“In fact, it is the PO’s persuasiveness that takes the form of such a strategy of intimidation that works against it. If you want to force someone to do something, to frighten, to hurt, it causes completely opposite reactions. And a few days ago, Donald Tusk, on whose grounds it is not known, argued that smaller parties should not enter parliament. These are such discouraging factors,” says a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Sciences, Prof. Hendrik Domanski.
Will the opposition manage to draw up a joint list?
Prof Hendrik Domanski: There are no indications that there will be a joint list, as the objections of potential Civic Platform coalition partners to such a model have not changed, likely leading to a single cabinet in which Donald Tusk becomes Prime Minister and power would in principle be with the Civic Platform because it would most likely receive the most votes from the opposition parties. That’s first.
Second: still, at least in my opinion, the three parties that would be part of the coalition care less about defeating PiS than about creating such an artificial, abstract, programless, highly diverse, internally heterogeneous bloc which acquires subjectivity and causes potential voters, Poles who would support these parties, to have no one to support.
Because when such a united bloc is created, people actually stop thinking of the political system as a complete system based on the functioning of political parties in a democracy, groups fighting and competing with each other. Specific parties representing individual social groups, for example: PSL is seen as representing peasants and the Polish countryside, or those who have been supporters of the Hołownia movement until now, and actually opponents of PO.
Nothing has changed here, the opposition parties are not interested in beating PiS at all costs to unite. Only Civic Platform does this.
And does she fail to convince the leaders of the other groups?
In fact, it is the PO’s persuasiveness that takes the form of such a strategy of intimidation that works against it. If you want to force someone to do something, to frighten, to hurt, it causes completely opposite reactions. And a few days ago, Donald Tusk, on whose grounds it is not known, argued that smaller parties should not enter parliament. These are such discouragements.
What would such a government look like? Would he have a chance to survive?
Here you can basically repeat the same warnings as for creating a common list. Power would then be in the hands of the Civic Platform.
What benefits would the left, PSL, Poland 2050 have if they joined such a government? The filling of certain posts of ministers, state secretaries and other lucrative positions is of course taken into account. However, with the caveat or prediction that it may take a relatively short time, the PO will do everything it can to subdue these coalition partners within the government as well.
This advantage of filling lucrative positions related to power probably seems illusory to the leaders of these other parties.
What about the Confederacy? Preferably not on a joint list or in a possible government of the current opposition parties, but there is increasing speculation about a possible coalition with PiS. Is such a scenario possible?
It has even been said that such a scenario cannot be ruled out and if PiS does not get as many votes as it needs to gain a majority in the Sejm to govern itself, it will be forced to find a coalition partner.
However, winning a coalition partner on the side of the PSL seems more likely as there were more voices willing to join such a coalition – eg Minister Marek Sawicki.
Confederation is a much more diverse formation, so it’s a last resort. If PiS didn’t win an independent majority, it seems PSL would suffice. Also because it is better to have one coalition partner than potential two.
Where could Law and Justice look for an opportunity to win today? In which electorate, in which social groups, in which proposals?
The electorate is unchanged since 2015 – a clear over-representation among farmers, retirees, pensioners, the unemployed and to some extent among skilled and unskilled workers. Nothing will change here.
Does it help Civic Platform and its authorities in any way by emphasizing that the PiS voters include the groups you mentioned, a rather disrespectful attitude not so much to the party itself as to the voters?
The opposition believes this may help, in that when such information is thrown into the social consciousness, it’s not worth voting for PiS. If he is voted for by uneducated people, from small towns and generally “stupid”, “ignorant of politics, democracy”, then it would be a shame to vote for PiS. You are not allowed to talk about voting or voting for PO or any other opposition party.
That’s why it pays to vote for PO and talk about it publicly at the same time. The platform is counting on it and will repeat it until the elections. Although it is also risky and can discourage people from joining PO, because such things are not said, because it is inappropriate, in bad taste.
Can the PO understand that such a disrespectful attitude will do her little good?
She’s very capable, but she can’t afford anything else. She knows it’s hard for her to compete with PiS and she should make other arguments against him – that is, present a program she can’t prepare. The PO and Donald Tusk have no choice but to try to refer to such moral, discrediting connotations.
While the PO hasn’t presented a specific program beyond a few loosely tossed proposals, it’s something that could somehow appeal to voters: all these announcements of “accounting” for PiS members or removing them from the institutions . But will it be enough to consolidate Poles around the opposition?
They count on that and only the most ardent supporters of the PO think that way, and they don’t even need to be convinced that the presidents should be expelled from the institution and PiS politicians should be jailed. Others are rather discouraged, because people don’t like such announcements: that someone will be put in prison for being a politician. Such things are not done. The platform cannot. Even if she comes to power, there will still be supposedly independent courts in Poland.
It would seem that such announcements can only worsen the atmosphere in Poland, stir up emotions even more, make Poles quarrel?
Yes, but I think the PO is probably counting on it a little bit not to lose this electorate. This would be a strategy to deepen these conflicts by appealing to moral connotations. Perhaps the PO, expecting to lose the election anyway, is at least trying to keep the electorate it has.
Thank you very much for the interview.
Size: Joanna Jaszczuk
Source: wPolityce