Incoming bonfires

Predictions that not all of Michavila’s colleagues agree (the dean of Spanish advisers, José Luis Sanchis, believes there will be a draw on the national stage despite more votes to the left, as he explained at El Country last Sunday) to get married. Surveys Mazón receives monthly, some of which we have already reported here. The last one to PP Clear victory over PSOE (36 seats for the popular, 27 seats for the socialists) and the absolute majority of the right-wing bloc: 51 MPs for the total of the popular and Vox, 48 for the PSOE, Compromís and Podemos, and together will lose four. The number of seats they currently hold on the Corts, which would leave them in opposition after two legislatures are in office.

The numerical summary is that PP would regain the lost vote in 2019 in favor of Ciudadanos, thanks to the disappearance of oranges, almost doubled the result obtained in those elections. Vox (15 seats) will continue to rise despite its expectations fluctuating from one survey to the next. Compromise will be in good shape despite repeated earthquakes in this legislature, because traumatic breakup Monica Oltra or Mireia Mollà, until the unfortunate spectacle of their primaries, only lost one seat compared to what they now have. Even if Podemos exceeded the 5% bar, it would let three deputies down. And the PSOE would not be able to make up for it with its own rise. Loss of results of Botànic partners. He would stay with 27 deputies, as he would add a new one to the deputies he had removed in the Valencia constituency in 2019, but would lose in Alicante, which was confirmed as the Achilles heel of the socialists and confirmed as the Achilles heel of the socialists. PP is already aiming to double the number of seats.

We have already said that the poll is from a party, the poll held by the PP leadership and should be read under this premise. However, besides the numbers it reflects, it also points to some important background currents that can be opposite and of equal value (which is why Michavila says swords are high here). The most important of these is St. increased mobilization of the right-wing electorate, against the ongoing lethargy of the left. José Miguel Iribas, the teacher who never agreed to do election polls for any client, but always did them for our friends and always nailed the results, used to say that the key question in polls is to understand what might happen in an election. Who do you think will win the election? It’s not “who wants”, it’s “who believes”. In the survey I’m talking about, there are more people who believe that PP will win for the first time in the Valencian Community, albeit very slightly.

HE perception of the victory of the right It is undoubtedly fueled by the constant shouting of that machine that polarizes society, Madrid, its politicians, journalists and commentators. But it also stems from the confusion of the left, which runs this community, just three months before the elections. PSOE, Compromís and Podemos are constantly repeating what they want. “A third Botany”. However, there is the problem that the message that citizens believe to be strong is currently blank even though they won’t be able to find any ballots that read “Botànic” on 28M. Because in 2015 the left sought a vote to end four decades of right-wing governments that have ended several heads of the Generalitat and countless ministers, mayors and public officials on trial for corruption. And in 2019, strengthen the impoverished Welfare State to stabilize social policies. Cuts from the Great Recession and for underfunding and repositioning the Community of Valencia on the political and economic map of Spain. But now we just hear what they want to repeat, which can be very interesting for those who are in the Government and don’t want to leave it, but to mobilize those who have to vote for them is a bad message in itself. ‘Botany’ was a means, not the end, that is, it is about ‘why’, not ‘what’. And they haven’t said anything clear about it yet. The right has a message that might sound rude, but it’s direct: Discard the left. The left, caught in the bagpipes of the primaries, which forced them to look at their belly instead of going out for months, cannot form a clear discourse for now. Drawn by circumstances.

Ximo Puig is in a maze. If “swords are in the air” in the Valencian Community, it is because citizens’ perception of him is much better than that of Pedro Sánchez. But the paradox is that if you want the numbers to continue in Palau, the most important asset is precisely the social policies implemented by the Sánchez Government. How do you do a campaign where you have to show the measurements of someone you want to cover at the same time? Twisting the cycle even more, valuing his government’s rule, as he insists on his own government’s rule, leads Puig to talk about “Botànic” over and over again. But his partners in that «Botànic», both Compromís and Podemos, seem convinced: to survive, they have to charge more against the PSOE than the PP. Baldoví or Illueca, the two mediocre candidates, are more comfortable than Feijóo or Mazón in shooting Sánchez or Puig, the first with no schedule other than that of La Sexta, and the second with no other direction than that determined by Pablo Iglesias. The only person attacking PP here is Bishop Munilla, who is frankly extraordinary.

All this confusion on the left is causing a great deal of confusion in the socialist ranks, whose leaders cannot quite see what the campaign line is. Many people think that the legislature is already depreciated. It is true that much has been done in difficult times. But in key areas such as the Economy, Equity or Housing, there are also important waterways that are fully managed by the same partners whose candidates have become so critical. In short, putting all the focus on evaluation now runs the risk of getting stuck in the past rather than predicting the future. But above all, at the socialist party convention, doubts are growing over whether Puig’s strategy of acting as if Botànic were truly a coalition rather than demanding all possible votes from the left for the PSOE, and whether the math was valid when the polls opened. don’t talk, he’s not so naive. The result is surprising paralyzed with elections just around the corner. Where are the socialist mayors? Everyone is at home. And MPs? Missing like never before. Or the provincial directorate? Unknown. And the game? In a induced coma.

true in this sense mason clearer It is campaigning to mobilize voters by multiplying actions with militants. And talking about Puig botanicalThe PP candidate always refrains from talking about Vox, although according to all polls he will not be able to run the country at all without the help of the far right. According to today’s figures, even if PP is the party that received the most votes in the 28 May elections, its result will be far from a quorum. Staying in Palau without joining Consell To the Abascal corps. It touches right at the level of Andalusia (Moreno Bonilla won an absolute majority) or Madrid (where Ayuso needed Vox’s game to invest but didn’t have), as the polls didn’t put the Valencian Community. but it’s even worse than Castilla y Leon, which the far-right rules together with the PP. Despite its repeated alleged falsehood, Mazón has come up with a program that could appeal to a wide range of moderate voters, and is also very adept at avoiding any explanation as to how it will turn out. run a far-right Council. And while the left can’t force him to clarify what his red lines will be, Vox smacks at the prospect of playing carpet in a “premium” ensemble. What to do? If you’ve seen the video of Ortega Smith playing the game in Alicante this Friday in this newspaper, you might get an idea. They were telling the gentleman about their fire party, and turning to the gallery, he said they would take the opportunity to burn “gender ideology or climate fanaticism” since they already had command. Then he turned to his people and added that they too “could burn a councilor,” whether out of carelessness or on purpose, I don’t know. Some start drooling as soon as they hear the word “bonfire”. And many will think they are just macho. But it is not. They are much more than that. They are a danger.