An investigation conducted by the Kantar Public studio was published in “Gazeta Wyborcza”. It presents the distribution of seats for individual parties depending on the variant of the start of the opposition formations. The conclusion is in line with what the editors of “GW” have long postulated – the opposition only wins if one list is assumed. However, the way the survey results are presented, hiding important data, raises many questions and ambiguities. Interestingly, many commentators are also skeptical, and it’s hard to suspect they sympathize with PiS.
This “poll” shows panic in the PO. Tusk’s return failed and they know it. Tusk tries to blame the leaders of other parties for the failure. Except they also have research and they know that to quote the classic: this skull won’t smile again. @pisorgpl will win. #FuturePoland will win
It will remain a civilian secret why 4 variants of the Opposition start were explored in the #poll, but the most likely one was omitted, ie KO apart, Links apart, PSL and PL2050 together. This greatly undermines the credibility of the research. (PS @__Lewica does not exclude one list).
That was a nice poll.
We all expected this Wyborcza poll to be funny, but no one said it would be this funny. The art of twisting them. 19 percent Association of Republicans
so-called a citizen survey, which are in fact four separate surveys compared against each other, does not make sense from a methodological point of view. And tormenting one list of some media is getting more and more distasteful, boring and non-substantive.
They took 90,000 from people. PLN for the survey, and did not ask respondents about the most realistic variant today, which is 3 opposition lists (KO, Lewica and PSL + P2050). Congratulations to the donors
Let’s lower the veil of silence on the “civic” poll. I understand the need to mobilize opposition voters and foster belief in victory, but it needs to be done with a little more finesse.
So there has been talk for several days of publishing a “citizen” poll, so as not to finally publish the results of the poll, but to calculate the number of seats using Mr Machowski’s dubious own method? I’m sorry, but this is some kind of joke.
But one thing about all this is fundamental. Since it was a citizen survey, we are asking for raw data available in an open repository. Let everyone check on their own computer whether one list is useful.
@gazeta_wyborcza’s poll was created for a predetermined thesis – about the bias below @pio_tru. It’s just a pity that PLN 90,000 from citizens really could have been put to better use than in this political game…
Citizen survey (variant A). Even if @newPSL doesn’t cross the threshold, it will get support in constituencies. Counting the support among the strong (which I always use) without the PSL (as Machowski did) is, to say the least, stretching reality.
Today’s “survey” in @gazeta_wyborcza finally compromises months of grinding on the topic of one list. And it’s great because the longer it takes, the better PiS’s chances for a third PiS term. Thanks @JaroslawKurski! And now let’s move on to the stage of the actual election campaign.
Poll results for “Gazeta Wyborcza”
The democratic opposition has only one option to govern after the autumn elections. That is the result of a large survey funded by citizens, Gazeta Wyborcza reports Monday.
“GW” reports that the Long Table Forum Foundation has decided to find out which variant would be optimal for the democratic opposition if elections were held today. The Foundation has collected nearly 90,000. PLN for a survey conducted by Kantar Public. 4,000 people were interviewed. respondents, but separately for different variants.
The survey shows that turnout fluctuates between 57.2 and 60.3 percent. depending on the variant we are investigating.
Variant A assumes separate lists of KO, Lewicy, Polski 2050 and PSL. 30.2% would then vote for KO. respondents (149 seats), for the left – 11.8 percent. (46 seats), Poland 2050 and PSL – 8.9 percent. (30 seats). In total they will have 225 seats.
35.8 percent would vote for PiS. respondents (180 seats), and the Confederation – 13.4 percent. (55 seats). 235 seats in total. It is this coalition that has an absolute parliamentary majority.
Variant B consists of two opposition blocs: KO and Lewica and Polska 2050 and PSL. Here, PiS has 201 seats (40.8 percent of support), Confederation – 51 (13.3 percent), which is a total of 252 seats in the Sejm.
In this variant, 32.7 percent would vote for KO and the left. respondents (157 seats), and for Poland 2050 and PSL 13.1 percent. (51 seats).
Variant C also includes two opposition lists: the KO block, Poland 2050 and PSL, and the Left, which goes separately. Here PiS has 183 seats (37.5 percent of the support), Konfederacja – 62 (15.3 percent), a total of 245 and also a certain majority.
In this variant, 36.7 percent would vote for KO, Poland 2050 and PSL. respondents (178 seats), and for the left – 10.5 percent. (37 seats).
Variant D is based on a joint list of KO, Links, Poland 2050 and PSL. Only then can Donald Tusk, Szymon Hołownia, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Włodzimierz Czarzasty and Robert Biedroń count on a majority in the Sejm – 245 seats (50.9 percent support).
In such a situation, PiS would have 167 seats (36.1 percent of support), and Confederation – 48 (13.1 percent). Total 215 seats.
The survey was conducted by Kantar Public on March 1-13 this year. commissioned by the Long Table Foundation.
tkwl/PAP/Twitter
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Source: wPolityce