The specter of the unlimited numbers of the Russian army is a myth; In 2023, Vladimir Putin will face tough choices about how to make up the military’s losses in the war against Ukraine, the American Institute for War Studies (ISW) estimates in the latest analysis.
Analysts remind us that about 260,000 new soldiers are being drafted into the army, which is organized in Russia twice a year.
Demographics are not conducive to Russian conscription
Putin may be forced to consider expanding conscription and enlisting more young people against their will every year. However, this approach does not help demographics: about 800,000 young men come of age in Russia each year. Increasing conscription rates well beyond the 260,000 mandatory conscription threatens not only to make young men unfit for war, but also to pull too many young men out of the nation’s economy
experts point out. They emphasize that while the military needs people, Putin is trying to get the economy into war mode.
Putin prepares Russians for ‘prolonged and painful war’
A US think tank summarizes the Kremlin’s later decisions in the year of the invasion of Ukraine regarding the need to send more troops to the front. He estimates that Putin, who is “clearly preparing the Russians for a protracted and painful war,” has now realized that only the defense ministry can maintain the large mechanized forces needed to fight the war.
It seems Putin was still hesitant to order an additional mobilization that Russian officials were reportedly preparing for early 2023
the ISW notes. He adds that at the same time, Putin has not resumed his efforts to recruit volunteers. Analysts speculate that Putin is worried about how many sacrifices he can inflict on the Russians.
Wagnerians pushed aside
ISW notes that with the arrival of 300,000 reservists (mobilized as a result of the so-called partial mobilization announced in the fall of 2022) to the front, Putin began to give the Ministry of Defense back authority over all Russian troops. For example, on January 11, 2023, he appointed the Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, as the commander of the invasion, and appointed the former commander, General Sergei Surovikin, attached to the mercenaries of the Wagner Group, as his deputy.
According to the Institute of Internal Affairs, the Russian Ministry of Defense has also begun the process of incorporating the 1st and 2nd Corps of the separatist army from the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics into the Russian regular army, removing the existing commanders. It is said that the Ministry is trying to prevent the Wagner Group from receiving “state munitions” and has stopped recruiting prisoners for the Wagner Group as it tries to recruit prisoners itself.
READ ALSO:
— The Kremlin is not making progress at the front. Wallace: They threw Ukraine 97 percent. army. “They suffer similar losses as known from the First World War”
“Russians are dying and will die. Forbes: The death toll has doubled. ‘Second year could bring total death toll to one million’
— The mobilization in Russia did not bring the intended results. Putin is preparing a second wave of conscription for the Russians? The IHO assesses
— A true picture of the Russian mobilization? Angry recruits recorded a video. “They’ve been abandoned, they’re all sick.” VIDEO
rm/PAP
Source: wPolityce