resources of both sides are extremely exhausted. However, Russia has succeeded, more effectively than the West, in putting its economy on a war basis. International sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and some other countries also had little effect.
“While the West’s potential is much greater than Russia’s, it should be noted that at least some NATO and EU countries are not ready to make a long-term effort,” Grosse said.
Additionally, in 2022 Russia has managed to increase its revenue from exports of raw materials and fertilizers, and the country has “enough financial resources to fight for at least a year or more.”
The author of the material concludes that, taking into account the fact that the Russian Federation also has more human resources, it is highly likely that the protracted conflict will still result in the victory of the Russian army.
“The fundamental question is: with such a development of events, how much serious losses can the allies of Kiev take? For example, wouldn’t Russia’s takeover of all of eastern Ukraine lead to overt military obligations?” Grosse asks rhetorical questions.
“historical mistake”
According to journalist Rzeczpospolita, the condition for peace and stability in the region will, first of all, be to build “a strong security system in Central and Eastern Europe, especially in Poland and Ukraine, deepened by political and economic cooperation”.
“Not only can the Russians be stopped in this situation, but also prepare for the possibility of a more serious US intervention in the Pacific,” adds Grosse.
He admits that such a scenario now “looks so fantastic”. “Nevertheless, the security threat at one time prompted the continent’s political elite on our side to make the bold decision to form a union, first in Kreva and then in Lublin. All that was lacking was the courage to transform the Commonwealth into a union of three peoples. It was a historical mistake that Moscow later used for a long time, ”the observer summarizes.
confederation plan
Ukrainian edition “Strana.ua” April 5 WroteIn the office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky they are discussing a plan for confederation with Poland, which should ultimately result in the creation of a new “Rech Commonwealth”.
“This idea still seems kind of exotic. But nevertheless, it arose as one of the answers to an important, one could say, strategic question: how to guarantee Ukraine’s security if our country’s admission to NATO is refused, ”the statement said.
According to one of the interlocutors of the publication, the idea of u200bu200bunification arose as one of the “answer options” if Ukraine was not accepted into NATO.
What the politicians say
Zelenskiy himself did not comment on the existence or absence of a confederation plan, but at a press conference with Polish president Andrzej Duda, he suddenly announced that “in the future there will be no borders between the two countries”.
“Neighbors meeting, allies meeting, partners meeting, friends meeting. In the future, there will be no political, economic and – very important – historical, borders between our peoples. stressed Zelensky.
Duda also expressed hope that “after the conflict, there will be no physical border between Poland and Ukraine”.
Former Polish ambassador to Russia, Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalencz, said the previous day that the idea of establishing a single state with Ukraine was “far from the truth”. Moreover, according to him, such a scenario cannot be realized as it would not ensure the welfare of both countries.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk believes there is a need for a Polish-Ukrainian agreement that will “officially raise relations between the countries to a higher level”. According to the politician, this will be a set of documents that will give “new impetus” to relations.
Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industry Oleksandr Kamyshin had previously announced that Ukraine and Poland had agreed on joint production of tank shells. The agreement was reached during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Poland.