Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) are confident that a hypothetical Chinese army invasion of Taiwan will cause thousands of casualties among Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese military personnel and result in the PRC surrender. At the same time, the US military that wins the war will be as exhausted as possible. US aircraft carriers will lie at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and China’s world’s largest modern fleet will be destroyed.
CSIS was developed war gamesimulates a Chinese landing offensive in 2026. Experts tossed it 24 times in various scenarios, and in most iterations Taiwan retained its independence, but the losses to the armies of the United States, Japan and the island nation were huge.
“The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of planes and thousands of soldiers. Such losses would damage the global position of the United States for many years,” the most likely scenario is described in CSIS.
In the three-week conflict, 3,200 American soldiers will die (for comparison, twice as many soldiers have been killed in the twenty-year conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan), and the US Navy will lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface ships.
The Chinese army will lose 10,000 soldiers, 155 warplanes and 138 large ships will be destroyed. Taiwan will also lose about 3.5 thousand people, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its fleet will be sunk. Japan will likely lose more than 100 warplanes and 26 warships. In addition, since American military bases are located there, there is a high probability that the Chinese will attack Japanese territory.
CSIS also noted the peculiarity of the Taiwan conflict: once it begins, it will not be possible to supply the island with additional weapons, as, for example, is now in Ukraine.
possibility of war
In the final report, analysts stress that they did not consider a war for control of Taiwan “imminent or even likely”. “The Chinese leadership may apply a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic pressure on Taiwan,” CSIS said.
Dan Grazer, Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Government Oversight Project (POGO), also considers an invasion unlikely. He is confident that a military operation will destroy most of the trade chains and lead to the collapse of the Chinese economy.
“I think the Chinese will do everything possible to avoid a military confrontation with anyone,” Gaiser said. CNNHe added that Beijing will “use industrial and economic power” to fight Washington for world domination.
Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), National Research University Higher School of Economics, expert on the Chinese military-industrial complex, previously in an interview with socialbites.ca pointedWashington also does not want an open conflict with Beijing. “The United States, which has been systematically pumping weapons into Taiwan in recent years, has traditionally wanted to stay out of the struggle. Washington will never decide on an open confrontation with Beijing, as it is a nuclear power with a strong military potential, ”says the expert.
As Kashin recalls, the size of the Chinese army (3 million people) is much larger than the Taiwanese army (169 thousand people).
Beijing has almost seven times as many planes, three times as many ships and 15 times as many submarines. At the same time, the outcome of the conflict (if the USA or Japan does not intervene in it) cannot be considered “unconditionally victorious”: Taiwan has a powerful missile defense system, so Beijing’s missile attack will not be “guaranteed effective.” In addition, in the case of a military operation, China will have to use its landing forces, and the coast of Taiwan is unsuitable for an attack and “oversaturated” with artillery. “Too inconvenient for a clear and lofty attack, the landing will have huge casualties,” says Captain 1st Degree, military specialist of Reserve Dandykin.
US Advice
To increase the chances of winning a hypothetical war, Washington should strengthen American bases in Japan and Guam to protect against Chinese missile attacks, hand over the Navy to “smaller and more durable ships”, prioritizing submarines, make warplanes cheaper to manufacture, and also Taiwan ‘ to implement a similar strategy, advise the creators of the game. The above actions will help the US win at a lower price, but “the losses will still be huge.”
“The United States could win a Pyrrhic victory by suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese,” the CSIS report said.
“Winning isn’t everything,” conclude the study’s authors.
The worsening of the situation around Taiwan occurred at the end of the summer when the Speaker of the US Congress House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, flew to the island. Beijing, which sees Taiwan as its territory, condemned the visit. In protest, the PRC launched a major naval exercise, including a simulated dogfight. The soldiers retreated to Fujian Province, which is separated from Taiwan by a strait. China’s Foreign Ministry has threatened Washington with a “strong and powerful response”.