We sometimes wonder what the situation of Ukraine, Poland and all of Europe would look like after February 24, 2022, if the reins in Warsaw were in the same hands as in 2010-2015, when the Civic Platform was in full power. Would we have supplied the Ukrainians with ammunition before the outbreak of war (as was the case a year ago)? Would we form a series of coalitions on security, arms supplies, sanctions against Russia, etc.? Would we also be a leader in military aid (calculated in relation to the economic capabilities of individual countries) for the attacked state? Or would we sit back and wait for decisions to be made (or not) in Berlin and Paris?
I have my own, pretty obvious assessment here. But we’ll never know if it’s true. However, we can try to analyze the current statements of people who were removed from power eight years ago, compare them with the decisions and attitudes of their successors, and find out which approach is more beneficial from the point of view of Poland’s security.
The direction of our security policy is interpreted in an interview with President Andrzej Duda in the latest issue of the weekly “Sieci”. In it, the head of state says:
(…) Alliances should support us, not be the only cover. From my point of view, as President and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, it is paramount that we can defend ourselves and strengthen the functioning of NATO. (…) We don’t just want to be a recipient of collateral, based on art. 5 of the NATO treaty, assuming that if someone attacks us, others will come to our rescue. We also want to be a security provider and we are. Our planes monitor the airspace over the Baltic states, they used to do the same over Iceland. In addition, if our military is so well equipped, as evidenced by the contracts concluded in recent years, we are on a completely different level.
Why do we have such power?
To ensure your safety. We have such a geopolitical position and we have such a historical experience that we know one thing: if we want to survive here, we have to be strong. The history of the last 250 years is a history of continuous struggle to get Poland back. Free, sovereign, independent. I believe we will be so strong that it will not be profitable for anyone to attack us.
And another quote about the possibility of ending the war at the negotiating table:
I told President Biden very clearly: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, that has to be at the table. It’s not enough that it’s on the table, on the map. A serious representative of the warring state, preferably President Zelensky, must sit at the negotiating table. He must negotiate possible terms, be it peace or a truce. With full responsibility for their country’s affairs, as well as for the international order.
How different is this position from that of 2014, when Sikorski threatened the Ukrainian pro-independence opposition and forced them to sign a deal with the Kremlin’s puppet Yanukovych: “either you sign it or you all die.”
Let’s go back to the present and what former First Citizen Bronisław Komorowski tells us today. Burn six stories about Poland becoming the seventh country to provide military aid to the Ukrainians. And burn the stupidity that Joe Biden’s arrival in Poland was just a camouflage for his visit to Kiev. This is in line with Komorowski’s tradition of downplaying Poland’s role simply because it is ruled by its political opponents. Even worse, this aversion translates into a false fostering of European inhibitors, whose attitude is contrary to our interests.
In a December interview in “Wprost,” Komorowski failed to praise our western neighbors:
In general, I noticed a huge, positive change in German and French attitudes towards Russia, Ukraine and their own armaments. A true Copernican revolution took place in Germany in this regard. Germany abandoned the doctrine of state pacifism and began to arm itself. They also provide far-reaching financial and military aid to Ukraine. They want to help Poland.
Speaking of “help,” Komorowski probably meant two Patriot sets. Anyway, this evil Poland wants to arm itself. And also in the wrong way. A few days later, the former president stated in RMF FM:
Is it good that we arm ourselves? Yes. Are we spending money rationally? I do not think so. If some of these purchases had been made five years ago as intended, for example building a missile defense system – I was still announcing the decision to buy Patriots in the US and helicopters in France – if these purchases had been made when made, they would have been considerably cheaper, because now everyone wants to arm themselves and everything is more expensive – that’s one thing. Secondly, there could be more negotiation about the Polish arms industry, the so-called compensation had to be a guarantee.
Detailed compensation negotiations with the US are yet to come, those with Korea have been underway for a long time, as heavy equipment purchased in this country will ultimately be largely produced in Poland. Komorowski refrains from criticizing the government, which is increasing our security at an unprecedented rate.
According to the former president, the haste is a mistake, “because there is no risk of an invasion from Russia in the near future”:
Can you imagine that Russia, which is losing to Ukraine today, will declare war on Poland in a year’s time? Because I can’t imagine. Let’s keep in mind that most of these purchases made today will only have a positive effect in a few years.
How does Komorowski know that Russia is losing this war? A responsible Polish politician cannot make such an assumption and conclude on that basis that we are safe. After all, any serious analyst will tell you today that the outcome of the Russian invasion cannot yet be decided. And if it can end with the success of the Kremlin, the threat to Poland will increase exponentially.
Nor is it known which part of Komorowski’s statement deserves more attention. Should you hurry with the purchase of equipment (since it will reach us in a few years), or not, because we are safe? Logic is hard to find here. So let’s not waste time searching. And let’s see one more argument for folding our hands in thanks for the fact that our hero no longer lives in Krakowskie Przedmieście. This is a man who even today (and specifically on February 22, also in RMF) evaluates the reset of relations between Poland and Russia during the rule of the PO in Poland:
We cannot be professional Russophobes in the world, because this also weakens our position, but we can be the ones who share the Polish experience, not just the Polish fears.
Nothing happened to him in all those years. Nothing.
Even worse, in 2010-2015 the presidential palace was full of such thinking officials. I recall a recent interview in November in “Gazeta Wyborcza” with Prof. Roman Kuźniar, President Komorowski’s advisor for international affairs during his term of office. Kuźniar argued three months ago that there is currently no risk of a war in Europe like the one being waged in Ukraine.
War was more likely before Russia invaded Kiev. I can imagine some offensive actions by the Kremlin against the countries of Central Europe, but not in the form of open aggression. After all, Article Five of NATO is in force, and the Russians know that this principle is not worth testing. (…) We will arm ourselves as if Poland were to invade Russia, but that will not be the case. To defend you need completely different equipment, for example, to defend our sky, which simply does not exist. Just think about it now. We went shopping like children in a toy store, we should have the best of everything, even if it may be completely useless. It is also unknown where we will get the money from, but with a full basket we run to the second store, from the USA to South Korea. It’s a kind of hysteria, and after all, we’ve got Russia out of our minds for a while, so we can think about it, think about it, ask experts.
Poland has money for armaments, primarily because the state budget is twice as large as during the PO-PSL government. And secondly, not 2, but 4 percent. We spend GDP on strengthening the military. Article 5 of the NATO treaty is of little use if the attacked state is not ready to effectively defend itself in the early stages of the conflict. Another thing is to turn a blind eye to the specifics of the Russian wars of the 21st century. Air defense is necessary, but probably every child has learned over the past year that Putin’s soldiers strike in the style of two great wars of the first half of the 20th century. Why are Ukrainians so desperately begging the West for modern tanks? If they had listened to Kuźniar, they would have lost long ago.
Even from the perspective of the four months that have passed since the aforementioned interview, you can see how Kuźniar’s geopolitical analyzes are not worth much:
The power does not take into account the changes. Neither technologically nor geostrategic, moving the site of potential conflict to the Indo-Pacific region, where the US should be more involved than in Europe. Washington’s security strategy, which everyone can read, assumes that Europe should defend itself with less involvement from the United States, because with a weakened Russia it has the strength to do so.
Would he repeat these words today, after Joe Biden’s visit to Warsaw and Kiev? He prefers to forget them.
And now let’s imagine that the commander of the armed forces today is not Andrzej Duda, but Bronisław Komorowski, whose main adviser for international affairs is Roman Kuźniar.
The gulf between their view of the world is like the gulf between the Polish government’s ambitious mission (how justified) to demand compensation from Germany for World War II losses, and Komorowski’s proposal that Germany, for example, open an art gallery in Poland instead. Heaven and earth.
In the past year, Andrzej Duda has emerged as a politician of international rank, joining the strict group of Western leaders who decide the security architecture in the Old Continent. This is a position that his predecessor, who played cabaret scenes in the White House, could not dream of.
I highly recommend the interview with the president of Michał Karnowski and Marcin Wikło for “Sieci”. This is not only a conversation about the war and the backstage of the US president’s visit, but also about domestic politics in the election year and Warsaw’s relations with Brussels.
THE FULL CONVERSATION is available in our PREMIUM zone and in the paper edition of the weekly magazine “Sieci”.
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Source: wPolityce