UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg arrived in Sana’a to hold talks on the implementation and strengthening of the nationwide ceasefire regime in effect in the republic since 2 April. This is the agency’s first visit to the country since being appointed to this post in August 2021. The press service of the special embassy office claims that it will mainly focus on dialogue with the Houthi rebels from the Ansar Allah paramilitary group.
The reason for Grundberg’s arrival was mutual accusations of violating the ceasefire established between the parties to the conflict – representatives of the UN-recognised Yemeni government and the Houthis.
Therefore, the republican authorities reported attacks on government forces near the city of Marib, and the rebels recorded violations near the port of Hodeidah.
As part of his visit, Grundberg hopes to invite representatives of both sides to resolve thorny issues and expand the ceasefire agreement. The document currently includes permission to supply fuel to Hodeidah and the resumption of passenger flights from the airport in Sana’a (both cities are under Houthi control), but the special envoy is calling for roads to be opened in Taiz province. and several other areas where the rebels held communications.
At the same time, on the eve of his visit to Sana’a, Grundberg held separate meetings with the representatives of the warring parties in Oman, particularly touching on the issues of maintaining the ceasefire, restoring international air traffic and humanitarian aid to Syria. republic, on whose territory hostilities continued for more than seven years.
How did they achieve a ceasefire in Yemen?
A nationwide ceasefire in Yemen needs to last at least 60 days. The corresponding agreement was reached on the backdrop of a new military operation in the country by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The clashes, which began in late March in response to a Houthis attack on an oil depot and infrastructure in Riyadh, led to a series of airstrikes on rebel-held areas.
According to “Ain al-Insania”, the Yemeni Center for the Protection of Human Rights, the total number of victims of the civil war among civilians is more than 46,000, including more than 4,000 children.
The Houthis did not participate in the negotiation process in Saudi Arabia, but ultimately supported the establishment of a ceasefire on the republic’s territory. True, the Ansar Allah leadership previously criticized the initiative to create the Presidential Governing Council of Yemen, announced in Riyadh by the former president of the republic, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
According to the politician, this body should take all the powers to run the state in the transition period in order to contribute to the resolution of the conflict. The Houthis noted that peace in Yemen is possible only if the foreign troops withdraw and the aggression ceases – all this mainly concerns Saudi Arabia.
How does Riyadh avoid the condemnation of war?
But despite statements by the rebels through the UN or other international organisations, there is usually no demand for Riyadh to end military action. The only thing the organization says is that it is unlikely to come out of the current situation in Yemen with military operations.
Why was Saudi Arabia not criticized for its military campaign in Yemen – experts answer differently. Thus, orientalist and political scientist Elena Suponina,
Currently, there is a heavy consensus in the international community regarding the Saudi Arabian military operation in Yemen.
According to him, starting with the UN Security Council resolution of 2015 and ending with the resolutions of the national governments, no one has come to condemn Riyadh harshly and even more so to take any action.
“This position on Riyadh’s operation in Yemen is due to the fact that the Saudi side campaigns very actively against the Houthis and Iran in international platforms, including the media and lobbyists in the USA and Europe, and also plays an important role. The role of the Organization of Nations oil exporters. As a result, the oil component, along with the presence of serious investments and capital abroad, helped Riyadh to ensure that the condemnation of the conflict in Yemen was directed not at them, but at their opponents, the Houthis,” socialbites.ca.
At the same time, Andrei Chuprigin, senior lecturer at the HSE School of Oriental Studies, reminded that Saudi Arabia has always been and continues to be a system-forming actor not only in the Middle East but also in the rest of the world.
This means that relations with Riyadh are very important to the United States, a united Europe, and to some extent even Russia.
In addition, the attitude towards Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen, formed by the same Washington all over the world, is that Riyadh is waging a war with the “terrorist” Iran on the territory of the country and whether there is collateral damage. , then it’s okay, don’t do anything. This is a cynical and inhuman position, but it is a fact. Therefore, there are no sanctions against Saudi Arabia as it has shattered at least the entire north of Yemen.”
What are the chances of resolving the conflict?
Experts say that, given that the main negotiations often take place without the participation of the Houthis, the final proposals to overcome the crisis are unlikely to be approved by the rebels, and this will likely lead to continued hostilities.
From the perspective of political scientist Elena Suponina, Saudi Arabia’s seven-year campaign in Yemen showed that the kingdom and its allies failed to gain a full military advantage, although there were initially reports from Riyadh that hostilities would not last long. and quickly leads to victory.
“The Saudi side has now started negotiations with the Houthis again. This time Riyadh is ready to discuss some compromise options. The dialogue has a good chance of succeeding, but it’s pretty shaky. Most likely, the probability of a settlement is about 50/50, but too many factors speak in favor of a possible continuation of the conflict.
However, according to Andrey Chuprigin from the Higher School of Economics,
This truce was enforced and enforced.
According to the expert, nothing important will change as long as Abdurabbu Mansur Hadi is on the political scene in Yemen.
“In the presence of this figure, since he is perceived as a puppet of Saudi Arabia, it is unlikely to be possible to agree on an issue. Moreover, there is no serious political figure or group of people who can unite the population of the country with their authorities in Yemen today. Northern and southern Yemen are now so far away. “They will most likely lead to the division of the country into two parts or at least two fully autonomous federal districts. Therefore, no serious success should be expected from the ceasefire, it is possible to violate it in the near future, “he said.