Our goal in the fall vote is to repeat the 2019 result because it’s hard to find new voters with such a strong polarization; our job is to get people closest to PiS out of the waiting room – says Norbert Maliszewski, head of the Government Analysis Center, to Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
Is PiS preparing to lose?
Maliszewski denied that PiS was preparing to lose the election. He stressed that although the reality is different from 2015, there are many arguments that confirm that the opposition decides prematurely on the outcome of the elections.
First of all, it is important to remember that polls do not reflect the whole perspective, which is why the structure of elections should also be studied. People who have traditionally been closest to PiS can today, for various reasons, not express their support for any party or even retreat into passivity. It is this group of voters who can support us again, although they are now in the so-called waiting room – our main task is to get them out of this waiting room. Therefore, our potential is much greater than the polls show
– he said.
“Merely listing the support says nothing.”
The daily asked Maliszewski about the “DGP” election simulations, which show that in various configurations, the entire opposition, excluding the Confederacy, wins about 50 percent. support.
Maliszewski replied that “just adding up the support doesn’t determine anything.” He judged that now – as in 2019 before the European Parliament elections – we are dealing with a certain “survey bonus”, which is usually earned by new political entities. He emphasized that “this bonus is disappearing soon”, and that we still need to be able to make joint lists and work out a program. He noted that “we all see disputes between Donald Tusk and Szymon Hołownia.”
PiS’ goal is to “repeat the result of 2019”.
He estimated that the permanent recovery is 40 percent. support is a difficult but possible goal to achieve.
However, our voters did not switch to other parties. Added to this is the improving economic situation: although inflation is high, it will be much lower than in the third quarter. Moods will improve. In addition, PiS is still seen as a party close to the people
– added.
When Maliszewski was asked what result PiS “was aiming for”, he noted that “the goal is to repeat the result of 2019”.
With such strong polarization it is difficult to find new voters
he said.
“Clear manipulation and attempt to demobilize voters”
According to the head of the Government Analysis Center, assuming Law and Justice loses the election, the opposition is showing that it “has not learned from the defeat of Bronisław Komorowski in 2015”.
Anticipating the outcome a few months before the election is a clear manipulation and an attempt to demobilize voters
– assessed Norbert Maliszewski.
I am not saying that we will win definitively in the autumn, but I would like to point out that the narrative of the opposition’s imminent victory is premature
he stressed.
The “DGP” interlocutor pointed out that a slight increase in support for PiS in the polls “is due to the fact that some wallet voters, sensitive to changes in the economic situation, re-indicate us in the surveys.” At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Law and Justice also received a lot of support.
We took advantage of the flag effect. It didn’t come from voters from other parties shifting their votes to PiS, but the undecided and passive came back to us
he explained.
Changes to the Electoral Act
When asked about changes to the electoral law, Maliszewski said it was only about action to increase turnout.
The state should give the opportunity to vote, especially for the elderly or people with disabilities
– assessed the head of the RCA.
Delivery ideas come from experience with vaccination strategy
– he said, pointing out that polls show that Poles view this type of activity positively.
Why did PiS decide to implement changes now and not last year, for example? The interlocutor of the “DGP” pointed out that the current government period is “very difficult”: war, pandemic, inflation.
The space for this kind of activity has now arisen
he explained.
“Security, Credibility, Wallets”
Norbert Maliszewski pointed out that PiS “is able to maintain social programs and create new ones in a difficult situation”, which was evidenced by the problems with coal or energy prices, and this translated into the ruling camp’s assessment.
The head of the RCA pointed out that PiS, but probably also the opposition, will be guided in the campaign by three things: “security, credibility and wallet”.
For our part, the programs will be well targeted and counted. It’s about solving specific problems, not making broad promises – as Tusk does, who is completely unreliable even when it comes to pension promises
– added.
It is important for Poland to see that PiS is a credible party. Who understands people well and has ideas – these ideas don’t always cost a lot, and yet they solve important social problems
he stressed.
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aja/PAP, “DGP”
Source: wPolityce