“According to an IBSP poll, six months before the parliamentary elections, the United Right can count on the greatest support from voters. Donald Tusk and his party broke the 30 percent mark, but the gap between them and PiS is about 7 percent. The Confederation is on the rise – it already has a double-digit result, while the PSL result certainly won’t impress Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.
According to an IBSP poll, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party would easily win parliamentary elections today, but could not count on an independent majority.
PiS wins, but without independent governments
If the election were held next Sunday, 37.89 percent would vote for Law and Justice. voters. Compared to the February survey by the same laboratory, this is an increase of more than 3 percentage points.
Donald Tusk’s party can count on the support of 30.65 percent. For example, her support fell by 3.26 compared to the previous month’s poll.
A very good result was achieved by Konfederacja, which is clearly on an upward trend and has stabilized in third position. 10 percent of the respondents are in favor of this.
Below the podium were Szymona Hołownia’s Poland 2050 and Nowa Lewica, with 8.44% and 8.44% respectively. and 7.67 percent. to vote.
The least cause for satisfaction is the Polish People’s Party, for which only 3.26 percent cast their vote. of the Polish electorate. This result would not favor the Boer Party to participate in the next term’s Sejm.
The Non-Party and Self-Government Movement, which scored 2.13, also cannot count on entering the Sejm alone.
PiS and the Confederation Doomed to Each Other?
A quick conversion of the percentage results to seats using the d’Hondt method indicates that the seat distribution in the 10th term Sejm could look like this: PiS – 213 KO – 151, Confederation – 41, Poland 2050 – 28, Left – 26. Plus, of course, a place for the German minority.
The IBSP survey leaves no illusions: the most convenient solution for those in power after winning the election would be to persuade the Confederacy to join the governing coalition. Such an alliance would give the Polish right a comfortable lead of more than 250 seats. The question is how realistic this scenario is and whether a stable coalition of more than 250 seats would not be too shaken by instability within the government itself?
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Source: wPolityce