What is the key to the United Right’s victory and a third term? In an interview with the weekly magazine “Sieci”, Ryszard Czarnecki says very concisely: “You have to run a good campaign and make a very small number of mistakes.” But it’s not everything. According to the PiS MEP, “it is also not worth closing coalition opportunities”. The conversation immediately mentions that the Confederation could become a PiS coalition partner. But only?
“Always Have a Plan B”
Let’s stick with the Confederacy for a moment. A very diverse and recently conflicted environment. And it seems that the multiplicity of views has sunk the Confederacy, which has been drifting for a long time, unable to move in any particular direction. According to Czarnecki, conflicts in the Confederation can paradoxically be conducive to PiS’s future cooperation with this environment.
The Confederacy is an internally diverse grouping. There are or have been politicians with whom we never get along, there are those with whom we can talk
emphasizes the MEP.
When asked if he thinks the Confederacy will fall apart, he replies:
I do not think so. I rather read these changes as a struggle for control of this formation. And this is what can create a better atmosphere for possible cooperation between PiS and the Confederation, even in certain areas in parliament. I’d like to point out that Robert Winnicki even recently announced some terms for PiS.
And adds:
You should always have a plan B.
And indeed, on the face of it, it seems that PiS voters, as well as the party itself, are closest to the nationalists of the Confederacy. However, I do not expect any political statements on this issue in the near future. Today, Nowogrodzka is still playing for the top prize, which in this case is the third independent term. The Confederacy itself probably does not know what it wants from itself and in which direction it is heading. It’s just going to crystallize. If statements appear at all, they will be just before the elections, but most likely only afterwards, when it will become clear whether Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp can govern independently or will have to look for additional coalition partners.
READ MORE: Ryszard Czarnecki in “Sieci” weekly: There’s a plan A, there’s a plan B. “What opposition, goals like that. Shake-hand race with Biden”
But do PiS’s coalition capabilities end there? Not in my opinion, although at first glance it seems that the Kaczyński camp does not have these capabilities.
“Patience, Mr. President, patience.”
If not with part of the current Confederacy, then with the peasants. And it should be emphasized here that the subject of the PiS-PSL coalition has been present for almost the entire second term of the United Right. We heard about it most often when it seemed that Solidarna Polska was packing all its bags and saying goodbye to the United Right. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s peasants would replace the Ziobrists. However, that never happened. However, it is worth recalling an interesting remark by President Kaczyński, addressed to the leader of the PSL, as it was then interpreted. Let’s go back to December 2020. There was a debate about the motion to sack Jarosław Kaczyński as Deputy Prime Minister of Security. The PSL leader then accused the PiS president of “listening to radicals who want to get Poland out of the European Union”.
We must reject this voice of radicals, put them aside and listen to Poles who want to be in the European Union, who want to be a strong nation in the European Union
thundered Kosiniak-Kamysz from the stage of the Sejm.
When the then Deputy Prime Minister for Security spoke, interesting words were heard from the parliamentary podium:
The speeches I heard here were different. Some contain a particular political proposition. A bit premature and indicative of some inexperience on the part of the one who spoke in a slightly more civilized manner
Kaczynski said. And looking at Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, he said: “Patience, Mr. President, Patience”.
Interestingly, a week before this debate on RMF FM, Marek Sawicki admitted that he had talks on behalf of Kosiniak-Kamysz with “several PiS politicians to come to an agreement on these two issues and also on the EU issue”. What were the problems then? About the start of the EU summit, where solutions related to the EU budget and the veto announced by Poland and Hungary, as well as compromise proposals were discussed. However, Sawicki pointed out on TOK FM two days later that PSL “is not choosing to join a PiS coalition”.
We know PiS perfectly from its inception and we know what it does with coalition partners
he concluded.
Today the situation has changed a bit. Kosiniak-Kamysz formed an alliance with Szymon Hołownia and there are many indications that both parties are going to the elections together, although nothing has been decided yet. However, in the media you can read about conversations between PiS politicians and farmers.
Kosiniak-Kamysz Prime Minister of Kaczyński?
And here I will put forward a rather bold statement, although it has already appeared in the public space once in 2019. Well, I believe that in a situation where PiS wins the election, but doesn’t get enough seats to form a majority government, opposition parties, I’m thinking here primarily PSL and maybe part of the future Poland of 2050, should consider.. a coalition with PiS.
Well, the offer of the Kaczyński camp, which will have a choice: to give up power or to share it widely, may decide to choose the latter. And it may be that Nowogrodzka’s offer presented to the coalition partners will be much more advantageous than Donald Tusk’s.
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz as Prime Minister of Jarosław Kaczyński? I don’t see a problem. Yes, it sounds like political fiction, but a similar suggestion was made in 2019 by… Katarzyna Kolenda-Zaleska.
Let’s remind. It’s 2019. The European Parliament elections are approaching. Grzegorz Schetyna struggles to put together the European coalition. Popular people are hesitant to participate in this bizarre experiment. It is also not known in what composition they will start in the next parliamentary elections. What does the TVN journalist write in “Gazeta Wyborcza”?
If PiS has difficulty finding a coalition partner after the parliamentary elections, it may look to the farmers’ party. And in the public space, there is still a myth about PSL as a rotating party that can get along with anyone for electoral loot. Given the past few years, the myth is completely false. (…) This is largely due to Kosiniak-Kamysz and his resistance to anti-democratic temptations
Kolenda-Zaleska wrote a few years ago.
The problem is how long the president will be able to curb his activists’ appetites. Maybe they already sensed that PiS would be more merciful to them after the election and want to share power? (…) He may even offer Kosiniak-Kamysz a high position. Will he give up the prime minister? In a critical situation – why not?
the publicist wondered.
READ MORE: Kolenda-Zaleska pushes the People’s Party into Schetyna’s arms: “The future of politics in Poland depends on the choice of PSL”
Ladies and gentlemen, please understand me correctly, as such a body of journalism, which is the only one that correctly addresses Donald Tusk, that is, “Mr. sign below.
I believe that by sitting down with President Kaczyński, who will need extra sabers to form a government, the peasants – alone or together with Hołownia – can get a much bigger piece of the power pie than they would from Tusk can get. And this, and not the “values” they like to shout about at demonstrations, is what matters to politicians. Tusk will not agree that the Prime Minister is someone outside the PO. And the politicians of this party talk openly about it: the head of government is appointed by the largest party.
Someone will ask, what about the voters? If it were possible to “somehow explain” the increase in the retirement age, then such a coalition for the “good of Poland” will certainly be explained. WHERE?
Hołownia has already helped Kaczyński
And what about Szymon Hołownia? And here I will write something that will surely make Tomasz Lis write about “Kałownia” on Twitter several times. Well, I would like to remind you that the leader of Poland 2050 … Kaczyński has already helped more than once in the past. Two, actually three things.
The first: Hołownia did not support Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of Rafał Trzaskowski’s presidential election. At least he didn’t do it right away.
The second point, which is actually related to the third: MPs from Hołownia voted against the amendment of the Supreme Court law, which fooled the PO and the rest of the opposition. This made Lisa, “GW” and everyone else very angry. And finally, by refusing to agree to a single list, Hołownia weakens politically Tusk, who failed to unite the opposition, and yet he came back precisely to accomplish this and defeat Kaczyński.
And let’s not kid ourselves, and Hołownia knows it too, it would be a matter of time if the PO, which is in the future government in a coalition with Poland 2050, started to bite it and turn its deputies towards it would lure. Wouldn’t PiS do that? Probably yes, but the risk of such a more or less formal coalition breaking up and relinquishing power could effectively cripple such moves on the part of Nowogrodzka.
It is worth noting that part of Hołownia’s electorate consists of people who do not like to watch Donald Tusk.
“They are rational people”
Finally, let’s go back to the interview Ryszard Terlecki, deputy chairman of the Sejm, gave to the weekly magazine “Sieci” at the end of last year. There are interesting words about “post-communist left”. When asked if a joint government of PiS and the left is even conceivable, Terlecki replied:
We have good social relations with the old left, the post-communist. These are rational people, they like our social agenda and they don’t like the idiosyncrasies of this new left. But there is also a wing of Biedroń, which is not on the way.
READ MORE: Ryszard Terlecki in an interview with “Sieci”: Donald Tusk has a big problem that weakens him greatly. “Today it seems that he has no chance”
This alliance seems the least likely. But wouldn’t any “rational post-communist” be tempted to take a good stand that Tusk couldn’t offer him?
Yes, I am aware that many of you will say that this is political fiction. However, politicians did not see such things. Because didn’t Monika Pawłowska end up in the Sejm via the lists of the left to end up in Law and Justice? Didn’t Paweł Kukiz first talk about the farmers as a “criminal group” only to apologize later and go to the elections together? And didn’t MPs Joanna Mucha and Hanna Gill-Piatek, both rather left-wing, join the rather conservative Hołownia? Not to mention the latest exotic alliance to appear on our political scene, which is the merger of AgroUnion with the Agreement. These are just a few examples and you could probably multiply them for hours. Anyway, let me remind you that according to Tomasz Lis and company, anyone not with Tusk is an employee of Kaczyński. And if you don’t want to be on one list with Tusk, but there are quite a few…
In total. Yes, PiS should have a plan B in case it turns out to miss the seats to form a majority government post-election. And yes, I believe PiS’s coalition options are much broader than just an alliance with the Confederacy, which could make governing even more difficult than with the peasants.
One thing I know for sure: interesting months ahead.
Source: wPolityce