According to 32 percent of respondents, each of the opposition parties must participate separately in the elections. That’s 5 points. percent more than in October last year – results of the February CBOS survey. 46% are in favor of a joint start. opposition supporters; last fall it was 59 percent.
On the scale of all eligible voters, the idea of opposition groups running together in elections has relatively few supporters
— CBOS assessed in commentary on this study submitted to PAP on Thursday.
In February, 21 percent of respondents voted for opposition parties and groups to be part of one common bloc. investigated. According to 13 percent – should start in two blocks, while according to 6 percent it is – in three or more blocks. 32% of voters voted for each party to start separately. subjects; 29 percent had no opinion.
Such survey results, according to CBOS, show that, compared to last October’s survey, support for the idea of an agreement between the opposition and joint participation in the elections has lost popularity among all respondents.
CBOS recalled that then – in the previous survey – 29 percent were in favor of starting the opposition within one common bloc. interrogated; 15% favored starting in two blocks; behind the start within three or more blocks 5 percent. In contrast, 27% favored an independent start of each opposition party. polled, and 24 percent had no opinion.
PiS supporters have a major influence on the results of all respondents. Among supporters of this party, according to the current CBOS poll, 50 percent are in favor of the opposition parties operating separately. 30 percent of supporters of the ruling camp have no opinion on it. The concepts of a joint opposition start, two blocs or at least three blocs have little support among PiS supporters – 8.7 and 5 percent respectively.
According to CBOS, “The past few months have led to a decline in popularity – or perhaps it should be said – a decline in confidence in the likelihood of the idea of a joint start in the elections of opposition groups.”
Moreover, this decrease does not only concern the total number of voters, but (…) the growing doubts about the possibility of uniting the opposition are mainly associated with voters who identify with this political option
– we read in the commentary on the study.
Admittedly – as stated – “among the declared supporters of the opposition, those in favor of unification and the establishment of a joint or joint electoral bloc by the opposition groups certainly prevail.” 46% of the opposition voted for a joint start. her supporters, 27 percent. was in two blocks before the start, 8 percent. after the start of at least three blocks 10 percent. for a separate start of each party, 9 percent. had no opinion.
These results have changed since last October’s survey. Then 59 percent supported one list. opposition supporters, 28 percent for starting in two blocs, 2 percent for starting three or more blocs, 8 percent for starting each party separately, and 3 percent. they had no opinion.
Election statements in the situation of different coalition variants
CBOS also asked for election statements for various coalition variants. In the situation of a coalition of four opposition groups KO, Poland 2050, the Left and the Polish-PSL Coalition, the expected results would be as follows: 35.3 percent. of respondents stated support for PiS, 32.6 percent. for the broad opposition coalition 7 percent. for the Confederacy.
Another variant considered was a separate start from the left. Then 34.6 percent. would vote for PiS, 28.7 percent. for a coalition of three opposition groups 7.6 percent. to the Confederacy, and 4.8 percent. to the left.
In the case of a KO coalition with PSL-Polish coalition, the results would be as follows: PiS – 35.3 percent, KO-PSL coalition – 22.3 percent, Confederation – 7 percent, Poland 2050 – 6.7 percent , Left – 4.5 percent
The last variant that was considered in the study was the Poland 2050 and PSL-Koalicja Polska coalition.
This is the only version of the opposition coalition in which the so-called bonus for reunification, because the size of support for the political bloc connecting Poland 2050 with the PSL-Polish Coalition is 2.6 points higher than percent is higher than the sum of the votes cast for each party separately
– wrote CBOS.
In this settlement, 34.8 percent voted for PiS. respondents, KO – 19 percent, Coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL-Koalicja Polska – 11.7 percent, Confederation – 7.5 percent and Left – 4.1 percent.
CBOS pointed out that “at the same time, the electoral threshold should not be forgotten, around which the ratings of self-starting left fluctuate in our research.”
If this grouping failed to present its deputies to the Sejm, the situation of the opposition in the new parliament, even with a better overall result, could look worse than in the case of a weaker overall result. united opposition
– indicated.
According to CBOS, “at the current stage of the campaign for the autumn parliamentary elections, a large proportion of respondents announcing their sure participation in the elections, especially those who declare themselves in favor of opposition parties, are rather lost when it comes to to possible coalition preferences.”
The study was conducted as part of the mixed-mode procedure on a representative sample of adult residents of Poland drawn from the PESEL registry. This year’s survey took place from 6 to 19 February. on a sample of 982 people.
tkwl/PAP
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Source: wPolityce