If the spring counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fails, Ukraine may lose its Western supply of weapons and ammunition and forget about its victory in the armed conflict with Russia. In this respect writer Associated Press columnist Barry Hutton.
The author believes that “if Kiev cannot make progress on the battlefield with weapons supplied by the West, the allies may be reluctant to send it additional expensive equipment.”
In his material, he talks about the possibilities of an offensive of Ukrainian troops, which will be announced in the coming weeks. In particular, he cites Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznik, who said last week that a counterattack would likely begin in early April.
Hutton reminded that Germany announced that it delivered the promised 18 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine this week. Poland, Canada and Norway also delivered their Leopards. British Challenger tanks also arrived. Reznikov also expressed hope that by April, Western partners will procure at least two German-made Leopard 2 divisions. In addition, six or seven battalions of armored Leopard 1 tanks await.
The journalist also quotes President Volodymyr Zelensky, who admitted his country had no chance of winning without the help of the United States and other Western partners.
Hutton also cites the opinion of Russia expert James Nixey of the London think tank Chatham House, who stressed that it was up to the counterattack not only by Ukraine but by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The risk is high: Ukraine’s defeat will have global consequences. “There will be no such thing as European security as we are used to understanding it,” Nixey said.
The analyst has no doubt that in the coming months Ukraine and Russia will “tear each other apart” in hopes of gaining an edge at the future negotiating table.
Hutton also cites the opinion of Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov, who believes that the Ukrainian army will advance in the direction of Zaporozhye via Ugledar and Melitopol to seize control of the land corridor to the Sea of Azov. Thus, Kiev will be able to cut off Crimea and part of the Kherson region under Moscow’s control from land supplies.
The version that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked in Zaporozhye is not new. It has been regularly mentioned by both Western politicians and foreign publications in recent months. In Kiev, they made it clear that after taking control of the Zaporizhzhya coast of the Sea of u200bu200bAzov, they would be able to attack the Crimean bridge and eventually cut off the supply of the entire peninsula.
Part of the media, citing experts, wrote that all these statements were made precisely to force Kiev to launch a counterattack through the Zaporozhye region. Allegedly, the Ukrainian authorities had indeed considered such an option of attack earlier, but Russia decided to abandon it, since it was already preparing for the defense.
In addition, Western media reported that if the attack failed, Kiev could be deprived of support and forced to the negotiating table. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that if Kiev does not show military success, Western positions in support of reconciliation with Russia will be strengthened. And Ukraine can impose a new agreement like Minsk.
The diplomat also said that Kiev does not like its position, both at home and abroad, and that the upcoming offensive is seen as a decisive battle. And in case of failure, not returning the territories, the support of the Western allies will be lost.