Agatha Desmarais, global forecasting director for the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, is confident that Russia and China can win the fight against the United States and its sanctions policy. Column in an American magazine foreign affairs “The golden age of US sanctions may soon be over,” he wrote.
The material states that “Washington’s indulgence in these punitive measures provoked world resistance.”
While Washington “relies more and more on sanctions”, many rogue states are putting in place defense mechanisms that work quite well.
According to Desmarais, Iran’s disconnect from SWIFT in 2012, the first sanctions against Moscow in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, and the trade war with Beijing in 2017 led to the emergence of a new world phenomenon – resistance to sanctions. contributed to its emergence.
“The ability of the US to impose sanctions on other countries derives from the dominance of the dollar and the degree of US control over global financial channels. It makes sense for the opponents of states to seek ways to balance these advantages,” the columnist stressed.
Desmarais recalled that in 1998 President Bill Clinton complained that Washington had gone too far with restrictions. He was concerned that the country “may look like we want to sanction anyone who disagrees with us”. According to the columnist, then these fears were practically unfounded and this cannot be said about the current situation.
Response to sanctions
In the late 1990s, US sanctions forced Muammar Gaddafi to extradite the suspects of the two bombings and agree to liquidate Libya’s arsenal of nuclear and chemical weapons, arguing that they were an effective tool.
“Since then, however, the pace of enforcement has increased significantly, and US adversaries have responded with preemptive measures to circumvent potential restrictions,” the expert continued.
One way countries can survive despite sanctions is through bilateral currency swaps. Another way for countries to protect themselves from sanctions is to develop their own payment systems. About 1,300 banks from more than 100 countries have already joined the CIPS system. If Russia and China are cut off from SWIFT, they have a worthy alternative.
The third tool US opponents use to evade sanctions is digital currency. China leads the way, with nearly 300 million people using the digital yuan in more than 20 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
“Surprisingly well done”
Author of the German edition deutschlandfunk In response, Sandra Pfister noted that Russia continued to “surprise the West with its resilience” as the sanctions failed to break the Russian economy.
“So far, the Russian economy has coped surprisingly well with sanctions. Many economists predicted a sharp collapse for it in the spring, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting a drop of between eight and nine percent. Now the IMF says that despite the sanctions, the Russian economy will shrink by only 3.5 percent.”
We can say that Russia has successfully coped with foreign influences in the past 10 months, and many economists who have made pessimistic forecasts now say they are wrong, Pfister said.
The negative predictions of Western experts on the Russian economy did not come true, declaration and the head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin. For 11 months of the year, the decrease in the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation amounted to only 2%.
“The negative predictions of Western analysts and experts did not come true. “During 11 months, the decline in GDP was only around 2 percent compared to the same period in 2021 – a little over 2 percent,” he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Strategic Development and National Projects Council that by the end of 2022 the decline in GDP could fall as low as 2.5%, which is less than the 2.9% he previously stated.