“I converted the result of the poll into seats and a simulation based on the structure in the districts of 2019 shows that PiS would have 229 seats. It is enough that at least some of Kukiz’15’s voters were won as a result of an agreement with this party, then PiS would have a majority. Now it is important to show especially to PiS voters that the scenario of winning in 2023 is possible,” says Prof. Norbert Maliszewski, State Secretary at the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, head of the Government Analyzes Centre.
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wPolityce.pl: According to the latest Social Changes survey for the wPolityce.pl portal, the United Right wins and can count on a whopping 40 percent. support. What does this study reveal?
Prof. Norbert Maliszewski: Two pieces of information are valuable there. The first is that during these difficult fall times, PiS voters went to the waiting room of indecisive or even passive people, they are likely to return. This is because despite the opposition’s announcement that the government cannot cope with the prices of energy, gas or coal, there are decisions and actions that contradict this. We have frozen gas and energy prices and created a system where more and more people have coal for the winter. In this way we regain freedom of choice, credibility (which is also reflected in other polls) and confidence, as evidenced by the increased confidence in Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Inflation data is also important as inflation is falling for the first time since February. This is an incentive to feel that, despite high inflation, the situation is under control.
And what is the other important information that comes out of the survey?
I converted the results of the poll into seats and a simulation based on the structure in the districts of 2019 shows that PiS would have 229 seats. It is enough that at least some of Kukiz’15’s voters were won as a result of an agreement with this party, then PiS would have a majority. Now it is important to show PiS voters in particular that the scenario of winning in 2023 is possible. Moreover, this contradicts the narratives built by the opposition and the media favoring that PiS has no chance of winning a year before the election. It is just a way to exert the social influence of the majority, which would be right that PiS is in a very difficult situation and this party is only waiting for defeat. This is clearly a methodological and substantive error. That cannot be completed a year before the elections, because the situation will probably be very different. And the campaign also has a different kind of specificity, for example, the leader of such a race wins.
Our research shows that the Citizens’ Coalition loses one percentage point, but still retains 28 percent. support. What causes it? Poles have already forgotten Tusk’s rule?
The elevations of the Platform are due to the polarization effect. If there is a race where the leader of the opposition is the PO, then this party has a chance to cross the 30 percent threshold. The government cannot convince these voters because they see what is going on through a party lens. Any decision such as vacation leave or freezing energy prices will not necessarily be appreciated by them. It should be remembered that there is another effect: parties like PSL, Lewica and Polska 2050 will lose. The aid scheme, despite the growth of the Civic Coalition, may not necessarily be favorable to the opposition in terms of seat distribution. As I said, the scenarios can still differ. A year before the elections, nothing can prejudge the outcome. On the other hand, it is a mistake and a false narrative to deny the United Right the chance to win, because such scenarios are possible.
Thank you for the conversation.
Mateusz Majewski spoke
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Source: wPolityce