In a few days the calendar spring will start. Although the election campaign has not officially started yet, it is slowly getting underway. Now is a good time to try to assess who won the winter politically.
The end of inflationary fuel
However, I will start with today’s information on inflation. This one is bittersweet. On the one hand, it was a record 18.4% yoy in February, but on the other hand, experts say it will decline from now on. On the first day of March, Deputy Finance Minister Piotr Patkowski told Polsat News that disinflation had begun. It is worth placing it alongside the statements of opposition politicians, in this case with the words of Donald Tusk, who said at the beginning of November that “there is no reason to designate Poland as the only country in the EU where it is today the day it is said that inflation will still be has been growing for many months. In this case, it turned out that Tusk’s “many months” is actually less than four months. Although today the PO is still trying to beat the ruling party with this inflationary club , it won’t get very far on this fuel, maybe next month the opposition won’t travel a mile on it.
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Winter would be the end of PiS
Just as it didn’t get very far with coal, which would run out, and the Poles would die of the cold at home. Apart from the fact that winter this year was quite nice, and not only for Poland, but considering the war and many countries (including Poland) breaking with the Russian raw material, also for all of Europe, the government simply said this coal “supplied he.” Not only was the raw material supplied, but the government created a subsidy mechanism that at least partially compensated for the high prices. If there was no such coal anywhere, it must have been individual cases on a national scale. If it were otherwise, the opposition would undoubtedly not stop “heating up” this topic so quickly.
And yet winter was (again) the end of President Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp. But those dreams were gone in… December! As reported by Wirtualna Polska, the leader of the PO would admit in a closed meeting that he was simply wrong about coal.
The government, despite many stumbling blocks, finally delivered coal. In addition, winter proves to be extremely kind to PiS. Today hardly anyone talks about the shortage of coal and other fuels, and Tusk himself admitted in a private meeting with journalists in December that “the question of coal will not be so important”. In short: he contradicted his own predictions from September last year
– wrote Michał Wróblewski from the Polish army.
But the situation in Europe did not help the opposition build a narrative about the impending catastrophe. And while inflation in Poland did indeed break new records, interest rates rose, the situation was (and still is) uninteresting for many of our European partners as well. Here are today’s two examples:
In Sweden, food prices have risen by 21 percent in the past year, and prices of eggs, milk and butter by more than 30 percent. This is the largest annual price increase of basic products since the 1950s, the Swedish Statistical Office (SCB) reported on Wednesday.
– reported the Polish news agency.
In the UK, supermarkets have introduced a limit of three tomatoes per customer. You can buy a maximum of two bell peppers in the Netherlands. In Germany, customers complain about the prices of cucumbers, while in Spain, farmers patrol the fields at night against fruit and vegetable thieves. In Slovakia there is a lot of talk about the “onion crisis”
– we read in another telegram sent by PAP.
Do Law and Justice also regulate in these countries? Only the most staunch supporters of the opposition can believe the spells falling from the lips of politicians that it is enough to remove PiS from power and everything will return to the pre-2015 situation. But how would that happen? Tusk has so far not presented any recipes to improve the situation of the Poles. We will only know this one when the opposition manages to defeat PiS. Poles should therefore simply buy a pig in a poke.
But if we take the opposition’s narrative of Poland’s catastrophic economic plight seriously, it’s hard not to question whether cuts should be made to clean up this alleged PiS mess. And if so, where to look for savings? In social programs that Tusk promised not to touch? When closing CPK-like projects? There are many questions, but it is difficult to get an answer from the PO, the main opposition party. Perhaps one of its leaders will answer Grzegorz Sroczyński’s five questions, which he put to the opposition. This thread is up there.
Which opposition?
But you also have to ask yourself: which opposition would take over after Kaczyński? The divided, arguing, reactive and slow? Today we know that Tusk failed at the idea of uniting the opposition on one list. He failed. However, this does not preclude that if PiS fails to gain enough seats to govern alone, the opposition cannot form a majority government. But what will the government from Zandberg to Kosiniak-Kamysz offer the Poles? And even if the left will not be necessary to create a majority, because Tusk gets along well with Hołownia and the peasants, will the three-circle government be stable? What will he do first? Revenge on the “pisowcem” or a recovery of the supposedly ruined economy? How will Tusk and Hołownia cooperate in such a government?
The opposition has a lot going for it, because the government had a lot more problems than just coal or inflation and its quotes are still high and above all stable. And the prospect of attracting voters who have moved away from the United Right but are still willing to vote for it is real and can only make them better.
Ukraine aid
And finally about the war. It is really difficult to understand the purpose of all the efforts to turn the United Right into a pro-Russian milieu, which would also consider the partition of Ukraine. To whom was this absurd message addressed? What benefits should it bring to the platform? Was it only intended to harm the government? But we are not even talking about damage to our internal political plot, but damage to the international arena, at a time when a beastly war is taking place beyond our eastern border. It’s more than stupidity.
The government on the war in Ukraine is doing an exemplary job. It is largely thanks to Poland that Leopard tanks are delivered to Ukraine (several pieces have already arrived there), and soon, as everything indicates, MiG-29 fighters too. Not only experts in Poland, but also in the world write about the important role Poland played in this war period. This is simply undeniable. Just like the fact that the Polish army is getting stronger thanks to the purchase of modern equipment. But not alone.
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Winter belongs to Kaczynski
All this does not mean that the government does not face serious challenges. That he has no internal problems. And that, in general, everything is great. It’s not.
The first thing that comes to mind is the funds from KPO, the receipt of which, in principle, is not certain. Perhaps it will be, as some United Right politicians claim, that the issue will not be resolved until the election. And if so, it will certainly be a toss-up during the election campaign. It remains an open question whether the government will present a coherent and convincing vision for the third term in the coming months. Although it is almost clear that the upcoming campaign will be based on extreme emotions and will be very brutal, I am convinced that it will be more difficult than easier not to propose to Polish women for the next four years.
The calendar spring will start in five days. And although anything is possible in politics, today it can be said that Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp won politically this winter, although it would fall into a political grave. If I had to compare those few months to a football game, I would say it was an ugly game, full of fouls and play in midfield. Target situations, while there were, were few. Typical tie. But it was the United Right camp that scored the winning goal. Winter belongs to Kaczynski.
Source: wPolityce