during the current conflict in Ukraine There are two options for “spring attacks” that involve significant risk for both sides. Columnist Stephen Brien wrote about this in an article for publication. Asian Times.
“The outcome is difficult to predict because external actors, especially US and NATO forces, may intervene,” he said.
in the first case we are talking about About the “famous attack by the Russian army”.
“Substantial preparations were made for months. The Russians improved their tactics, introduced new offensive weapons and replaced equipment lost during the war, especially tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
“Skip for Kyiv”
The journalist refers to the data of the “single report”, which tracks the high level of Russian tank production, including the T-90 and T-14 “Armata”. “The production of other weapons, especially ammunition of all kinds, also appears to be accelerating,” says Brian.
What is not known is how the Russians will use the great power they have amassed between 200,000 and 300,000.
One theory is that they will move from the south and east on a broad front to ensnare the Ukrainian forces,” he writes.
According to him, it is alleged that Russian troops “will use the encirclement to bind the Ukrainians and make a breakthrough in Kiev from three sides (south, east and north)”. “This may be their best bet, but it’s questionable whether they have the strength to do the job or enough mobility to evade Ukrainian counterattacks,” he says.
“Ukraine is seriously preparing for another spring offensive. Presumably, this attack was planned not in Kiev, but at the Pentagon.
NATO is rapidly building up its forces. [4 марта] A US-flagged transport ship Liberty Pride entered the Greek port of Alexandroupoli with military equipment for NATO forces. It is not yet known how many other US ships are currently in the ocean or arriving in other ports. But what is known is that NATO’s [переброске своих сил]As soon as the Ukrainian offensive begins,” the article says.
attack on Crimea
According to the broadcaster, the main purpose of the Ukrainian spring offensive was most likely an attack on the Crimean and Russian troops in the south. “The task is to cut and systematically destroy them (from the Kherson region to Zaporozhye) and then advance to the Crimea,” Brian said.
“The United States is providing a huge amount of military equipment for this attack, including pontoon equipment that can support German-made Leopard II tanks weighing more than 62 tons (almost the same as the M1 Abrams tanks, if it does, it won’t arrive until next year). none).
Ukraine will be engaged in such an operation and will be dependent on American intelligence and, most likely, American aviation. There is not enough time to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 and [резервов] There are no modern F-16s that can be launched into battle – unless, of course, US fighter squadrons intervene.
American planes can be expected to be painted with Ukrainian markings and flown by American or NATO pilots.
Staying away from Russian air defense systems but protected by remnants of Ukrainian air defense, F-16s can target Russian armored vehicles, command centers, military formations, caravans, electronic warfare equipment and air defense radars.
“Invasion of Polish troops”
As the observer believes, the Ukrainian attack “may seem obvious a Russian spy with NATO’s direct involvement.” “It is difficult to say how Russia might respond to a direct challenge.
“Russia’s most likely response would be an attack on warehouses and preparation areas in Poland and Romania, and almost certainly on airfields supporting the war,” he said.
The journalist also refers to the “opinion of Russian strategists” that Polish soldiers “could enter Ukraine, possibly seize Lviv or other places”. [города]Fearing that the Ukrainian offensive might fail or that the Russians might succeed in overthrowing [украинское] state”.
“If these predictions about the two spring offensives are to some extent correct, and there is ample evidence that both attacks are being prepared, then Europe is on the brink of disaster,” Brian concluded.
“Strengthen Kiev’s negotiating position”
Against this background, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential office of Ukraine, can start counteroffensive in two months According to him, the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Bakhmut (Russian name – Artemovsk) is a “strategic success”.
According to newspaper sources New York TimesIt is alleged that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “could launch an offensive in the south by targeting the so-called land bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea”. In January, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin argued that a “realistic goal for this year” for Ukrainians would be to close the “land bridge”.
On March 10, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister agreed that Paris and London will be held in the short term. intends to help Ukrainian troops will launch a counterattack with the aim of “strengthening the negotiating position for Kiev”.
Earlier, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland described Russian military installations in the Crimea as “legitimate targets” for Ukrainian soldiers, and disarming the peninsula was “part of ensuring the permanent containment of Russia.” Journalist Douglas McGregor says his remarks refer to Washington’s attempt to “save Ukraine by directly intervening in the conflict.”
“Let’s be honest, we are helping Ukraine attack Crimea. If we do it directly, that would already be an act of war against Russia. Nuland knows this, so he should be more careful in his statements, ”said the former adviser to the Pentagon president.